Sunday, November 28, 2010

My Bowl Predictions

Made a few assumptions
  • Both Washington and Middle Tennessee would win next week
  • Stanford will be in the top four and clinch a BCS at-large spot
  • Ohio St. and Arkansas will be the two at-large teams who are freely chosen by the bowls
  • Notre Dame at 7-5 takes the Champs Sports Bowl
    becomes an at-large
  • West Virginia beats Rutgers, end 9-3, two wins ahead of Notre Dame
  • Connecticut wins the Big East
I tried to take into account travel and to avoid regular season rematches. I rematched Miami (FL) and Pitt because the Pac-10 would not have enough teams to fill this slot and I did not believe that the Sun Bowl would take a MAC team, nor that it would match up two ACC teams.

The teams with *** are teams filling bowls as an at-large. In the cases of Middle Tennessee and Army, they have backup agreements with these bowls

Humanitarian: Toledo vs. Nevada
New Mexico: BYU vs. Fresno St.
New Orleans: UTEP vs. FIU
St. Petersburg: Louisville vs. Southern Miss
Las Vegas: Utah vs. Ohio***
Poinsettia: Navy vs. San Diego St.
Hawai'i: Hawai'i vs. Tulsa
Little Caesar's: Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee***
Independence: Boston College vs. Air Force
Champs Sports: NC State vs. Notre Dame West Virginia
Insight: Missouri vs. Penn St.
Military: Clemson vs. East Carolina
Texas: Texas Tech vs. Northwestern
Alamo: Oklahoma St. vs. Arizona
Armed Forces: SMU vs. Army***
Pinstripe: Kansas St. vs. Syracuse
Music City: Maryland vs. Tennessee
Holiday: Texas A&M vs. Washington
Meineke: North Carolina vs. West Virginia USF
Sun: Miami (FL) vs. Pittsburgh Notre Dame***
Liberty: UCF vs. Georgia
Chick-Fil-A: Florida St. vs. Mississippi St.
Ticket City: Baylor vs. Illinois
Outback: Iowa vs. Alabama
Capital One: Michigan St. vs. South Carolina
Gator: Michigan vs. Florida Miami (OH) vs. Troy
Cotton: Nebraska vs. LSU
BBVA Compass: USF Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky
Kraft Fights Hunger: Boise St. vs. Georgia Tech***

Rose: Wisconsin vs. TCU
Sugar: Ohio St. vs. Arkansas
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Connecticut
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Stanford
BCS Championship: Auburn vs. Oregon

Under this scenario, Temple and Western Michigan would not play in bowls. There are reports that 6-6 teams can jump ahead of 7+ win teams, so a Georgia Tech team can jump a Temple team.

Any thoughts? What games look good to you?


csherwood said...

Matt, NCAA rules require bowls that have open spots from being unable to fill primary bowl obligations to take above .500 teams, and they can only take 6-6 teams if no above .500 teams exist. Therefore, Temple has to fill a bowl spot before a 6-6 Georgia Tech or Middle Tennessee State.

Matt said...

Unfortunately, that rule has been eliminated according to several articles I've read. The rule that once benefited the non-AQ conferences was abolished this spring.

christopher5602m said...

is ND a lock for the champs bowl? i thought there was a 1 win rule and if wvu beats rutgers(everybody else does) they would be 9-3 vs 7-5 for ND

Matt said...

Chris, you are correct. There is a one win rule for the Champs. I'll adjust it assuming a WV win vs. Rutgers.

christopher5602m said...

cuse go to pinstripe even if connecticut loses at south florida?

Chris Dewar said...

I am hoping that both Boise State and Nevada take Pac 10 bowl slots (Boise to the Holiday Bowl, Nevada to the Las Vegas Bowl, or one of them to the Sun Bowl). That would require Washington State to win the Apple Cup though. Fresno can take the Humanitarian Bowl, and send Ohio/Temple/Louisiana Tech to the New Mexico Bowl.

apnd1382 said...

It has been known since last year when the Big East signed the deal with the Champs Sports that the only rules regarding Notre Dame being picked were:
1. ND must be at least 7-5
2. WITHIN TWO WINS of Big East teams
3. Only once during the four-year span can ND be picked.

I tried to get some old articles on it, too.

christopher5602m said...

matt,just read on syracuse scout board that the rule is a 2 win rule now for ND at 7 wins.(its in the cbs sports thread about ND

christopher5602m said...

how are the wac bowls assigned? understand hawaii with that bowl but between boise and nevada and fresno how are the other 3 determined?

Matt said...

WAC previously was done by geography. Now that they have one bowl tie-in vs. AQ conf (Kraft Fights Hunger), that would choose 1st, but if they won't have a Pac-10 team, they might do geography again.

Matt said...

@Chris Dewar - Boise and Nevada must fill WAC bowl slots. Since the conference has four tie-ins and four eligible teams, that would hold them to those bowls, regardless of Pac-10 outcomes.

If La. Tech were to win, it could help, but it might not.

Chris Dewar said...

Didn't realize the WAC was tied in to the Kraft Bowl this year. There goes the notion of Boise and Nevada getting interesting bowl games. :)