2016 Week 3 CFB TV Guesses

Any game not listed is on ESPN3 or a conference's digital network.  I'm also not listing games that already have a time set for them in this post.

Friday
I am assuming that ESPN will look to get access to the Boise St. at Air Force game, which is waiting for a date as the Mountain West schedule has not yet been release.  ESPN can trade one Boise St. home game to CBS Sports Network in exchange for one of BSU's Mountain West road games.

Miami (FL) at Appalachian St., 7:30pm ESPNU
Boise St. at Air Force, 8pm ESPN

NOTE: MW schedule released.  BSU at AFA is not on this date.  Could be another game moving or Miami at Appalachian St. on ESPN.

Saturday

• NBC has a NASCAR race at 3:30pm ET.  Either the Michigan St. game airs on NBCSN or is shown at night on NBC.  NBC can show three games from South Bend at night over a rolling two year period.  Last year, NBC aired the games vs. Texas and USC at night.
• FS1 should have one MLB game (assuming 7pm ET) and FOX will have a 1pm MLB telecast window.
• If ASN remains a C-USA rightsholder, they could take a couple games from the conference.  These predictions were made using the assumption that the report of C-USA remaining with FOX Sports and CBS Sports Network is accurate.

Colorado at Michigan, 12pm ABC
Florida St. at Louisville, 12pm ESPN
Duke at Northwestern, 12pm ESPN2
Baylor at Rice, 12pm FS1
East Carolina at South Carolina, 12pm ESPNU
Virginia at Connecticut, 12pm ESPNEWS
Louisiana Tech at Texas Tech, 12pm FSN
New Mexico St. at Kentucky, 12pm SEC Network
Arizona St. at UTSA, 12pm CBSSN

Temple at Penn St., 12pm BTN
Boston College at Virginia Tech, 12:30pm ACC Network
USF at Syracuse, 12:30pm ACC RSNs
Idaho St. at Oregon St., 2pm Pac-12 Nat'l/Oregon
Fresno St. at Toledo, 3pm ASN
Alabama at Ole Miss, 3:30pm CBS
Oregon at Nebraska, 3:30pm ABC
Pittsburgh at Oklahoma St., 3:30pm ESPN
Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech, 3:30pm ESPN2
North Dakota St. at Iowa, 3:30pm ESPNU
FAU at Kansas St., 3:30pm FSN
Navy at Tulane, 3:30pm CBSSN

Georgia St. at Wisconsin, 3:30pm BTN

Iowa St. at TCU, 4pm FS1

Western Michigan at Illinois, 4pm ESPNEWS
North Texas at Florida, 4pm SEC Network
Texas St. at Arkansas, 4pm SEC Network
Portland St. at Washington, 6pm Pac-12 Nat'l/Washington

Mississippi St. at LSU, 7pm ESPN
Texas A&M at Auburn, 7pm ESPN2
Ohio at Tennessee, 7pm ESPNU

San Diego St. at Northern Illinois, 7pm CBSSN

Michigan St. at Notre Dame, 7:30pm NBC

Ohio St. at Oklahoma, 7:30pm FOX

Georgia at Missouri, 7:30pm SEC Network

USC at Stanford, 8pm ABC

Kansas at Memphis, 8pm ESPNEWS
New Mexico at Rutgers. 8pm BTN

Idaho at Washington St., 10pm Pac-12 Nat'l/Washington

UCLA at BYU, 10:15pm ESPN2

Hawai'i at Arizona, 10:30pm ESPN

Texas at California, 10:30pm FS1

Utah at San Jose St., 10:30pm CBSSN

2016 First 3 Weeks CFB TV Guesses

Some of you like to read these, so I wrote them up again.  Neutral site games are usually a headscratcher for me when it comes to TV rights.

Week 1
Week 2
Week 3

Feel free to comment either in the individual week or this table-of-contents post.  Let me know if I missed a game too & I'll try to adjust these.

2016 Week 2 CFB TV Guesses

Any game not listed is on ESPN3 or a conference's digital network.  I'm also not listing games that already have a time set for them in this post.

Thursday
Assumptions made:

• ESPN should have the women's semifinals of the US Open this evening.
• NFL Opening Night, which usually leads to a lower viewing audience

Maryland at FIU, 7pm FS1

Friday
ESPN should have the men's semifinals of the US Open this evening.

