Monday, April 29, 2024

Additional Context For My 2024 Early Season CFB TV Guesses

Some additional context with the final set of CFB TV guesses for the early season found here, here and here:

* Each SEC school is supposed to have one game on ESPN+/SEC+.  With additional changes due to TV announcements over the first three weeks, here's when I am assuming each SEC school will have their ESPN+ game:
  • 8/31: Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
  • 9/7: Florida, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
  • 9/14: Tennessee, Texas
  • 11/2: Oklahoma
  • 11/16: Alabama, Kentucky
  • 11/23: Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina
* While we wait for Oregon State and Washington State to finalize their CW contract, I'm expecting at least one Friday night home game for each school to alleviate some Saturday congestion.  The ACC contract between Raycom and the CW is for 13 football games also.  With the 2024 regular season having an extra week, I could see a week where an ACC game is skipped by CW to carry other events like LIV Golf plus their newly added NASCAR Xfinity Series races late September through November.  Or as you'll see below, the possibility of a ACC CW Friday night game.

* FOX supposedly has the top three selections across the season for the Big Ten.  Providing that is indeed accurate, we can safely assume that Michigan at Ohio State is top choice along with FOX announcing that they'll carry Texas at Michigan for Week 2, a game FOX worked to maintain control of in 2024 by working with the two schools to switch venues for their matchups in 2024 and 2027.

My last pick at the top is an interesting one.  FOX rarely gets a chance to show Alabama and they have their road game against Wisconsin, but Wisconsin isn't projected to be ranked coming into the season.  This is also likely to be the Crimson Tide's first "test" of the season with new head coach Kalen DeBoer.  

So...what about taking Ohio State at Oregon on 10/12 or Ohio State at Penn State on 11/2?  Ohio State at Oregon doesn't fit the "Big Noon" mold since it would be a 9am start in Eugene.  FOX could certainly take it to air later in the afternoon.  Friday night I don't believe is an option based on Ohio State's desire not to play on Fridays.  Could certainly see it as the NBC game with Stanford at Notre Dame as a lead in too.

I think FOX will stick with Alabama at Wisconsin, while Ohio State at Oregon goes to CBS on 10/12 and Ohio State at Penn State on 11/2 for NBC at night, at least right now with those two for CBS and NBC.

* FOX has the first pick of weeks where they can choose first in the Big 12 in 2024, the final year before ESPN gets primary control of football.  What game would FOX look to choose first?  Without the options of Oklahoma vs. Texas or Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, its not as cut and dry as it used to be.

Penn State at West Virginia would be an ideal candidate as the Nittany Lions are expected to be ranked, and WVU might be at the back end of the Top 25 to start the year, even if the road team being an expected Top 10 ranked team to start the year is the reason to choose it. 

Utah at Oklahoma State (Week 4), Oklahoma State at Kansas State & Arizona at Utah (both latter two Week 5) seem like they could be a big games early in the Big 12 season based on the "Way Too Early" rankings in a few places, but none has the juice you might be looking for.  Kansas State at Kansas for Week 9 is further down the schedule too.

Arizona at Kansas State is also in that mix, but it has already been reserved as a Friday night game for someone.  I'm looking through who might have those as well.

In the end, I think it will be Penn State at West Virginia that FOX looks to take off the top of the Big 12 inventory, taking their chances with other weeks down the schedule to get quality games from the Big 12. 

* Could the Big 12 still have a chance to occupy the noon Eastern slot on FOX? Maybe.  I can see the opening week being a good spot for it if Penn State at West Virginia is available to FOX, but I do think FOX will want to showcase the defending national champion Michigan in the opening Big Noon slot.  If FOX has the top Big 12 pick in either Week 4 or Week 5, and doesn't have the top Big Ten choice that week, then I could see a Big 12 game early in the day.

That said, I know what the Big Ten has been disseminating as messaging around their expected weekly TV schedule, so the Big Ten might be locked to FOX at noon ET with the Big 12 occupying the slots in mid-afternoon and evening.

