Sunday, March 16, 2014

My NCAA Tournament Seed Projection

I am not putting specific teams against each other on seed lines, except for the First Four games.  Have the final four at-large teams on the 12 seed line.

I am sure I probably have a team or two overseed or underseeded.  I tried to incorporate as many data points as possible along with some manual intervention

Teams in bold have earned autobids as of the end of the 1pm ET tip-offs today.  With this projection, I am assuming wins for Michigan and Florida in their title games.

1 - Arizona, Florida, Wichita St., Michigan
2 - Virginia, Villanova, Wisconsin, Kansas
3 - Iowa St., Creighton, Louisville, Duke
4 - Syracuse, Kentucky, Michigan St., UCLA
5 - San Diego St., Ohio St., Cincinnati, New Mexico,
6 - VCU, Gonzaga, Connecticut, Pittsburgh
7 - Oregon, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Saint Louis
8 - Baylor, Massachusetts, Oklahoma St., Tennessee
9 - George Washington, Texas, Harvard, Stanford
10 - BYU, Iowa, Memphis, Arizona St.
11 - St. Joseph's, SMU, Dayton, Providence
12 - North Dakota St., Colorado/Louisiana Tech, Kansas St./Xavier, Stephen F. Austin
13 - Manhattan, Tulsa, New Mexico St., Delaware
14 - Mercer, Western Michigan, NC Central, UL-Lafayette
15 - Eastern Kentucky, American, Milwaukee, Weber St.
16 - Wofford, Albany, Coastal Carolina/Cal Poly, Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern

Big 12 - 7
Atlantic 10 & Pac-12 - 6
ACC, American & Big Ten- 5
Big East - 4
SEC - 3
C-USA, MWC and WCC - 2

The last four teams I considered were Florida St., Southern Miss, Nebraska and St. John's

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