Monday, October 19, 2015

Bowl Eligibility for 2015-16

Going to list this a little differently for 2015-16 since HTML tables don't scale well on mobile browsers.  Right now I'm listing each conference's primary bowl tie-ins and each conference, unless noted, is listed in its stated bowl selection order.  Here is the bowl schedule for 2015-16.
I'll update this each week.

As of 12/5, 77 schools are bowl eligible with six or more wins.  There will be a need for at least two 5-7 schools.

Bowls: CFP amd/or NY6 Access Bowl, Russell Athletic, Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, TaxSlayer/Music City (last four grouped together), Military, Advocare V100, Quick Lane (last three grouped together).
In: Florida St., Clemson, Pittsburgh, Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Miami (FL), Louisville, Virginia Tech
Out: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Wake Forest, Syracuse
Notes: Notre Dame, if not in a New Year's Six bowl, will appear in an ACC contracted game.  It appears that all ACC bowls will be filled and one ACC school may need to take an at-large slot.  This depends on how the NY6 bowls are set, including Notre Dame's bowl location.

Bowls: Miami Beach, Cure, Boca Raton, Hawai'i, St. Petersburg, Military, Birmingham
In: Houston, Memphis, Temple, Navy, Cincinnati, USF, Connecticut, Tulsa
Out: UCF, SMU, Tulane, East Carolina
Notes: To my knowledge, no selection order, but the Military & Birmingham games offer Power 5 opponents and could be slotted ahead of other games.  EDIT: Navy had a pre-existing agreement to play in the Military Bowl in 2015 while an independent, provided they aren't selected for a NY6 bowl.  Both the conference and bowl game have agreed to honor this commitment for 2015.  Navy will also play in the 2016 Armed Forces Bowl if eligible.  This is from the comment below from Sean O'Leary.

Houston, in all likelihood, will take the Group of Five's Access Bowl slot, which means that all American Athletic schools will fill their contracted tie-ins.  Cincinnati, per ESPN's Brett McMurphy, will play in the Hawai'i Bowl.

Big 12
Bowls: Sugar and/or CFP, Alamo, Russell Athletic, Texas, Liberty, Cactus, Heart of Dallas
In: Baylor, Oklahoma St., TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Kansas St.
Out: Kansas, Iowa St., Texas
Notes: Oklahoma appears destined for the CFP.  Due to Baylor's loss to Texas on 12/5, Oklahoma St. will play in the Sugar Bowl (again, assuming OU in the CFP) by virtue of a head to head win over TCU who they were tied with in the Big 12 standings..  It appears that the Heart of Dallas Bowl will be filled with an at-large opening.

Big Ten
Bowls: Rose and/or CFP (includes Orange partial tie-in), Citrus, Outback, Holiday, TaxSlayer/MusicCity, Pinstripe, Foster Farms, Quick Lane, Armed Forces
In: Iowa, Michigan St., Ohio St., Penn St., Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan, Indiana
Out: Purdue, Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska*, Illinois*, Minnesota
Note: Tiered selection process.  The Orange/Citrus, Outback and Holiday and one tier, the TaxSlayer/Music City, Pinstripe & Foster Farms are the next highest tier and the Quick Land & Armed Forces are at the bottom.

Depending on the winner of the Big Ten Championship game, the conference should place two schools in the NY6 bowls with the Rose being filled by either the Big Ten champion or the next available Big Ten school, which is the discretion of the Rose Bowl and does not have to be the conference championship game loser or next highest ranked school in the CFP Poll.

Nebraska, Minnesota and Illinois have indicated that they will accept bowl bids if offered.  Nebraska has the best APR of all 5-7 schools, so it appears they will be going to a bowl.  Minnesota is tied for 3rd with San Jose St. and Illinois is tied with Rice for 4th.

Bowls: New Mexico, New Orleans, Miami Beach, Bahamas, St. Petersburg, Heart of Dallas, Arizona
In: Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee
Out: Charlotte, North Texas, UTSA, FAU, FIU, UTEP, Rice, Old Dominion
Note: No stated selection order, but the winner of the conference championship game gets to pick their bowl destination.  At least two C-USA bowl games will be filled via at-large selections.  Middle Tennessee has already announced that it accepted a Bahamas Bowl invitation.  Rice is tied for fifth in APR for 5-7 schools, but they may be left out if bowls are allowed to choose between schools who are tied with the same APR.

Bowls: All ACC bowls for Notre Dame (can be ACC's opponent in Orange), Hawai'i or Las Vegas for BYU, Poinsettia for Army
In: Notre Dame, BYU
Out: Army
Notes: MAC is the backup conference for Army in the Poinsettia.  BYU has accepted an invite from the Las Vegas Bowl and will face a Pac-12 school.

Bowls: Camellia, Famous Idaho Potato, Boca Raton, GoDaddy, Bahamas, Poinsettia
In: Toledo, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Ohio, Central Michigan, Akron
Out: Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan, Massachusetts, Ball St., Kent St.
Note: No stated selection order, but the GoDaddy Bowl might have preference.  Not sure.  If you know, pass along and I'll correct it.  The MAC is the backup conference for the Poinsettia Bowl since Army will not be eligible.  Western Michigan has accepted a Bahamas Bowl invite.  One MAC school will be sent to an at-large opening.

Mountain West
Bowls: New Mexico, Las Vegas/Hawai'i, Famous Idaho Potato, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, Arizona
In: Boise St., San Diego St., Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah St., Colorado St.
Out: Wyoming, Hawai'i, Fresno St., UNLV
Note: Pretty sure Las Vegas & Poinsettia have some sort of preferential status, but Las Vegas has elected to select BYU instead of a Mountain West school, leaving the MW to place a school in the Hawai'i Bowl.  One Mountain West school will end up filling an at-large opening.  San Jose St. may fill an opening if there are four available slots.

Bowls: Rose and/or CFP, Alamo, Holiday, Foster Farms, Sun, Cactus, Las Vegas
In: Utah, Stanford, UCLA, Washington St., Oregon, USC, California, Arizona, Arizona St., Washington
Out: Oregon St., Colorado
Note: Cactus and Las Vegas may be tied at the bottom of the order.  Not sure.  Have read conflicting things about it.  The conference has a surplus of two to three bowl eligible teams depending on the NY6 bowl selections and could end up sending a school to the best available open tie-in after the Las Vegas Bowl is filled.

Bowls: Sugar and/or CFP (includes Orange partial tie-in), Citrus, Outback, Music City, TaxSlayer, Liberty, Texas, Belk (last six grouped together), Birmingham, Advocare V100
In: Alabama, Florida, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi St., Texas A&M, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn
Out: South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Kentucky
Notes: Depending on the NY6, the Advocare V100 bowl should require at an-large school and
Birmingham may as well.  Missouri, who has the same APR score as Kansas St., has removed itself from bowl consideration.

Sun Belt
Bowls: Camellia, Cure, New Orleans, GoDaddy
In: Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Arkansas St., Georgia St.
Out: New Mexico St., UL-Monroe, Troy, Texas St., Idaho, UL-Lafayette
Note: Arkansas St. will play in New Orleans, Georgia Southern will face a MAC school in the GoDaddy Bowl and Appalachian St. will face another MAC school in the Camellia Bowl.  The Cure Bowl could go at-large, but South Alabama and Georgia St. remain potentially eligible, but need to win on 12/5.  If both are eligible, the Sun Belt is the backup conference for the Arizona Bowl and could fill the opening that C-USA will not fill.


Sean OLeary said...

I believe Navy is locked into the Military Bowl:

Matt Sarzyniak said...

Thanks Sean. Will update and reference your comment.

Everett W. said...

Navy confirmed today that it will play in the Military Bowl unless it is selected to a New Year's Six bowl as the Group of Five representative.

bigddan11 said...

I could be wrong, but I don't believe Texas is technically out. They weren't discussed amongst the APR standards because they aren't currently at 5 wins. However if they defeat Baylor, they would be 5-7.

Matt Sarzyniak said...

True, Texas isn't out, but they appear to be far behind with respect to their APR score. It is 958. Search for "University of Texas at Austin".

Link to APRs from USA Today