* What might the Thursday night CFB TV schedule look like?  Assume ESPN unless denoted.

Week 1: North Dakota State at Colorado (ESPN), North Carolina at Minnesota (FS1)
Week 2: No game
Week 3: Arizona State at Texas State
Week 4: South Alabama at App State
Week 5: Army at Temple
Week 6: Texas State at Troy (likely on ESPN2/U due to MLB postseason with possibility of elevate to ESPN)
Week 7: Coastal Carolina at James Madison (ESPN), C-USA (ESPN2/U)
Week 8: Boston College at Virginia Tech (ESPN), Georgia State at Marshall (ESPN2/U)
Week 9: Syracuse at Pitt (ESPN), Georgia Southern at Old Dominion (ESPN2/U)
Week 10: Tulane at Charlotte
Week 11: Florida Atlantic at East Carolina (ESPN/2), App State at Coastal Carolina (ESPN/2)
Week 12: East Carolina at Tulsa
Week 13: NC State at Georgia Tech
Week 14: Memphis at Tulane

North Dakota State at Colorado happens to be CU's only home non-conference game, but exceptions have been made for Big 12 schools to have their sole non-conference game end up on national TV and not to have a member retained/3rd tier game for ESPN+.  Two examples: Tulsa at Oklahoma State on FS1 in 2017 and UNI at Iowa State in 2019.  Both may have been to help FOX Sports have a full compliment of national Big 12 games.  Now that ESPN has the member retained rights, they might have the ability to game the system.

* Here's what I'm guessing the Friday night schedule to look like this, though I don't know if its been finalized how FOX will work through its remaining WWE Smackdown requirements before its college football package airs.  I'm also not sure how this work when FOX airs any World Series games, or other MLB postseason games, and whether CFB will be skipped or move to FS1.

Every game listed with ESPN, or in the case of one week with the ACC Network or CW, has been moved to Friday.  Most of FOX's schedule hasn't been moved to Friday with the exception of any games they end up airing from the Big 12.

Week 1
ESPN: Temple at Oklahoma (confirmed) followed by TCU at Stanford
FOX/FS1: Western Michigan at Wisconsin

Week 2
ESPN: BYU at SMU
FOX/FS1: Boise State at Oregon

Week 3
ESPN: Arizona at Kansas State
FOX/FS1: Utah at Utah State

Week 4
ESPN: Stanford at Syracuse
FOX/FS1: Northwestern at Washington

Week 5
ESPN: Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
FOX/FS1: Maryland at Indiana

Week 6
ESPN: Houston at TCU
FOX: Michigan State at Oregon

If this is Oregon's homecoming weekend, Indiana at Northwestern could be a choice.  Dark horse could be Syracuse at UNLV, as UNLV often has to move home games to Friday nights if they coincide with Sundays when the Raiders are at home and not in the primetime NBC game. 

Week 7
ESPN: Memphis at South Florida
FOX: Utah at Arizona State

Week 8
ESPN: Florida State at Duke
FOX: Oklahoma State at BYU

Week 9
ESPN2: Louisville at Boston College
FOX/FS1: Washington State at Boise State

If Boise State's homecoming is this week, slot Rutgers at USC in here.

Week 10
ESPN2: South Florida at Florida Atlantic
FOX/FS1: San Diego State at Boise State

If Boise State's homecoming is this week, slot Minnesota at Illinois in here.

Week 11
ESPN2: Rice at Memphis
ACCN or CW: California at Wake Forest
FOX: Iowa at UCLA

Week 12
ESPN2: North Texas at UTSA
FOX: Houston at Arizona

Week 13
ESPN2: Temple at UTSA
FOX: Illinois at Rutgers

Week 14 (Black Friday)
ABC: Big 12 TBA, SEC TBA, AAC TBA
FOX: Big 12 TBA
CBS: Big Ten TBA
NBC: Big Ten TBA

CFB TV Guesses: 2024 Week 3 - Version 2

Last set of early season adjustments with Week 3.

