Sunday, October 31, 2010

Week Eleven 12 Day Guesses and Week Ten 6 Day Updates

Kickoff times for the remaining 11/6 games

Virginia at Duke 12pm ESPN3.com
NC State at Clemson 12pm ACC Network
Maryland at Miami (FL)
12pm ESPNU
North Carolina at Florida St. 3:30pm ABC
Iowa at Indiana 12pm Big Ten Network
Illinois at Michigan
12pm ESPN
Minnesota at Michigan St. 12pm Big Ten Network
Northwestern at Penn St.
3:30pm ABC/ESPN2
Wisconsin at Purdue
12pm Big Ten Network
Washington at Oregon 3:30pm ABC
Arizona at Stanford 8pm ABC

Pretty straightforward on this week's picks. Had to put Kansas at Nebraska on PPV, more for the ineptness of the Jayhawks when comparing to the other games available this week. Tough to keep Baylor off TV after they've beaten Texas and that's where they won out. Suppose that Kansas St. at Missouri could be where Kansas-Nebraska would switch out.

ACC was tough and I figured that Wake Forest at NC State could be a split Raycom game with Miami at Georgia Tech. I did consider Syracuse at Rutgers for ABC, but its tough to put a game like that on at the same time as Penn St. at Ohio St.

This week is a SEC on CBS doubleheader. Also believe that this week is a split week for the SEC Network 12pm syndication.

12pm South Carolina at Florida CBS
12pm Iowa at Northwestern ESPN
12pm Indiana at Wisconsin ESPN2
12pm Syracuse at Rutgers ESPNU
12pm Michigan at Purdue Big Ten
12pm Minnesota at Illinois Big Ten
12pm Miami at Georgia Tech ACCNet split
12pm Wake Forest at NC State split
12pm Vanderbilt at Kentucky SECNet split
12pm UTEP at Arkansas SECNet split
12pm Cincinnati at West Virginia Big East
12:30pm Kansas St. at Missouri FSN
12:30pm Kansas at Nebraska FSN PPV
1pm Boston College at Duke ESPN3.com
3:30pm Georgia at Auburn CBS
3:30pm Penn St. at Ohio St. ABC/ESPN
3:30pm OK State at Texas ABC
3:30pm Virginia Tech at North Carolina ABC/ESPN
3:30pm Maryland at Virginia ESPNU
3:30pm Western Kentucky at Arkansas St. Sun Belt
3:30pm USF at Louisville ESPN3.com
4pm Washington St. at Oregon St. FSN NW (confirmed)
4pm Stanford at Arizona St. FSAZ/CSNBA
7pm Texas A&M at Baylor FSN
7pm Ole Miss at Tennessee ESPNU
7pm UL-Monroe at LSU TigerVision PPV (confirmed)
7:30pm Oregon at California Versus (confirmed)
7:30pm Clemson at Florida St. ESPN2
7:45pm Mississippi St. at Alabama ESPN
8pm Texas Tech at Oklahoma ABC
8pm USC at Arizona ABC (time confirmed)
8pm Utah St. at San Jose St. WAC Network
10:30pm Nevada at Fresno St. ESPNU

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Random thoughts about TV, conference membership

Random TV related items since we're halfway through the season.