Louisville at Syracuse, 7pm ESPN2
Washington St. at Boise St., 10:15pm ESPN2

Saturday
Assumptions made:

• ESPN should have the US Open women's final in the middle of the afternoon.
• This should lead to CBS sublicensing a SEC game.
• FS1 should have one MLB game (assuming 7pm ET) and FOX will have a 1pm MLB telecast window
• If ASN remains a C-USA rightsholder, they could take a couple games from the conference.  These predictions were made using the assumption that the report of C-USA remaining with FOX Sports and CBS Sports Network is accurate.

Tulsa at Ohio St., 11:30am ESPN
UCF at Michigan, 12pm ABC
Iowa St. at Iowa, 12pm ESPN2
SMU at Baylor, 12pm FS1
Cincinnati at Purdue, 12pm ESPNU
Ball St. at Indiana, 12pm ESPNEWS
Ohio at Kansas, 12pm FSN
Youngstown St. at West Virginia, 12pm ROOT Pittsburgh (Big 12 Member Retained)
Rice at Army, 12pm CBSSN
Nicholls at Georgia, 12pm SEC Network
Prairie View A&M at Texas A&M, 12pm SEC Network
Howard at Rutgers, 12pm BTN
Akron at Wisconsin, 12pm BTN
Troy at Clemson, 12:30pm ACC Network
Idaho St. at Colorado, 2pm Pac-12 Nat'l/Mountain
Wake Forest at Duke, 3pm ACC RSNs
South Carolina at Mississippi St., 3:30pm CBS
Nevada at Notre Dame, 3:30pm NBC
Penn St. at Pittsburgh, 3:30pm ABC
North Carolina at Illinois, 3:30pm ESPN2
Central Michigan at Oklahoma St., 3:30pm FS1
Eastern Michigan at Missouri, 3:30pm ESPNU
Connecticut at Navy, 3:30pm CBSSN
Indiana St. at Minnesota, 3:30pm BTN
Illinois St. at Northwestern, 4pm ESPNEWS
Middle Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 4pm SEC Network
Wofford at Ole Miss, 4pm SEC Network
Utah St. at USC, 5pm Pac-12 Nat'l/Los Angeles
Idaho at Washington, 5pm Pac-12 Washington
Kentucky at Florida, 6pm ESPN
Arkansas at TCU, 7pm ESPN2
NC State at East Carolina, 7pm ESPNU
Northern Illinois at USF, 7pm CBSSN
UL-Monroe at Oklahoma, 7pm PPV (Big 12 Member Retained)
Virginia at Oregon, 7:30pm FOX
Arkansas St. at Auburn, 7:30pm SEC Network
Jacksonville St. at LSU, 7:30pm SEC Network
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee, 8pm ABC
FAU at Miami (FL), 8pm ESPNEWS
Wyoming at Nebraska, 8pm BTN
UTEP at Texas, 8pm Longhorn Network (Big 12 Member Retained)
BYU at Utah, 8pm Pac-12 Nat'l/Mountain
Western Kentucky at Alabama, 9:15pm ESPN
UNLV at UCLA, 10pm FS1
Texas Tech at Arizona St., 10:30pm ESPN2
California at San Diego St., 10:30pm CBSSN
Grambling at Arizona, 11pm Pac-12 Nat'l/Arizona

2016 Week 1 CFB TV Guesses

Any game not listed is on ESPN3 or a conference's digital network.  I'm also not listing games that already have a time set for them in this post.

Saturday 8/27
This one depends on if FS1 has an afternoon-evening (eastern time) MLB doubleheader.  They have a NASCAR trucks series race at 1pm ET and a MLB game at 4pm.  They could end up doing it later, like at 10pm ET, to account for a 2nd MLB game.  10pm ET on 8/27 is 1pm on 8/28 in Sydney.  My assumption has been that the date of the game is based on the US, not Australia.

Hawai'i vs. California - FS1, 10pm ET

Thursday 9/1
One assumption was made: ESPN2 should have US Open coverage.

Indiana at FIU, 7:30pm FS1
Charlotte at Louisville, 7:30pm ESPNU
Tulane at Wake Forest, 7:30pm ACC RSNs
Maine at Connecticut, 7:30pm SNY
Oregon St. at Minnesota, 8pm ESPN
South Carolina at Vanderbilt, 8:30pm SEC Network
Southern Utah at Utah, 9pm Pac-12 Rocky Mountain

Friday 9/2
I moved over the Rice at Western Kentucky game from Saturday to Friday.  That might not need to happen though as CBSSN's choices on Saturday are a bit limited.