Once again, if a game isn't listed, assume its being streamed on ESPN+, MW Network, etc.

Games in italics are confirmed for time and TV. 

Thursday
7:30pm ESPN: Arizona State at Texas State

Friday
8pm ESPN: Arizona at Kansas State
10pm FOX: Utah at Utah State

Saturday
12pm ABC: West Virginia at Pitt
12pm FOX: Alabama at Wisconsin
12pm ESPN: Georgia at Kentucky LSU at South Carolina
12pm ESPN2: Toledo at Mississippi State Memphis at Florida State
12pm FS1: Air Force at Baylor
12pm BTN: Arkansas State at Michigan
12pm BTN: Troy at Iowa
12pm ESPNU: Arizona State at Texas State App State at East Carolina
12pm SECN: New Mexico at Auburn
12pm ACCN: Ball State at Miami (FL)
12pm CBSSN: Cincinnati at Miami (OH)
3pm CW: Memphis at Florida State UConn at Duke
3:30pm ABC: Texas A&M at Florida
3:30pm CBS: Washington State vs. Washington
3:30pm FS1: UNLV vs. Kansas
3:30pm BTN: Central Michigan at Illinois
3:30pm BTN: Prairie View A&M at Michigan State
3:30pm ACCN: Maryland at Virginia
3:30pm CBSSN: UTEP at Liberty
3:30pm Peacock: UNI at Nebraska
4pm FOX: Indiana at UCLA
4pm ESPN: Boston College at Missouri
4pm ESPN2: Oklahoma State at Tulsa
4pm ESPNU: Virginia Tech at Old Dominion
4pm SECN: UAB at Arkansas
6:30pm CW: Oregon at Oregon State
7pm FS1: Nevada at Minnesota
7pm CBSSN: BYU at Wyoming
7pm ACCN: Louisiana Tech at NC State
7:30pm ABC: Oregon at Oregon State Georgia at Kentucky
7:30pm NBC: Notre Dame at Purdue
7:30pm CBS: Colorado at Colorado State
7:30pm ESPN2: Ole Miss at Wake Forest
7:30pm BTN: Eastern Illinois at Northwestern
7:30pm ESPNU: Vanderbilt at Georgia State
7:30pm SECN: LSU at South Carolina Toledo at Mississippi State
8pm FOX: UCF at TCU
8pm ESPN: Tulane at Oklahoma
10:30pm CBSSN: NM State at Fresno State
10:30pm ACCN: San Diego State at California

CFB TV Guesses: 2024 Week 2 - Version 2

There's adjustments to Week 2, though not as many as there are to Weeks 1 & 3.

Once again, if a game isn't listed, assume its being streamed on ESPN+, MW Network, etc.

Games in italics are confirmed for time and TV. 

Friday
8pm ESPN2: BYU at SMU
10:30pm FOX: Boise State at Oregon

Saturday
12pm ABC: Arkansas at Oklahoma State
12pm FOX: Texas at Michigan
12pm ESPN: Houston at Oklahoma
12pm ESPN2: Jacksonville State at Louisville
12pm FS1: Pitt at Cincinnati
12pm BTN: Western Michigan at Ohio State
12pm BTN: South Dakota at Wisconsin
12pm ESPNU: Army at Florida Atlantic
12pm SECN: Buffalo at Missouri Tennessee Tech at Georgia
12pm ACCN: Charlotte at North Carolina
12pm CBSSN: Temple at Navy
3pm CW: Virginia at Wake Forest
3:30pm ABC: South Florida at Alabama
3:30pm CBS: Colorado at Nebraska
3:30pm NBC: Northern Illinois at Notre Dame
3:30pm FOX: Baylor at Utah
3:30pm FS1: Iowa State at Iowa
3:30pm BTN: Bowling Green at Penn State
3:30pm BTN: Duke at Northwestern
3:30pm ACC: Marshall at Virginia Tech
3:30pm CBSSN: San Jose State at Air Force
3:30pm Peacock: Kansas at Illinois
4pm ESPN2: Georgia Tech at Syracuse
4pm ESPNU: Troy at Memphis
4pm SECN: Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss
7pm ESPN: California at Auburn
7pm FS1: Akron at Rutgers
7pm BTN: Western Illinois at Indiana
7pm BTN; Rhode Island at Minnesota
7pm CBSSN: Liberty at NM State
7:30pm ABC: Tennessee vs. NC State
7:30pm NBC: Michigan State at Maryland
7:30pm ESPN2: Kansas State at Tulane
7:30pm ESPNU: UMass at Toledo
7:30pm SECN: South Carolina at Kentucky
8pm ACCN: App State at Clemson
10:30pm FOX: Utah State at USC
10:30pm ESPN: Mississippi State at Arizona State
10:30pm FS1 CW: Texas Tech at Washington State
10:30pm BTN FS1: Eastern Michigan at Washington
10:30pm CBSSN: Oregon State at San Diego State

