Sunday, October 27, 2013

Revised 11/9 CFB TV Guesses

Sorry.  Had to alter for several reasons.
* I forgot to account for a NASCAR race, so there isn't a standalone ESPN or ESPN2 window at 3:30pm in addition to an ABC plus reverse mirror window.
* During the week, ESPN added an late evening ESPN2 window and moved up the kick times of both of the late evening windows to 10:15pm ET
* ESPN also changed the start times of their midday (4pm ET) and primetime ESPNU (8pm) windows
* FOX Sports 1 will only have two game windows instead of three.  Their original release had an 8pm window, but that has disappeared due to a UFC commitment.

* CBS is exclusive at both 3:30pm and 8pm, so all of ESPN's SEC commitments are in the early afternoon.
* I still see a decent chance that a six day pick is used on the SEC, either by CBS or ESPN.  LSU-Alabama seems to be a lock.
* BTN has game windows at both 12pm and 3:30pm.  With the Big Ten's stance against night games, I assumed this carried into the possibility of playing in the 4pm ESPNU slot and did not slot them there.
* Pac-12 Network schedules say their windows are at 3pm & 10:30pm ET.  I think they'll move the later one up by a half hour.
* I really tried hard to get Houston-UCF onto ABC and I couldn't find a good way to do it.  4pm ESPNU I thought was better than burying it at the same time as LSU-Alabama.
* Also tried to get the Fresno St.-Wyoming game to be slotted for a start time earlier in the day and didn't see a good way to do it without starting the game at 10am MT.  Has that been done with Mountain West teams?  Yeah.
* I'm not totally sold on Utah St.-UNLV on ESPN2.  It was the last window I filled in.
* Not sold on Notre Dame-Pitt solo at 12pm either, but I really can't picture ND on ESPNU.  At least not until ESPN goes & schedules them for the 8pm ESPNU window.
* Virginia Tech-Miami seems like the best available game for ABC at 8pm though.  Requirement for Big Ten to be full national, plus no night games in November, fouls things up to when trying to move games around.

12pm ABC: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
12pm ESPN: BYU at Wisconsin
12pm ESPN2: Missouri at Kentucky
12pm FOX Sports 1: TCU at Iowa St.
12pm ESPNEWS: Fresno St. at Wyoming
12pm ESPNU: Mississippi St. at Texas A&M
12pm BTN: Penn St. at Minnesota
12pm BTN: Illinois at Indiana
12pm SEC/FSN Regional: Arkansas at Ole Miss
12pm SEC TV: Vanderbilt at Florida
12pm American: SMU at Cincinnati
12:30pm ACC Network: NC State at Duke
3pm Pac-12: Arizona St. at Utah
3:30pm CBS: Auburn at Tennessee
3:30pm ABC with Reverse Mirror: Nebraska at Michigan
3:30pm ABC with Reverse Mirror: Kansas St. at Texas Tech
3:30pm BTN: Iowa at Purdue
3:30pm ACC RSNs: Virginia at North Carolina
4pm FOX Sports 1: Kansas at Oklahoma St.
4pm ESPNU: Houston at UCF
7pm FOX: UCLA at Arizona
7pm ESPN: Florida St. at Wake Forest
7pm ESPN2: Texas at West Virginia
8pm CBS: LSU at Alabama
8pm ABC: Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
8pm ESPNU: Syracuse at Maryland
10pm Pac-12: Colorado at Washington
10:15pm ESPN: USC at California
10:15pm ESPN2: Utah St. at UNLV

CFB TV Guesses for 11/9

Quick postscript on 10/26 re:  FOX's decision to put TCU-Texas on FOX Sports 2 & FSN - Works for me if it covers everyone.  Makes sense in this context: Texas Tech-Oklahoma was on FOX, so to keep as much of that audience as possible, go with the most carried cable channel available (FOX News).  FS1 is in less homes than either F/X or FNC, so I guess they could have stepped down to FXX to replace or do the hybrid coverage that they did.  Yes I know FS2 isn't offered everywhere in HD.  Hey, FOX Sports Ohio HD is still part time on DirecTV and the Cleveland feed (660-1) did not get Oklahoma St.-Iowa St. in HD yesterday.