Furman at Michigan St., 7:30pm BTN
Rice at Western Kentucky, 8pm CBSSN
Kansas St. at Stanford, 9pm ESPN
Colorado St. vs. Colorado, 9pm Pac-12 Rocky Mountain

Saturday 9/3
Assumptions made:

• US Open coverage on ESPN2 all day after Georgia Tech-Boston College from Dublin.  ESPN2 carried coverage from the event last year all day on the Saturday of Labor Day weekend.
• I believe CBS will again sublicense a SEC controlled game from ESPN.
• Based on the games CBS showed last year, they'll get the 2nd or 3rd best available game from ESPN and ESPN will be allowed to show SEC games on ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU during CBS's telecast.
• FS1 will have at least an MLB window at 4pm ET.  Additionally, they may have a UFC event or a second MLB game.  For this set of guesses, I'll assume FS1 will have a MLB game at 1pm ET.
• The Big 12 is considering a request to move a game to Sunday.  Notre Dame at Texas is not likely to move.  I'm thinking it is the Missouri at West Virginia game.  I suppose its possible that FOX would ask a school where FSN would end up with showing a member retained game to move to Sunday to alleviate a logjam with other MLB games on Saturday night or avoid a Saturday afternoon game.
• If ASN remains a C-USA rightsholder, they could take a couple games from the conference.  These predictions were made using the assumption that the report of C-USA remaining with FOX Sports and CBS Sports Network is accurate.

Hawai'i at Michigan, 12pm ABC
Clemson at Auburn, 12pm ESPN
Bowling Green at Ohio St., 12pm ESPNU
Howard at Maryland, 12pm ESPNEWS
Northwestern St. at Baylor, 12pm FSN (Big 12 Member Retained)
Massachusetts at Florida, 12pm SEC Network
Army at Temple, 12pm CBSSN
Kent St. at Penn St., 12pm BTN
Eastern Kentucky at Purdue, 12pm BTN
Liberty at Virginia Tech, 12:30pm ACC Network
UC Davis at Oregon, 2pm Pac-12 Nat'l(?)/Oregon
Eastern Washington at Washington St., 2pm Pac-12 Nat'l(?)/Washington
UCLA at Texas A&M, 3:30pm CBS
Oklahoma vs. Houston, 3:30pm ABC
North Carolina vs. Georgia, 3:30pm ESPN
Southern Miss at Kentucky, 3:30pm ESPNU
Fordham at Navy, 3:30pm CBSSN
Southeastern Louisiana at Oklahoma St., 3:30pm FSN (Big 12 Member Retained)
Miami (OH) at Iowa, 3:30pm BTN
Western Michigan at Northwestern, 4pm ESPNEWS
Appalachian St. at Tennessee, 4pm SEC Network
Northern Illinois at Wyoming, 4pm ROOT Sports RM/NW
BYU vs. Arizona, 6pm Pac-12 Nat'l/Arizona
LSU vs. Wisconsin, 7pm ESPN
Louisiana Tech at Arkansas, 7pm ESPNU
South Dakota St. at TCU, 7pm FSN  (Big 12 Member Retained)
Stephen F. Austin, 7pm FSN  (Big 12 Member Retained)
Rhode Island at Kansas, 7pm Jayhawk TV (Big 12 Member Retained)
Notre Dame at Texas, 7:30pm FOX
South Alabama at Mississippi St., 7:30pm SEC Network
USC vs. Alabama, 8pm ABC
Fresno St. at Nebraska, 8pm BTN
Murray St. at Illinois, 8pm BTN
Boise St. at UL-Lafayette, 8pm ESPNEWS
New Mexico St. at UTEP, 8pm CBSSN

Northern Iowa at Iowa St., 8pm Cyclones,TV  (Big 12 Member Retained)
Rutgers at Washington, 10pm FS1
Northern Arizona at Arizona St., 10pm Pac-12 Nat'l/Arizona

Sunday
ESPN2 carried the US Open on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend last year and ESPN carried only the MEAC-SWAC Challenge Game plus MLB in the evening.  FS1 will have the NASCAR Truck Series race from Mosport Park in Ontario, Canada and could end up showing a game after that if they want.