  • With the ACC's rights switching to ESPN exclusively next year, I'll be interested to see if ESPN sublicenses any ACC games to other national entities. The press release notes that they have the ability to do so. We know that Raycom will be able to syndicate their content to both over-the-air and cable entities as part of separate packages. ESPN3 was the missing component and now that it is available in many more ACC areas, will the number of ESPN3 exclusives decrease, particularly the number of conference games that the online network picks up?
  • Conference USA still does not have their ESPN deal in place. The silence is defeaning on that front, but if there is more realignment to be done, maybe that is the holdup. Is the Fresno St./Nevada/WAC buyout discussion part of the issue? I can't see C-USA taking all their content to CBSC, unless there is a deal with a larger cable entity. I also assume that ESPN is outside of their exclusive negotiating window with C-USA, if there is one, and that others can solicit offers for the conference's rights.
  • The Sun Belt is nearly halfway through their current contract with ESPN. Unlike other conferences with ESPN, the Sun Belt went for the short term on their agreement, signing just a three year deal. Could be some great foresight by Wright Waters if they can get a better deal as other conferences around them are shifting membership.
  • I'm not sure that the Big Ten will allow night games in November. Adding lights at Michigan Stadium and bringing in Nebraska might necessitate that they play more night games in September and October. Maybe that the Big Ten Network and ABC/ESPN coexist in those slots as the nighttime slot seems to be an exclusive slot today.
  • I counted fifteen games that would air on FSN/CSN regional networks for Pac-10 teams, both conference and OOC games vs. FBS teams. That doesn't include seven more games where Pac-10 teams hosted FBS teams. They have enough content to do a Pac-10 network, especially when you look at how many Pac-10 men's basketball games end up on regionally televised. Add in Utah and Colorado, plus the compression of the schedule due to the last week of the season claiming a conference championship in football, and there should be at least 1-2 football games each week that a Pac-12 network would air. As it stands today, FSN Rocky Mountain should be thrilled to continue their relationship with Colorado moving to the Pac-12. Wonder if Utah can get one done with the RSN.
  • We got a glimpse of the willingness of the Pac-10 to become more proactive in moving games, time slots, exclusivity, etc. late last year. They've done a better job with it this year. Kudos to the presidents and Larry Scott for making those changes.
  • I don't believe the mtn. is going anywhere. Could Comcast sell of their share to someone else, maybe back to CBS College? Yep. Might be necessary if/when Comcast gets approval to purchase NBC Universal. Even with BYU and Utah leaving, there will be a net gain in homes served by the mtn. once Fresno St., Nevada and Boise St. come on board. When that happens for the first two schools is anyone's guess.
  • Speaking of the WAC, extracting the appropriate pound of flesh out of Fresno St. and Nevada is important for the remaining WAC schools. No doubt in my mind that ESPN will look to cut back on the WAC contract with the network, both in appearances for the conference and in rights fees. One rumor that was floated was that Fresno St. and Nevada would go to the MWC for all sports except football. Reason being is that the WAC would be able to maintain eight football playing members and six members in all others sports, the two minimum numbers required to maintain status as an AQ conference in football and keep the auto-bid to NCAA championships in other sports, including men's basketball. To me, that seems like a really awkward solution.
  • The WAC did solicit proposals from four schools recently (Texas St., UTSA, Seattle, Denver) in Dallas. Montana, who has been targeted, did not present anything, though that may not be correct. Taking Montana St. might be a requirement for Montana to move up to FBS. Then someone else mentioned that an existing FBS school has been talking to the WAC. No one is quite sure who that school is. My money is on North Texas, extreme dark horse would be UTEP.

What to Watch, Week Nine

Missed out on deciding whether Louisiana Tech-Boise St. was a must see game. I didn't watch it, maybe you did. As I understand it, BSU was sloppy, but they got the job done.

All times eastern

Weeknight

Florida St. at NC State is worth watching (7:30pm, ESPN). An NC State win brings the Seminoles back to the pack in the ACC Atlantic. The Pack have been at home since September 16th after losing at East Carolina by six. The 'Noles goal is to run the ball, but more importantly is to not turn the ball over as on the season they are a -4 in that department (Wolfpack: +4). The three-headed monster at RB for FSU (Chris Thompson, Jermaine Thomas, Ty Jones) will need to move the chains to keep NC State's potent offense off the field, particularly the passing game led by Russell Wilson, who should eclipse his numbers from last season, but Wilson is close to his interception total from 2009 (11 that year, nine this season).

Saturday

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. (12pm, FSN) leads off the early slate of games. Justin Blackmon, who had another standout day despite his lowest catch total in a game this season (5 for 157), was charged in Texas on Tuesday with speeding and DUI. His status for the game is unclear (details here
). His ability to play will be huge for the Cowboy offense and could signal an increased workload for Kendall Hunter and that suits the Cowboys just fine as Kansas St. is the 3rd worst rushing defense in the FBS (230 yards per game allowed).

