Monday, November 21, 2011

Bowl me over with projections

Bowl eligibility and game list

Keeping it short and sweet.  Here's the list of bowl eligible teams as of tonight.   Based on records & remaining games, I also am assuming that NC State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, UTEP, Marshall, Air Force, Mississippi St., Tennessee and Utah St. will be bowl eligible.

Conference champion assumptions made:

  • Oklahoma St. = Big 12
  • West Virginia = Big East
  • Clemson = ACC
  • Wisconsin = Big Ten
  • LSU = SEC
  • Oregon = Pac-12
  • Houston will be a non-AQ top 12 team
After the slots filled by conference champs lost to the bowl games, the selection order is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange

BCS Championship: Alabama vs. LSU
Rose: Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Fiesta: Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford
Orange: Clemson vs. West Virginia
Sugar: Michigan St. vs. Houston

Now the rest:

New Mexico: San Diego St. vs. Ohio
Idaho: Temple vs. Utah St.
New Orleans: UL-Lafayette (confirmed) vs. UTEP
St. Petersburg: Pittsburgh vs. Marshall
Poinsettia: Boise St. vs. Louisiana Tech
Las Vegas: TCU vs. UCLA
Hawai'i: Tulsa vs. Nevada
Independence: NC State vs. Wyoming
Little Caesar's: Illinois vs. Toledo
Belk: North Carolina vs. Cincinnati
Military: Wake Forest vs. Iowa St.
Holiday: Texas A&M vs. Utah
Champs Sports: Virginia vs. Notre Dame
Alamo: Baylor vs. Washington
Armed Forces: BYU (confirmed) vs. SMU
Pinstripe: Missouri vs. Rutgers
Music City: Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi St.
Insight: Kansas St. vs. Ohio St.
Texas: Texas vs. Northwestern
Sun: Florida St. vs. Arizona St.
Liberty: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Kraft: California vs. Purdue
Chick-Fil-A: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
Ticket City: Penn St. vs. Air Force
Outback: South Carolina vs. Michigan
Capital One: Nebraska vs. Georgia
Gator: Iowa vs. Florida
Cotton: Oklahoma vs. Arkansas
BBVA Compass: Southern Miss vs. FIU
GoDaddy.com:  Arkansas St. (confirmed) vs. Northern Illinois

Notes

  • The Champs Sports Bowl will exercise its 1-in-4 option with Notre Dame.
  • The Liberty Bowl will exercise its 1-in-4 option to choose a Big East team to assure the Big East an SEC opponent in a bowl game
  • New Mexico will fill its Pac-12 slot with a MAC team
  • BBVA Compass will fill its matchup as Sun Belt vs. C-USA
  • Kraft Fights Hunger fills its WAC slot with an at-large team (Purdue)
  • Ticket City fills its C-USA slot with an at-large team (Air Force)


2 comments:

bigddan11 said...

I think Hawaii will be bowl eligible. They should beat Tulane this week. The requirement is yu have to have 6 wins, not a winning record, and a victory over Tulane puts Hawaii at 6-6 (before losing to BYU). I agree with most of your picks, but I see Hawaii being in the Hawaii Bowl and Utah State headed to the Kraft Fights Hunger Bowl.

Matt said...

Teams that schedule 13 games must have 7 wins. Hawai'i will not be bowl eligible unless they beat Tulane and BYU. Don't assume that they'll lose to BYU either. UH has something to play for. BYU already has its bowl desitination set.

This is from last year, but clearly notes how 13 game regular seasons affect bowl eligibility guidelines
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/9894110/ns/sports-college_football/

UCLA is in a unique place. At 6-5, at this moment they are eligible. If they lose to USC and don't play in the Pac-12 title, they'll be eligible. If they lose to USC and lose in the Pac-12 title game, at 6-7 they'll require an NCAA waiver to participate in a bowl since a 13th game was not guaranteed to them before the season starts. When Miami (OH) applied for this waiver a few years ago, they were not given it because the MAC had enough teams to fill its tie-ins. The Pac-12 may not, so UCLA may be in limbo.