SEC Network might look to televise a game on Sunday, maybe so ESPN doesn't have to sublicense a game to CBS, but it might not be easy to find a taker with some schools going into conference play six days later.

Missouri at West Virginia, 7pm FS1

Did the future Big Ten TV strategy get revealed?

Twitter user Matthew Herek brought this to my attention yesterday afternoon and its fascinating.  Here's the tweet:

.@mattsarz what is Jim Hackett talking about with tv contracts here? https://t.co/VsKkJm78lA

— Matthew Herek (@mherek) February 5, 2016

And here's the specific part that Matthew is referring to (my emphasis in bold):

“Starting in 2017, all the television broadcasts of a Michigan game at home or any time we play a Big Ten team are sold by the Big Ten Network. Now, the Big Ten network doesn’t televise all of them. ESPN will televise, Fox will televise, but in 2017 this contract starts to deliver our content. For example, in 2017 we play Florida in Texas at Jerry Jones Stadium down there, (and) we wouldn’t be able to see that in the future under this agreement. We could still go down there probably if we worked something out. In ’17 you could have NBC a player in both of our camps but we don’t know because the contracts aren’t settled.”

To be clear, Hackett's discussion of the Big Ten and future TV rights was part of a discussion involving getting Notre Dame back on the schedule.  But that part in bold is extremely interesting, because it sounds like a new agreement has already been crafted.  A few things run through my head:

1) Jim Hackett is conflating Big Ten, the conference, with Big Ten Network LLC, the joint partnership between FOX (51%) and the conference (49%) that runs the Big Ten Network.  This is what I would like to believe he's doing.  But that's no fun and it wouldn't allow me to write point #2.

2) The Big Ten Network, through Big Ten Network LLC, is going to either bid on or assume all TV rights going forward, then act as a re-seller to ESPN, ABC, FOX, CBS, whomever wants a game.  Its a fascinating way to go about future rights, because you're essentially auctioning off games or a weekly selection order.  Do you want Ohio St. vs. Michigan?  You'll might need to pay a little extra compared to Rutgers vs. Purdue (no offense intended towards any school).

But this isn't new.  Not by a longshot, if you remember how the ACC's men's basketball rights were administered before ESPN took over all rights to the conference.  Raycom Sports used to be the sole rightsholder for ACC basketball and would then sell games to ESPN, CBS, FOX Sports Net nationally and regionally and kept some games for themselves to syndicate to local stations.  Raycom was also the one that enforced the regional blackout of ESPN, and previously NBC, for some basketball games, including the ACC tournament.  ESPN, in return, I believe got some priority in which games they could buy (notice that neither Duke-UNC game ever ended up on FSN and that FSN couldn't brand itself as FSN for most of its time broadcasting ACC basketball, while ESPN could use its name, mic flags, etc.).

What would be a bit interesting about this is FOX has the majority ownership in the LLC, so would there be a priority towards FOX, FS1 and BTN?

Matthew brought up a second part though, and this might be why they're going this route:

@mattsarz pretend it's true for a second. I have to think it means the B1G is planning something over the top.

— Matthew Herek (@mherek) February 5, 2016

That would be a big (no pun intended) step, but again, if Hackett had diarrhea of the mouth, that would be a gamechanger because the LLC would be the distributor and middle man for all TV.  I'm not sure how copyrights would work for digital vs. TV.  I believe the conference already retains the copyright to their games, which is why you see them on BTN from multiple networks as replays, similar to the SEC retaining copyright for their games and showing replays of games from multiple networks not only on SEC Network, but CBS Sports Network, ESPNU, etc.

The NFL has went the route of retaining digital rights on mobile phones, while including digital rights on tablets and PCs with the TV networks.  Maybe this is where the Big Ten is going with a variation, by selling an over the top product with all of their games, but continuing to sell to TV networks and their associated platforms.  TV networks may not go for that though and probably would offer a diminishing rights fee, since the conference is essentially selling a competing product with the same content.  But if you're all in on the Big Ten, and can "make do" with whatever you get from the broadcast networks, this might be a worthwhile product.  On the other hand, maybe a partner like ESPN or FOX would be willing to do an over the top product provided they were brought in.  Remember that ESPN has provided over-the-top offerings in cricket and are supposed to have the ability to offer them for MLS and the NBA.

But let's see if Hackett was truly talking about the future.