Syracuse at Cincinnati (12pm, ESPNU) is another game to keep an eye on. Optimism is high for Orange fans (myself included) after the win at West Virginia. Every game remaining on SU's schedule is winnable and three of the remaining five games are at home. Bearcats QB Zach Collaros may miss this game due to a leg injury and Chazz Anderson, who subbed in at the end of the game vs. USF last week, may be the starter. Its a role he has filled before as he went 2-1 as the starter in 2008. The Orange ran for 183 yards utilizing both Antwon Bailey and Delone Carter, and Carter has proclaimed himself ready to play after sitting out the 2nd half of the West Virginia game with a bruised hip. Both teams can be stingy on defense, but Cincy's pass defense can be soft at times (108th in the nation) with opponents completing 68% of their pass attempts (3rd worst in the nation). Ryan Nassib might be able to improve compared to his numbers against the Mountaineers as he threw for just 63 yards and 1 TD on an anemic 5-for-15.

Another Big East game to keep an eye on at noon is Louisville at Pittsburgh (12pm, Big East/ESPN Gameplan). The Cards have been very competitive in all their games and are coming off a shutout of Connecticut, the pick of many pundits to win the Big East. Pittsburgh has shown signs of life since entering Big East play and Tino Sunseri has looked like he "gets it" with seven passing TDs against one interception in the two Big East wins. Dion Lewis also had his 1st 100 yard outing of the season against Rutgers. Pitt's run defense has been stout this year allowing just 92 yards per game but will be tested by Bilal Powell, fourth in the NCAA in rushing yards per game at 143 yards per contest.

Three big ones highlight the mid-afternoon games. Starting in Iowa City as the Spartans aim for 9-0 vs. the Hawkeyes (3:30pm, ABC/ESPN). Michigan St. was tested as many expected vs. Northwestern and were able to gut it out in the end. Iowa is coming off a one point loss to Wisconsin and that takes them out of the Big Ten race for now. Iowa has an excellent run defense and running the ball is what Michigan St. like to do, but the Spartans can put the ball in the air as needed. The key to this one may be special teams, particularly the kicking game. Iowa has only attempted five field goals all year, making four, with their longest attempt (and make) at 40 yards. Dan Conroy is 13-for-14 and coach Mark Dantonio has had confidence in Conroy from 40 yards and beyond, making all four of those kicks including a 50 yard attempt. Note that Michigan St. also hasn't attempted a 40+ yard attempt since September and that type of rust for a kicker doesn't help either.

Missouri at Nebraska is the other game to keep an eye one (3:30pm, ABC/ESPN). The Tigers surprised me, and most of the nation, with the defense they brought to Oklahoma in their win. Meanwhile, Nebraska showed off a passing game from Taylor Martinez (5 passing TDs, 312 passing yards) that no one would expect from the Huskers. Heck, Martinez had 35 passing attempts and the most attempts he had in his previous starts? 17, less than half of the number he had vs. Oklahoma St. Martinez still got his numbers on the ground (112 yards) and the Huskers won't switch to an Air Raid offense anytime soon. Blaine Gabbert got the job done vs. Oklahoma but the Blackshirts will be another test as they were able to slow down Oklahoma St.'s high powered passing attack, even though they gave up 283 yards.

East Carolina and UCF are the third game (3:30pm, Bright House/MASN/WITN), and some of you are probably asking why this game is as big as it is. As of today, both of these teams are undefeated in C-USA play (ECU 4-0, UCF 3-0) and the winner gets sole possession of 1st place in C-USA East. Both schools still have to contend with Southern Miss, who is 2-1 on the East side, so this game will give one school a leg up. ECU is the two-time defending conference champion and starting QB Dominique Davis has the pedigree of leading a team through the crucial part of the schedule, winning the final two regular season games for Boston College in 2008 to clinch the ACC Atlantic Division. He also started the ACC title game and their bowl game.

Keep an eye on the Duke-Navy game too (3:30pm, CBS College). Navy is coming off an impressive and a win here will make them bowl eligible. And because the Mids have a single bowl tie-in, they will claim their spot in the Poinsettia Bowl if victorious. CBS College will have games involving all three service academies, including one we'll touch on later.

Baylor at Texas is interesting for a few reasons (7pm, FSN). First one is that Baylor is bowl eligible and ranked. If the Bears do make it to a bowl, this will be the 1st time they will represent the Big 12 in any bowl game. Texas is a head scratcher. Lose to UCLA, play decent and lose to Oklahoma, win at #5 Nebraska in a game they played so well defensively, then lay an egg at home vs. Iowa St. And the losses, those were all in Austin. A three game losing streak in Austin. Tough to comprehend. It seems at times that if the game is put in Garrett Gilbert's hands and he has to throw the ball, it plays into the hands of the opposition. Baylor hasn't exactly stopped anyone defensively this year, they've just been able to outscore the opposition thanks to QB Robert Griffin III.

The rest of the nighttime slate is appealing too, so stock up. The Pac-10 provides Stanford at Washington (7pm, Versus) and the marquee matchup of Oregon-USC. I think that Stanford should have little trouble with the Huskies and nothing this season has made me think otherwise, but the Huskies have a chance as long as Jake Locker can get behind center. Oregon-USC strikes me as a mismatch in favor of the Ducks, heck most Oregon vs. anyone matchups will do that the rest of this year. USC is 5-2 but doesn't have the defense that the Pete Carroll-coached Trojan teams prided themselves on. USC might be able to put some points on the board, but they'll need to keep up with the Ducks.

The Big Ten gives us Michigan at Penn St. (8pm, ESPN) and we get to see Denard Robinson on the big stage again. The Alabama game showed the nation that Penn St. is retooling this year and the Nits have struggled with teams they've typically beat, like Temple and Illinois. Those teams tested PSU on the ground and that's where Michigan will focus their attack.

Last game to look in on is Utah at Air Force (8pm, CBS College). This is the 2nd game in a three team round robin that will determine who should finish out the season as the MWC and have a chance to take an at-large BCS bid, at least in the case of TCU and Utah. The Falcons were held far below their average of 300+ yards on the ground, gaining only 184 vs. TCU, and they once again showed a sieve-like defense against the rush with 377 yards allowed. Utah has tremendous balance to its offense and boasts the 3rd best scoring defense. This game begins a strong five game stretch for the Utes to finish the year: vs. TCU next week, at Notre Dame on 11/13, at 5-2 San Diego St. on 11/20, then host BYU in the final MWC game for both teams on 11/27.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Week Ten 12 Day Selection Guesses

ESPN2 has a NASCAR conflict and will not air a 12pm game, but will be the home to the reverse mirror game at 3:30pm. The Big Ten Network should have multiple games at 12pm because of the missing ESPN2 window. Iowa, Michigan and Penn St. have not yet appeared on the Big Ten Network. I think Michigan and Penn St. will be picked here. Iowa still has a game vs. Minnesota the last week of the season and that should fulfill their requirement.

The Big 12 is slated to have a sublicense window on ESPN/ESPN2 at 7pm.

Remember that the Pac-10 can be part of the ABC reverse mirror. I'm thinking it gets Oregon some more exposure, particularly in Big Ten areas.

The lack of an available Big East game means the WAC can fill the ESPNU 3:30pm slot with Hawai'i-Boise St. Louisville-Syracuse, while currently two teams w/winning records, must fill the Big East Network slot as the other Big East game is on a weeknight.

Might be a slight chance Alabama-LSU is passed up by CBS. CBS has an SEC doubleheader on 11/13 and Alabama-Mississippi St. will be under consideration. The Tide already has four appearances slated for CBS and the maximum is five appearances per team for the regular season games, though each time has a one-time six game exception. Florida's exception was used last year and it would be somewhat surprising to see CBS use their exception on Alabama right away.

12pm Iowa at Indiana ESPN
12pm North Carolina at Florida St. ESPNU
12pm Illinois at Michigan Big Ten
12pm Minnesota at Michigan St. Big Ten
12pm Northwestern at Penn St. Big Ten
12pm NC State at Clemson ACCNet
12pm Florida at Vanderbilt SECNet
12pm Louisville at Syracuse Big East (confirmed)
12:30pm Iowa St. at Nebraska FSN
12:30pm Colorado at Kansas Fox College
1pm Virginia at Duke ESPN3.com
3:30pm Alabama at LSU CBS
3:30pm Wisconsin at Purdue ABC/ESPN2
3:30pm Washington at Oregon ABC/ESPN2
3:30pm Baylor at OK State ABC
3:30pm Hawai'i at Boise St. ESPNU
3:30pm Boston College at Wake Forest ESPN3.com
7pm Oklahoma at Texas A&M ESPN
7pm Arkansas at South Carolina ESPN2
7pm UL-Lafayette at Ole Miss ESPNU
7pm Texas at Kansas St. FSN
7pm Oregon St. at UCLA Versus
8pm Missouri at Texas Tech ABC
8pm Maryland at Miami (FL) ABC
10:15pm Washington at Stanford ESPN
10:30 Arizona St. at USC (confirmed)

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Why Nebraska-Oklahoma St. isn't in Reverse Mirror

It has been asked a few times this week why the Nebraska-Oklahoma St. game on ABC at 3:30pm is not part of the "reverse mirror" window with the Wisconsin-Iowa game. ABC elected to go with the Georgia Tech-Clemson game, where neither team is ranked.

According to the Big 12, the ability to reverse mirror the conference's games is outside of the existing television contract and is a separate deal between ABC and FSN, the Big 12's cable TV partner for football. I have been told, informally, that there is a limit to the number of Big 12 games that ABC can reverse mirror in this agreement. The magic number of that limit was not revealed.

In the 1st two years of the reverse mirror, Big 12 and Pac-10 games were not involved in the process. This was largely due to FSN being the cable partner. The ACC and, periodically, the Big East were the two conferences that could be reverse mirrored because ABC/ESPN had both the over-the-air and pay-TV rights to those conferences. That ended last year for the Big 12 and this year for the Pac-10.

The conference will have seven games in the reverse mirror slot when Missouri-Nebraska airs on October 30. My guess is that ABC is close to the number of games that they are allowed to reverse mirror from the conference and they decided that this one would have to be passed by.

For those in border markets in Iowa & Nebraska, it has been mentioned to me that both games will be available via over-the-air means in a few markets. One game will air on the ABC affiliate and the other game will air on a secondary channel (ie. a digital subchannel or another station). Please consult your local listings or your ABC affiliate for details.

What to watch, Week Eight

All times Eastern

Weeknight

There isn't much here, though I think its important to peek in on UCLA-Oregon tonight (9pm, ESPN. Oregon is the top ranked offense in the country and, even more amazing, they rank 3rd in rushing and the two teams ahead of them are pure option teams (Air Force and Georgia Tech). Take a look at these guys during the middle innings of tonight's NLCS game.

Saturday

Start off Saturday with Notre Dame vs. Navy (12pm, CBS). The game is being played at Giants Stadium. Did you know that while Navy has "hosted" Notre Dame since the early days of college football, the Irish have never played in Annapolis. Even stranger is that while Navy had a long losing streak against the Irish, the last four wins that Navy has earned in the series have all been in South Bend (last ND loss in Navy's "home" game: 1960 in Philadelphia). After that nostalgia, the interesting thing to watch is if Navy struggles with the tempo that the Irish run their offense. Brian Kelly loves to keep things moving. Navy has some of the most fit players around, but their size could be an issue, particularly if they get their ground game rolling.

Michigan St. at Northwestern (12pm, ESPN) is the other prime matchup in the early afternoon and this game could have a few points scored in it. Both Kirk Cousins and Dan Persa rank in the top 10 in passing efficiency, but the key will be Michigan St.'s ground game. Michigan St. may be the most complete team in the Big Ten. Shame that its been overlooked based on Ohio St. gaudy early season ranking.

