Sunday, November 22, 2009

Bowl Predictions

Since we have one full regular season week left, plus the conference championship weekend, lets make the following assumptions:
  • Cincinnati, Oregon, Texas, Georgia Tech and Florida win their respective conferences
  • Army does not make a bowl, leaving the EagleBank to use a C-USA rep
  • Notre Dame loses to Stanford, leaving them at 6-6
  • Wyoming and UConn get to 6 wins
  • Kansas loses to Missouri, is not bowl eligible
  • TCU, Oklahoma St., Alabama and Boise St. are the BCS at-large
Here's my crack at the bowl lineup

New Mexico: Wyoming vs. Nevada
St. Petersburg: UConn vs. UCF
New Orleans: East Carolina vs. Troy
Las Vegas: Utah vs. Oregon St.
Poinsettia: BYU vs. California
Hawai'i: SMU vs. Fresno St.
Little Caesar's: Michigan St. vs. Temple
Meineke: North Carolina vs. Rutgers
Emerald: Boston College vs. Stanford
Music City: Georgia vs. Florida St.
Independence: Kentucky vs. Iowa St.
EagleBank: Marshall vs. Ohio
Champs Sports: Miami (FL) vs. Northwestern
Humanitarian: Idaho vs. Bowling Green
Holiday: Missouri vs. USC
Armed Forces: Southern Miss vs. Air Force
Sun: Oklahoma vs. Arizona
Texas: Navy vs. UCLA
Insight: Texas A&M vs. Minnesota
Chick-Fil-A: Clemson vs. Auburn
Outback: Penn St. vs. Tennessee
Capital One: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Gator: Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech
Cotton: Nebraska vs. LSU
International: West Virginia vs. Northern Illinois South Carolina vs. USF
Liberty: Arkansas vs. Houston
Alamo: Texas Tech vs. Wisconsin
GMAC: Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee

Rose: Ohio St. vs. Oregon
Sugar: Alabama vs. Cincinnati
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Boise St.
Fiesta: TCU vs. Oklahoma St.
BCS: Florida vs. Texas

Why is Notre Dame, at 6-6, not in any bowl? I had the following bowls as at-large

EagleBank (one slot filled with C-USA backup)

The GMAC was a fourth, but they have an agreement with the Sun Belt to provide a team if they have one at 7-5 or better. Middle Tennessee fills that spot. Ohio at 7+ wins would then fill another slot, likely the EagleBank.

So that leaves Humanitarian or Texas. Since Texas has Navy preslotted, the Irish are not interested in a rematch and that leaves the Humanitarian vs. Idaho and the Irish simply say "no thanks".


Anonymous said...

i think iowa or penn state will be 1 of last at larges over boise

these are mine:
championship-florida vs texas
orange-georgia tech vs iowa
sugar-alabama vs cincinnati
fiesta-tcu vs oklahoma st
rose-ohio state vs oregon

Mark said...

There has never and will in all likelyhood never be two non-BCS conference teams in the BCS under the current structure. Sorry Boise State. This is a money business and with the exception of the championship game, it has nothing to do with even trying to pick the best teams available.

The last at-large bid will go to the Big Ten. The only question is if it'll be PSU or Iowa. Both travel very well so it'll be a question of who will get better tv ratings.

Do you really think the Fiesta or Orange committees will have a moment of clarity, bypass the $$$$ of Iowa or PSU, and pick Boise State?

Matt Sarzyniak said...

I understand where both of you are coming from. I think its still possible that Boise St. could make it, over Oklahoma St. instead of a 2nd Big Ten team. Boise travels well also, and they've still got that "cute" glow from the Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma. The Fiesta already knows how well Boise travels.

Unknown said...

As to the Pac-10, you have either USC or Arizona slotted too high, since each already has 3 conference losses and they still have to play each other. I think we wind up with a 4-way tie for second place in the Pac-10 with the loser of USC/Arizona falling all the way to 6th place. My best guess:

Rose/BCS automatic: Oregon 10-2, 8-1
Holiday: USC 9-3, 6-3
Sun: Cal 9-3, 6-3 (it should be Oregon State but the Beavers went to the Sun last year and in 2006)
Las Vegas: Oregon State 9-3, 6-3
Emerald: Stanford 8-4, 6-3
Poinsettia: Arizona 7-5, 5-4
Some at-large: UCLA 6-6, 3-6

Matt Sarzyniak said...

I believe the PAC-10, like many other conference, consider conference record the pecking order for bowl tie-ins and allow for some leeway if teams are within one conference win of each other. So Arizona, at 5-4 if the beat ASU and lose to USC, could jump Oregon St. and California.

To me, it made georgraphic sense for Arizona to go to the Sun instead of Cal or Stanford, also because Oregon St. has been there a few times. Either Cal or Stanford fills the Emerald in my mind and since Cal had recently been to Vegas and Oregon St. had not, I sent Oregon St. to Vegas and Cal to San Diego. Also, if I send BYU to San Diego, I create a bowl rematch between BYU and Arizona, who met in Vegas last year.

Unknown said...

Matt, I basically agree with all your points, just not your conclusion that the Sun Bowl takes 7-5 Arizona, unranked and with three losses in the final four games, over Cal, 9-3, ranked in the 20-25 area and with six wins in the last seven games. I don't think CBS would be very happy with the Sun Bowl selection committee over that choice, although I guess your Arizona-Oklahoma Sun Bowl has an intriguing Stoops coaching angle.

Arizona could take care of this by beating USC. Then I think we put Oregon and Oregon State in the Rose and Holiday Bowls and the Sun Bowl's selection of Arizona becomes justifiable.

Disclaimer: I'm a Cal alum and I want to see the Bears get the best possible bowl game.