On to the 11/9 picks.

* For those of you who complain to me that Saturday looks empty every week, this week you have a reason to complain.  They took every that was decent, minus LSU-Alabama, and threw it on Thursday night (Oklahoma-Baylor & Oregon-Stanford).
* For what is currently available to ABC, now that Big Ten games can't air in the evening, Virginia Tech-Miami (FL) looks like the best available game and that's with the Hokies loss.  Slight chance Notre Dame-Pitt slips in there, but Pitt managed to lose to Navy.
* We're now on standard time, so the Arizona schools now fall in line with the Mountain Time Zone.
* CBS doubleheader with a primetime game.  This means they'll select the top two SEC games this week
* FOX RSNs will have an SEC game at 12pm ET instead of the evening because of CBS's exclusive window
* FSN selected Tulsa-East Carolina with a start time of 3:45pm
* It is possible that CBS will use a six day hold on the 3:30pm window.  LSU-Alabama seems like a no-brainner.  They may desire to showcase Missouri-Kentucky or the Auburn-Tennessee game.
* Maybe, just maybe, FOX will pick a Pac-12 game to air in primetime.  They don't have much flexibility left.  And with very little flexibility left, I have a Big 12 tripleheader on FOX Sports 1.
* Pac-12 Network schedules have games at 3pm & 10:30pm ET, respectively.
* I think there's a chance, a small chance, that they could pass on doing a reverse mirror at 3:30pm ET.  Just place one game each on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2

12pm ABC: BYU at Wisconsin
12pm ESPN: Penn St. at Minnesota
12pm ESPN2: Missouri at Kentucky
12pm FOX Sports 1: TCU at Iowa St.
12pm ESPNU: Vanderbilt at Florida
12pm BTN: Illinois at Indiana
12pm SEC/FSN Regional: Mississippi St. at Texas A&M
12pm SEC TV: Arkansas at Ole Miss
12pm American: SMU at Cincinnati
12:30pm ACC Network: Syracuse at Maryland
3pm Pac-12: Arizona St. at Utah
3:30pm CBS: Auburn at Tennessee
3:30pm ABC with Reverse Mirror: Houston at UCF
3:30pm ABC with Reverse Mirror: Nebraska at Michigan
3:30pm ESPN/ESPN2: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
3:30pm ESPNU: NC State at Duke
3:30pm BTN: Iowa at Purdue
3:30pm ACC RSNs: Virginia at North Carolina
4pm FOX Sports 1: Kansas at Oklahoma St.
7pm FOX: UCLA at Arizona
7pm ESPN: Florida St. at Wake Forest
7pm ESPN2: Kansas St. at Texas Tech
7pm ESPNU: Fresno St. at Wyoming
8pm CBS: LSU at Alabama
8pm ABC: Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
8pm FOX Sports 1: Texas at West Virginia
10:30pm ESPN: Colorado at Washington
10:30pm ESPNU: Utah St. at UNLV
10:30pm Pac-12: USC at California

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Handling of the Texas Tech-Oklahoma & World Series Game 3 overlap

EDIT: If you've seen my twitter at all on 10/26, you can bypass most of this.

Looking at it from the outside, FOX hit a programmer's nightmare tonight.  A weather delay in the Texas Tech-Oklahoma game delayed kickoff by 75 minutes (start time approximately 4:45pm ET) and pushed the game to air on FOX News Channel as FOX scheduled their World Series pregame show to start promptly at 7:30pm ET.  Let's take a look at a few items

1) Did FOX leave themselves enough time between events?  I would say they left themselves with enough time between events under normal circumstances.  Most college football games are budgeted to fit in three hour & thirty minute windows with some exceptions.  FOX gave themselves four hours to play with, budgeting the last 30 minutes for a postgame show that I assume could have been cut short and run right into the World Series pregame in the event of overtime.

Weather delays happen.  In fact, one happened between these two teams in Norman on 10/22/2011, delaying kickoff for 90 minutes.  Without having any great statistics on hand, I've seen more weather delays early in the season during the late summer over all of college football.

