Friday, November 30, 2012

Bowl Guesses, Part Deux

Now that we know Georgia Tech is going to a bowl at 6-7 and that we have 70 other eligible teams, I'll try this again.  Going to make the following assumptions:

* Northern Illinois wins MAC, which means Kent St. does not go to a BCS bowl.  I'm not sure that they would even if Kent St. wins.  The loss by Rutgers last night I think hurt them a little bit.
* Stanford wins the Pac-12
* Alabama wins the SEC.
* Florida St. wins the ACC
* UCF wins C-USA.  This affects the selections of the four of C-USA's bowl tie-in.
* Kansas St. wins the Big 12
* Nebraska wins the Big Ten
* Arkansas St. wins the Sun Belt
* Boise St. wins but doesn't move enough in BCS rankings to be an at-large option
* Connecticut loses to Cincinnati and does not go to a bowl
* Pittsburgh beats USF, becomes #72 and takes a Big East bowl slot
* Florida, as a top 4 BCS team who does not win a conference, automatically goes to a BCS bowl.  I'm not sure that Oregon will get there, but I do believe they'll be selected by the BCS.
* The Sugar will get 1st chance to replace Alabama.  After that selection, the at-large order is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange.
* I have the Sugar selecting Oklahoma over Clemson, unless Oklahoma is upset by TCU.

Selection notes
* I have two MAC teams sitting at home: Bowling Green & Central Michigan.  Stinks for them.  I did juggle the MAC selections to get good matchups between my projected MAC champ & WAC champ Utah St., plus Louisiana Tech, ranked most of this year, and Kent St.  I figured that without a Big Ten team opposite the MAC in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, the bowl would request to take the closest available team and that is Toledo.
* Heard that Arizona is requesting to not play in the New Mexico Bowl because they have a top draw men's basketball home game later that night vs. Clemson and are requesting a different bowl game.
* I believe the Big East will forego their BBVA Compass Bowl selection so that Pitt will not be sent there for the 3rd straight year.
* With the ACC and Army not able to fill their tie-ins for the Military Bowl, I have the MAC filling a backup selection and the Sun Belt backfilling as an at-large.
* I thought of the possibility of the Big East asking the Russell Athletic Bowl to take Cincinnati instead of Rutgers due to RU leaving the conference, but that could lead to a regular season rematch between Virginia Tech and Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl, so I switched NC State and VT.
* Also thought about the possibility of West Virginia playing in the Pinstripe Bowl against Syracuse due to the regional nature of that rivalry, though I believe WVU's travel rep wins out even with a trip to California.
* For that same reason (ie. Oregon St. having a solid travel rep), I have them leapfrogging UCLA for the Alamo Bowl slot.  Should have plenty of Bruin fans in San Diego County.
* I did consider the possibility of Duke vs. Vanderbilt in the Music City Bowl, but I believe that they'll look to Ole Miss to fill some extra hotel rooms and seats.  UCF vs. Vanderbilt should be a great game too.
* I believe Clemson will go back to Atlanta, where they started the season.  I have them vs. Mississippi St. to avoid the repeat of the Palmetto State matchup.  Wouldn't be stunned if South Carolina was selected though.
* I really wanted to make sure that San Jose St. was placed in a game.  A game vs. UL-Monroe should be an interesting contrast.  SJSU played solid defense most of the year and outlasted Louisiana Tech, a team who plays a similar hyperspeed style to ULM.

Confirmed selections in bold

New Mexico: Arizona St. vs. Nevada
Famous Idaho Potato: Utah St. vs. Northern Illinois
Poinsettia: BYU vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg: Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina
New Orleans: Rice vs. UL-Lafayette
Las Vegas: Boise St. vs. USC
Hawai'i: SMU vs. Fresno St.
Little Caesar's: Toledo vs. Western Kentucky
Military: Middle Tennessee vs. Ohio
Belk: NC State vs. Cincinnati
Holiday: West Virginia vs. UCLA
Independence: Louisiana Tech vs. Kent St.
Russell Athletic: Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
Texas: TCU vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces: Air Force vs. Tulsa
Pinstripe: Baylor vs. Syracuse
Kraft Fights Hunger: Navy vs. Arizona
Alamo: Oklahoma St. vs. Oregon St.
Buffalo Wild Wings: Texas Tech vs. Wisconsin
Music City: Duke vs. Ole Miss
Sun: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Liberty: UCF vs. Vanderbilt
Chick-Fil-A: Clemson vs. Mississippi St.
Gator: Michigan St. vs. South Carolina
Heart of Dallas: Iowa St. vs. Purdue
Capital One: Michigan vs. Georgia
Outback: Northwestern vs. LSU
Cotton: Texas vs. Texas A&M
BBVA Compass: UL-Monroe vs. San Jose St. Ball St. vs. Arkansas St.

Fiesta: Kansas St. vs. Oregon
Rose: Nebraska vs. Stanford
Orange: Florida St. vs. Louisville
Sugar: Florida vs. Oklahoma
BCS Championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama

No comments: