Sunday, October 17, 2021

CFB TV Guesses for 2021 Week 9 (10/30/21)

Here are the games already set for television and/or webcast. Here are the known available telecast windows. 

I have done my best to list what TV windows are out there. Every listing service has a little different schedule for these networks. It is also possible that a window could be eliminated or the time of a window could shift slightly to accommodate a network's needs.

Some considerations you may want to be aware of

* All remaining SEC selections for this week belong with ESPN as CBS chose their game in advance.
* The following games were preselected but not set for a specific start time:
  • Wyoming at San Jose State (FOX Sports)
  • Florida State at Clemson (ABC, ESPN or ESPN2)
* The following games have had their start times set in advance as homecoming games
  • Indiana at Maryland (12pm)
  • Iowa at Wisconsin (12pm)
* An ACC RSN doubleheader is scheduled at 12pm & 3:30pm.
* FOX has no night game due to the World Series.
* FS1 is scheduled to carry a NASCAR Truck Series race in the early afternoon
* BTN is scheduled to carry volleyball in the primetime slot
* ACC Network does not have an early afternoon window

Some early trends to consider:

Big Ten
* Not as even of a split in terms of top choice right now:
  • ESPN Networks: 9/18, 10/16, 10/23
  • FOX Sports: 9/4, 9/11, 9/25, 10/2, 10/9
* Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State needs to appear once on BTN against another Big Ten opponent.  In the case of Minnesota, it is once more against a Big Ten school as they did not have any non-conference games on BTN.
* Counting future selections
  • ESPN Networks: 17 out of 27
    • Six in primetime (including weeknights), which is their minimum
  • FOX Sports: 19 out of a range of 24-27 selections
    • Six in primetime (including weeknights) with a maximum of nine.
Big 12
* More of an even split in terms of top Saturday choice
  • ESPN Networks: 9/11, 9/25, 10/9, 10/16
  • FOX Sports: 9/4, 9/18, 10/2, 10/23
* I'm assuming Oklahoma State at Iowa State was the top choice for 10/16 once six day holds were finalized and went to FOX.
* ESPN Networks has used 20 of their 23 selections.  I realize that this is a discussion point because the Big 12 limit is rapidly approaching and have reached out to multiple people regarding the number of selections that I'm using as a guideline.
* At least 24 games have been earmarked for ABC, FOX, ESPN or FS1 out of a minimum of 25 games.

* In terms of Saturday top choice, I think this is the following split, though the Pac-12's use of priority selections where both ESPN and FOX can choose a game in advance of the weekly draft order skews this somewhat. I did have FOX Sports with the 10/9 selection top choice and I think its safe to question whether that was correct with Stanford at Oregon on ABC, so I'm going to move 10/9 over to the ESPN side 
  • ESPN Networks:  9/25, 10/2, 10/9, 10/23
  • FOX Sports: 9/4, 9/11, 9/18, 10/16
* ESPN Networks has used 13 of their 22 selections and must air one more game on ABC that is in primetime on the east coast.
* FOX Sports has used 14 of their 22 selections.  Two more games must air on FOX and there is no restriction as to which TV window must be used.

CBS has a limit of five appearances for a SEC school (rare exceptions allow for six, but lets set that aside).  Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia have each been scheduled for CBS three times.

Now to the guesses.  All times Eastern:

12pm ABC: Michigan at Michigan State
12pm FOX: Iowa at Wisconsin
12pm ESPN: Kansas at Oklahoma State
12pm ESPN2: Indiana at Maryland
12pm ESPNU: SMU at Houston
12pm SECN: Kentucky at Mississippi State
12pm BTN: Northwestern at Minnesota
12pm ACC RSN: Boston College at Syracuse
3pm FS1: Iowa State at West Virginia
3:30pm ABC: Texas at Baylor
3:30pm FOX: Texas Tech at Oklahoma
3:30pm ESPN: Cincinnati at Tulane
3:30pm ESPN2: Purdue at Nebraska
3:30pm ESPNU: Virginia at BYU
3:30pm BTN: Rutgers at Illinois
3:30pm ACC RSN: Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
4pm SECN: Missouri at Vanderbilt
4pm ACCN: Louisville at NC State
4:30pm FS2: Wyoming at San Jose State
6pm Pac-12: Washington State at Arizona State
6:30pm FS1: TCU at Kansas State 
7pm ESPN: Florida State at Clemson
7pm ESPN2: Duke at Wake Forest
7pm ESPNU: Texas State at Louisiana
7pm Pac-12: Arizona at USC
7:30pm ABC: Penn State at Ohio State
7:30pm SECN: Ole Miss at Auburn
7:30pm ACCN: Miami (FL) at Pitt
10pm FS1: UCLA at Utah
10pm Pac-12: Oregon State at California
10:30pm ESPN: Colorado at Oregon
10:30pm ESPN2: Washington at Stanford

Streaming To Be Determined
UCF at Temple
Arkansas State at South Alabama
Georgia State at Georgia Southern
ULM at Appalachian State

Things you can, and probably should, question and quibble about
* The way I have the Big Ten set up, I have ESPN taking the top two games. Not unheard of and if you look back at how selections for 10/9 shook out, I think it's reasonable to say that FOX Sports had the top two Big Ten games that day.
* Yes, I'm really struggling with what the limit is for ESPN and the Big 12.
* I gave the top Big 12 selection to FOX Sports and the top of the Pac-12 to ESPN.  
* I think its reasonable to see a path for another Big 12 six day hold to be used.
* I had to adjust FS1's TV windows to have Utah host at 8pm local time, pushing their 7pm window up 30 minutes as well.
* Unless the SEC Network drops one of its windows for 10/30 like the ACC Network has, all of the SEC's remaining games go to SEC Network this particular week.  If they were to delete one of the SEC Network windows, I can see Ole Miss at Auburn being placed on ESPN with cascading moves at 12pm on ESPN.


JaredTheBear said...

I would put Michigan-MSU at 3:30ET. I know they don't want to compete with CBS but it seems optimal to have the B1G games back-to-back.

lindenberg44 said...

Any reasoning for why ABC would slot Michigan-MSU at noon instead of 3:30?

SL said...

Where is Nebraska at Purdue?

Matt Sarzyniak said...

I forgot Purdue at Nebraska and added it in at 3:30pm on ESPN2. To do that I made adjustments to other games.

Darrell McKown said...

I'm guessing there was some arrangement to move a few Big 12 games from FOX to ESPN in connection with the sale of the FOX RSNs and the Big 12 agreement with ESPN to air games on ESPN+.

If you go back to 2019, there were six games that aired on FSN and two on ESPN+ (excluding member-retained games). Without the RSNs to send their excess games to, perhaps FOX offloaded a few to ESPN for the Big 12 Now channel on ESPN+, rather than drop them to FS2.

Of course, that is 100% guess.

Bryan the emailer said...

I see your last comment about AU/Ole Miss. anyway you see that game moving to an 11am time slot?

Matt Sarzyniak said...

@Darrell - the two ESPN+ games in 2019 were part of the 23 selections ESPN made, which is where I'm getting a bit lost. There's a blurb on the Big 12 website re ESPN having 32 games, but the math that gets locked in my head is the existing 23 games plus the member retained games for nine of the Big 12 schools (all except Oklahoma).

I've asked around and haven't yet received a response.

@Bryan the emailer - I don't see it moving to 11am if it were to move to ESPN. I think its more likely to be in primetime and maybe they would move FSU-Clemson up to noon with more cascading changes.