Maybe FOX, in the interest of not having to shift a game away from their broadcast network, would consider starting the game earlier in the future.  Whether there are issues with that when it comes to syndicated football telecasts would have to be considered by the markets affected.

2) Why was FOX News Channel chosen over FOX Sports 1, FOX Sports 2 or F/X?  I don't have an answer from FOX on that.  Here's what I can see:

  • FOX Sports 1 was booked solid with college football.  Texas-TCU was just coming on the air as FOX moved the game over.  I don't think it would have been an option to move Texas-TCU around to another network.  Someone made the valid point that its better to see the end of a game than the beginning and I'm going not to argue that point.  But it coincides with the next item
  • FOX News Channel has the most subscribing homes of any FOX cable property.  As of August, the channel was in slightly more homes than F/X by roughly 30,000.  A negligible number.  But it is about 12 million more homes than FOX Sports 1.  In my opinion, moving the game to FS1 and TCU-Texas to another channel on short notice would have created even more confusion.  Better to confuse two fan bases than four I guess.  EDIT: Texas-TCU also went into a weather delay in the 2nd quarter, likely pushing the start of Cal-Washington to another network I assume. 
  • I thought F/X was a the best option, until a user over at the forums of 506Sports.com informed me that there was a Sleepy Hollow marathon today that ended at 6pm ET for the east coast feed.  F/X is timeshifted for the Mountain and Pacific time zones though and this would have occurred in the middle of the marathon (F/X was airing an X-Men movie starting at 6pm ET).  While all of the Sleepy Hollow episodes to date are available at FOX.com, my guess is that these are the first time these episodes have been repeated on television.  Just a guess, so if I'm wrong about the Sleepy Hollow episodes, forgive me as I'm not a follower of the show, but from what I'm seeing over at TVByTheNumbers.com, it sounds like it is a top 20 show in terms of ratings.  Either way, there was programming on both F/X feeds that FOX decided was not worth pre-empting for 45 minutes.
  • FOX Sports 2 isn't a viable option right now.  While it was airing the replay of a UFC event, it just isn't in enough subscribing homes, around 37 million.  Only 43% of the homes who get FOX Sports 1 also get FOX Sports 2, assuming every FS2 household gets FS1.  Carriage for the channel needs to ramp up to make it a true companion to FS1.
  • Digital subchannels of FOX affiliates weren't really an option on short notice either for a myriad of reasons.  
    • In smaller markets, the FOX affiliate might be the digital subchannel.  Conversely, another "Big Four" network affiliate could be the subchannel of the FOX affiliate.
    • I don't believe local stations are required to multicast
    • As I understand it, digital subchannels that are not "Big Four" affiliates are not required to be carried by pay TV providers.  So if they stuck the game on a -2 DT subchannel that carried MeTV or ThisTV, it isn't guaranteed to be available via pay TV providers
    • Yes, you could get out a set of rabbit ears.  I tried it for the fun of it.  Where I live is 34 miles northeast of the WJW transmitter in Parma.  I had a weak signal w/rabbit ears & UHF loop.  Per AntennaWeb.org, my best bet would have been a large, directional antenna.  Not an option on short notice.

3) Why not push the World Series to another network?  That isn't an option, apparently not even the pregame show.  Remember a few weeks ago where the Pac-12 was trying to get UCLA-Stanford out of a possible FS1 late evening on the east coast slot?  FOX had ALCS commitments that it couldn't move (at least not this year) and the World Series is a non-starter.  FOX pays good money and much of it is earmarked towards the playoff baseball it carries, which does decent ratings.  The World Series is the only portion of the playoffs that FOX's broadcast network must air in their new deal.  It is valued, much more than a single college football game.

4) I think the first notice on Twitter that I saw of the game moving to FOX News Channel was shortly after kickoff.   I didn't see anything from the FOX accounts I monitor until around 75 minutes before the cutover (6:15pm ET).  I honestly don't remember the first mention of the game moving over and whether it was mentioned during halftime.   I did find it funny that a couple FOX PR folks and talent were tweeting to turn over to FNC after the game had moved.  Might have wanted to do that before hand.  With that said, Twitter is not the "be all, end all" place for this to be announced.

5) Two nit picks

  • FOX really should have just cut over at the end of the 3rd quarter.  There was no sense starting the 4th quarter on FOX and trying to cut between Texas Tech offensive plays, especially because of their quick pace of play.  Why risk missing a play as people are changing the channel?  They had a natural break and should have used it if it was possible.  I'm also not sure how much time and communication would have been needed to cut over at the end of the quarter vs. at a specific time.
  • FOX really needs to figure out a digital strategy.  FOX Sports Go is still in the soft launch phase on Apple devices only.  The number of pay TV providers that have access to FOX Sports Go is relatively small.  If they had a decent digital strategy, maybe they have more flexibility with the World Series pregame show and the ability to move football game to FOX Sports 1 and push TCU-Texas online for a short amount of time.  Or maybe that leads to even more confusion as I noted earlier.

Monday, October 21, 2013

CFB TV Confirmations for 11/2

Schedule for Week Ten
My Guesses

Six day hold on kickoff times for Tennessee at Missouri and Auburn at Arkansas

12pm ABC/ESPN/ESPN2: Virginia Tech at Boston College
12pm ABC/ESPN/ESPN2: Wisconsin at Iowa
12pm ABC/ESPN/ESPN2: Illinois at Penn St.
12pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: Army at Air Force
12pm BTN & BTN2Go: Ohio St. at Purdue
12pm SEC TV & ESPN3: Mississippi St. at South Carolina
12:30pm ACC Network & ESPN3: North Carolina at NC State
12:30pm ACC RSNs & ESPN3: Wake Forest at Syracuse
3:30pm ABC: Michigan at Michigan St.
3:30pm ABC w/ESPN Reverse Mirror or ESPN: Clemson at Virginia
3:30pm FOX Sports 1 & FOX Sports GO: Iowa St. at Kansas St.
3:30pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: West Virginia at TCU
3:30pm BTN & BTN2Go: Minnesota at Indiana
3:30pm BTN & BTN2Go: Northwestern at Nebraska
3:30pm Pac-12 Network & Pac-12.com: Arizona at California
7pm FOX: Oklahoma St. at Texas Tech
7pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech
7:30pm FOX Sports 1 & FOX Sports GO: Colorado at UCLA
7:30pm SEC/CSS & ESPN3: Alabama St. at Kentucky
8pm ABC & WatchABC: Miami (FL) at Florida St.
9pm ESPN2 & WatchESPN: UTEP at Texas A&M
10:30pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: Nevada at Fresno St.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

CFB TV Guesses for 11/2

Schedule for Week Ten

* ABC has three telecast windows.  Noon, 3:30pm and 8pm.
* With the SEC having an unusual day, if you will, I could see a 12 day pick for their games from ESPN.  * * Florida St.'s convincing win made Miami (FL) at Florida St. to be the best available game to ABC that was eligible for a primetime slot, at least in my mind.  Oklahoma St. at Texas Tech is second of the available games to ABC for prime time, which is why is earned a national slot at 12pm.
* You could make a good case for just three games on ABC and all full national (Michigan-Michigan St., Miami-FSU & Oklahoma St.-Texas Tech).  Just place Virginia Tech-Boston College full national on ESPN.  No reverse mirror.
* Indiana at Minnesota is a homecoming game for the Gophers and must kick off at 3:30pm ET.
* Georgia vs. Florida was pre-selected before the season by CBS.  Both schools prefer that it not be a nighttime kickoff and CBS guaranteed it a 3:30pm kickoff.
* The American has only one game on 11/2 (Temple at Rutgers) and was already set to air in their syndication package
* The noon ESPNEWS slot, if you can call it that (its still feels more like a trend), has a MEAC game, so it isn't available.
* Middle Tennessee at UAB was set for a FSN telecast at 1pm ET several weeks ago.
* Kansas at Texas was set aside as a Longhorn Network/Jayhawk Network telecast.  LHN is the national provider for the game, except in select markets in Kansas and the Kansas City metro area.
* ESPN snagged two Pac-12 games for Thursday & Friday night.  Coupled with the lack of a late evening window (ie 10pm/10:30pm ET), I'm assuming they aren't taking a Pac-12 game for any of their platforms.
* Colorado at UCLA isn't a "quality" Pac-12 contest compared to others the previous few weeks, but if you are "behind" on taking Pac-12 games, can showcase a ranked (for the moment) team in UCLA to the nation, and know that ABC isn't going to show a Pac-12 game in primetime, you take it.  That's why I think FOX uses this week to burn off one Pac-12 selection to give them some flexibility with the Big 12 if they need it later.
* The Pac-12 Network advance schedule has one game at 12pm PT / 3pm ET.  California must have one of its last four games air on Pac-12 Networks.  Might as well get it out of the way now.
* Choosing Ohio St.-Purdue fulfills BTN's requirement for Ohio St. to be shown on the network twice and at least once during conference play.

12pm ABC: Oklahoma St. at Texas Tech
12pm ESPN: Wisconsin at Iowa
12pm ESPN2: Nebraska at Northwestern
12pm FOX Sports 1: Iowa St. at Kansas St.
12pm ESPNU: Illinois at Penn St.
12pm BTN: Ohio St. at Purdue
12pm SEC TV: UTEP at Texas A&M
12:30pm ACC Network: North Carolina at NC State
12:30pm ACC RSNs: Wake Forest at Syracuse
3pm Pac-12 Network: Arizona at California
3:30pm ABC with ESPN Reverse Mirror: Michigan at Michigan St.
3:30pm ABC with ESPN Reverse Mirror: Virginia Tech at Boston College
3:30pm ESPNU: Army at Air Force
3:30pm BTN: Indiana at Michigan St.
6pm ESPN2: Clemson at Virginia
7pm FOX: Colorado at UCLA
7pm ESPNU: Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech
7:30pm SEC/CSS: Mississippi St. at South Carolina
7:45pm ESPN: Tennessee at Missouri
8pm ABC: Miami (FL) at Florida St.
8pm FOX Sports 1: West Virginia at TCU
9:15pm ESPN2: Auburn at Arkansas
10:30pm ESPNU: Nevada at Fresno St.

TBA PPV/Local: Alabama St. at Kentucky

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Bowl eligibility picture for 2013-14

WashingtonI used to have this on the Bowls page of the main site, but after changing it over this summer, I got rid of it.  Here's the bowl eligibility status for 2013-14.  Will update this every week.

Note that Penn St. is ineligible due to NCAA sanctions.  UTSA is reclassifying and is only bowl eligible if they meet existing eligibility guidelines and there are not enough eligible teams to fill bowl games.  There are more than 70 eligible teams, so I believe UTSA will not be invited to a bowl.

2013-14 Bowl Game Schedule

Conference Eligible Working Towards Eligibility Not Eligible
American Cincinnati
Houston
Louisville
Rutgers
UCF

Connecticut
Memphis
SMU
Temple
USF
ACC Boston College
Clemson
Duke
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Maryland
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Virginia Tech

NC State
Virginia
Wake Forest
Big 12 Baylor
Kansas St.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas
Texas Tech

Iowa St.
Kansas
TCU
West Virginia
Big Ten Iowa
Michigan
Michigan St.
Minnesota
Nebraska
Ohio St.
Wisconsin

Illinois
Indiana
Northwestern
Penn St.
Purdue
C-USA East Carolina
FAU
Marshall
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
Rice
Tulane

FIU
Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss
Tulsa
UAB
UTEP
UTSA
Independents BYU
Navy
Notre Dame

Army
Idaho
New Mexico St.
MAC Ball St.
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Toledo

Akron
Eastern Michigan
Kent St.
Massachusetts
Miami (OH)
Western Michigan
Mountain West Boise St.
Colorado St.
Fresno St.
San Diego St.
San Jose St.
UNLV
Utah St.


Air Force
Hawai'i
Nevada
New Mexico
Wyoming
Pac-12 Arizona
Arizona St.
Oregon
Oregon St.
Stanford
USC
UCLA
Washington
Washington St.

California
Colorado
Utah
SEC Alabama
Auburn
Georgia
LSU
Mississippi St.
Missouri
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt

Arkansas
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
Sun Belt Arkansas St.
South Alabama
Texas St.
Troy
UL-Lafayette
UL-Monroe
Western Kentucky

Georgia St.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

TV Appearances and their effect on November CFB TV Selections for 2013

Several TV contracts have different appearance minimums and maximums that they must attain or adhere to.  I've listed the ones that I am aware of and how they could affect selections over the final month of the season.

American
* Per their media guide, at least 24 conference controlled games must appear on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU.  Nineteen games have been accounted for through the end of the season.
* I'm excluding the games that have appeared on ESPNEWS, unless both ESPN and the American have agreed that those can count towards the 24.  If they do, 22 games have been accounted for.
* Saturday primetime appearance has been met with the Michigan at Connecticut game.

Big 12
* Thought that a maximum of six appearances per team as part of the ABC/ESPN still exists, but I think it has been dropped.  Couldn't find it on a second reading of this press release.
* ABC/ESPN has given the conference eight "full national" exposures.  Seven on cable outlets, plus the Oklahoma-Texas full national game on ABC.  They must carry 13-15 games nationally.  Full national includes a national game on ABC or cable, or a game that is reverse mirrored on ABC and an ESPN cable network.
* Additionally, no more than 19 games can appear on ABC/ESPN platforms. They can choose up to nine more games As they have selected ten so far.
* FOX has provided the conference five broadcast games and 15 national cable games on FOX Sports 1.  There is also a broadcast window for the conference on 12/7, so its safe to say FOX will hit their minimums of six broadcast games and six national cable games.

Big Ten
* Of the maximum 41 conference controlled games on ABC/ESPN, ABC has televised 13 or 14 (depending on if you count Syracuse-Penn St.) and 13 games on ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU.
* BTN requirements are that every school must appear twice on their network with at least one appearance as part of a conference game.  Minnesota and Ohio St. must appear at least once on BTN in November to satisfy appearance requirements.

C-USA
* C-USA was to have a minimum of ten games on FOX Sports 1.  That minimum was met before the season started and they will have at least twelve games on FOX Sports 1.

Pac-12
* FOX has selected four Pac-12 games for telecast and must air another four over the next five Saturdays.  Of the four that FOX has selected, three aired in primetime on the east coast and one more of the remaining four must air in primetime.  The primetime scenario seems easy to meet.  Whether FOX hits the eight game minimum is another story, though they have pre-selected Notre Dame at Stanford to air on either FOX or FOX Sports 1.  They might need it to fulfill their obligations.
* FOX Sports 1 has selected twelve games to air through the end of the year.  At most, they can air no more than two games to fulfill their maximum obligation of fourteen Pac-12 games.
* ABC has aired three Pac-12 games nationally, one above their minimum.  They have not yet fulfilled their obligation to air a primetime game.
* ABC/ESPN has selected 17 of their 22 Pac-12 games through the end of the year.  It is feasible they will skip a Saturday.  Maybe November 2nd as they have a Thursday night game on 10/31 and there are only two Pac-12 games available on Saturday.
* As a side note, FOX and ABC must stay out of each other's way, in a reasonable manner in the primetime window.  The remainder of FOX's windows in November are at 7pm ET, so there should be some east coast prime time Pac-12 games to finish out the year.
* Cal is the only school in danger of passing the maximum of nine conference-controlled appearances in the ABC and FOX packages.  They have had six games selected as part those two packages with four games not yet selected for telecast, so at least one game must air on Pac-12 Networks in November.  Stanford, Washington, Washington St. & Oregon have each appeared in those two packages a combined total of seven times each and have two games remaining to be selected by any network.  USC has appeared in the two packages five times and have four games left for TV to select.

* CBS retained an appearance maximum I believe where they can select a team no more than six times, excluding the SEC title game.  LSU and Georgia are each scheduled to appear on CBS four times through the end of the year.  Florida, Alabama and Tennessee have appeared three times each.  I believe a wildcard exists though that a team could appear a seventh time during the regular season at least once.