CFB TV Guesses: 2024 Week 1 - Version 2

Consider this a "mulligan" for the guesses I did back in March for Weeks 0 & 1.  I'm not going to make any Week 0 adjustments but there's a handful of Week 1 adjustments.

Once again, if a game isn't listed, assume its being streamed on ESPN+, MW Network, etc.

Games in italics are confirmed for time and TV. 

Thursday (Guess updates in bold red and strikethough)
7pm ACCN: Western Carolina at NC State
7:30pm ESPNU: UAPB at Arkansas
8pm SECN: Old Dominion at South Carolina Murray State at Missouri
8pm FS1: North Carolina at Minnesota
9:30pm ESPN: New Mexico at Arizona North Dakota State at Colorado

Friday (No major changes from original guesses)
6pm CBSSN: Lehigh at Army West Point
7pm ESPN: Temple at Oklahoma
7pm ACCN: Elon at Duke
7:30pm BTN: Florida Atlantic at Michigan State
8pm FS1: Western Michigan at Wisconsin
9pm 10:30pm ESPN: TCU at Stanford

Saturday (Guess updates in bold red and strikethough)
12pm ABC: Colorado State at Texas
12pm FOX: Fresno State at Michigan
12pm ESPN: Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt
12pm FS1: UNLV at Houston
12pm BTN: FIU at Indiana
12pm BTN: Howard at Rutgers
12pm ESPNU: James Madison at Charlotte
12pm SECN: Southern Miss at Kentucky
12pm ACCN: Kent State at Pitt
12pm Peacock: UConn at Maryland
3pm CW: Idaho State at Oregon State
3:30pm ABC: Clemson vs. Georgia
3:30pm FOX: Penn State at West Virginia
3:30pm CBS: Akron at Ohio State
3:30pm ESPN: Temple at Oklahoma WKU at Alabama
3:30pm FS1: Idaho at Oregon
3:30pm BTN: Miami (OH) at Northwestern
3:30pm BTN: Indiana State at Purdue
3:30pm CBSSN: Bucknell at Navy
3:30pm ACCN: Georgia State at Georgia Tech
4pm SECN: Chattanooga at Tennessee
4pm ESPNU: Boise State at Georgia Southern
6:30pm CW: Ohio at Syracuse
7pm ESPN: Miami (FL) at Florida
7pm FS1: Illinois State at Iowa
7:30pm ABC: Notre Dame at Texas A&M
7:30pm NBC: UTEP at Nebraska
7:30pm SEC: WKU at Alabama Old Dominion at South Carolina
7:30pm CBSSN: Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State
7:30pm BTN: Weber State at Washington
7:30pm ESPNU: North Texas at South Alabama
8pm ACCN: Houston Christian at SMU
10pm CW: Portland State at Washington State
10:30pm ESPN: New Mexico at Arizona
10:30pm FS1: Wyoming at Arizona State
11pm CBSSN: UCLA at Hawai'i

Sunday
7:30pm ABC: LSU vs. USC

Monday
8pm ESPN: Boston College at Florida State