Another item to take note of is Rutgers visiting Pittsburgh (12pm, Big East Network). Its a very average game in the Big East, but it will be interesting to see how well Rutgers can keep their focus on the field after the spinal injury to DT Eric LeGrande. Conflicting reports exist as to whether LeGrande has had any movements in his lower extremites. From some reports from doctors, the 1st three days after a spinal injury are most important. Here's hoping the young man continues to make progress and one day walk again.

LSU at Auburn looks real good based on record with two undefeated teams. I don't see it that way (3:30pm, CBS). LSU has been able to get by on great defense (3rd in overall defense) and anemic offense (92nd in offense). Cam Newton could enhance his Heisman status with a win here.

Wisconsin at Iowa (3:30pm, ABC/ESPN) should be a lower scoring, defensive battle. Ricky Stanzi and Bryan Tolzien both get the job done through the air in an efficent manner, and both defenses are top shelf (Wisconsin 23rd, Iowa 13th). The key for the Badgers will be their use of John Clay and if they can control the clock.

Nebraska at Oklahoma St. (3:30pm, ABC) has an "irresistable force vs. immovable object" battle to it with Oklahoma St.'s 2nd ranked offense 9th ranked defense. The battle is even more granular when just taking into account the passing game. The Cowboys rank 3rd in passing offense where the Blackshirts are the top passing defense. The most striking stat to me is that WR Justin Blackmon for OK State averages slightly over 159 receiving yards per game. Nebraska allows 117 passing yards total per game.

North Carolina at Miami (FL) (7:30pm, ESPN) features a pair of ball hawking secondary. The problems with that are two-fold for the Hurricanes. One is that Jacory Harris is more than willing to throw INTs this year (nine), though last week was his 1st INT-free week since the opener vs. Florida A&M. The other bad thing is that UNC Tyler Yates has only thrown one pick this season and seems to have, so far, progressed in the area of reading defenses and managing the offense. UNC themselves are on a four game winning streak and their two losses were by six points each, so its safe to say that they've been able to keep their off-field problems off the gridiron.

Another game that might look better on paper is Oklahoma at Missouri (8pm, ABC) with both teams coming in undefeated. My believe though is that the Tigers have yet to have been tested defensively and that Oklahoma's extremely quick no-huddle attack could expose Mizzou's flaws, particularly with pass defense where Mizzou has been average (58th) and Oklahoma is...not (12th). Could be another big day for Landry Jones.

Last game of the day is the Air Force at TCU game (8pm, CBS College Sports). Air Force's top ranked rushing offense meets up with the 2nd best rushing defense in the Horned Frogs. The real key is Air Force's rushing defense (91st), which is a poor matchup for the Falcons as TCU ranks 10th. Ronnie Hillman for San Diego St. had two long TD runs of 65 and 44 yards (191 total on the ground) and may be a recurring problem for the Falcons. Air Force must maintain tempo or this could get out of hand.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Nationally televised college basketball for 2010-11

Besides the large ESPN Networks schedule of games that was announced last night, three other entities will each have at least 40+ college basketball games from multiple conferences to show this season.

CBS will air 43 games this season, including the tournament championships from the A-10, Big Ten, C-USA, MVC and Pac-10. CBS's coverage starts with the Kentucky at North Carolina matchup on December 4th. The bulk of the schedule involves games from the Big East and Big Ten, with a smattering of games from the ACC, Horizon, Mountain West, Pac-10 and SEC.

CBS's cable entity, CBS College Sports, will air 73 79 games this season. The network's concentration of games lies with the A-10, C-USA, the Mountain West and the Patriot League. All four of these entities will have their conference tournaments covered to varying degrees on the network. The network will also air the semifinal and final rounds of two preseason tournaments, the Cancun Challenge and the Las Vegas Classic.

FSN will air 75 games with the vast majority coming from the ACC and the Pac-10. The network will air 21 ACC games this year in its final year of sublicensing content from Raycom and most of those games will air as part of its ACC Sunday Night Hoops package. Two-thirds of the games are from the Pac-10 as it will air 2-3 games from the conference each week and will air the conference tournament, up to the championship game as that airs on CBS. FSN will also air the championship round from the Paradise Jam.