Sunday, October 24, 2021

CFB TV Guesses for 2021 Week 10 (11/2/21 - 11/6/21)

Here are the games already set for television and/or webcast. Here are the known available telecast windows. 

I have done my best to list what TV windows are out there. Every listing service has a little different schedule for these networks. It is also possible that a window could be eliminated or the time of a window could shift slightly to accommodate a network's needs.

Some considerations you may want to be aware of

The following games have been reserved in advance, but not had their specific network and/or start time set:
  • San Diego State at Hawai'i (FOX, FS1 or FS2)
  • San Jose State at Nevada (FOX, FS1 or FS2)
Some early trends to consider:

Big Ten
* Top choice, at least how I'm reading them:
  • ESPN Networks: 9/18, 10/16, 10/23, 10/30
  • FOX Sports: 9/4, 9/11, 9/25, 10/2, 10/9
* Michigan and Penn State need to appear once on BTN against another Big Ten opponent.  
* Counting future selections
  • ESPN Networks: 20 out of 27
    • Seven in primetime (including weeknights), one over the minimum of six.
  • FOX Sports: 20 out of a range of 24-27 selections
    • Six in primetime (including weeknights) with a maximum of nine.
Big 12
* More of an even split in terms of top Saturday choice
  • ESPN Networks: 9/11, 9/25, 10/9, 10/16, 10/30
  • FOX Sports: 9/4, 9/18, 10/2, 10/23
* After they eclipsed 23 selections for ESPN Networks (excluding member retained games), I'm going to assume the new number of 32 selections for ESPN Networks is accurate. Using 32 as the new maximum number, ESPN has reserved 24 Big 12 games
* The minimum of at least 25 games total on ABC, FOX, ESPN or FS1 has been reached.

* In terms of Saturday top choice, I think this is the following split, though the Pac-12's use of priority selections where both ESPN and FOX can choose a game in advance of the weekly draft order skews this somewhat. 
  • ESPN Networks:  9/25, 10/2, 10/9, 10/23
  • FOX Sports: 9/4, 9/11, 9/18, 10/16, 10/30
* ESPN Networks has used 15 of their 22 selections and must air one more game on ABC that is in primetime on the east coast.
* FOX Sports has used 17 of their 22 selections.  One more game must air on FOX and there is no restriction as to which TV window must be used.

CBS has a limit of five appearances for a SEC school (rare exceptions allow for six, but lets set that aside).  Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia have each been scheduled for CBS three times.

Six day holds already used
Here's the dates where six day holds have been used for large discrepancies in start time and/or media group family.  Unless noted, most conferences can have six day holds used against them four times a season.

Typically, the network using the six day hold isn't clear until after the games being held are set for TV.

ACC: 0 
American: 0
Big 12: 2 (10/16 by ESPN, 10/23 by FOX)
Big Ten: 0
MW: 1 (10/16)
Pac-12: 1 (10/30 by FOX, 2 each are available to FOX Sports and ESPN Networks)
SEC: 2 of either 2 or 3 six day holds available (10/9 by CBS. 10/16 by ESPN)

Now to the guesses.  All times Eastern:

7pm CBSSN: Ball State at Akron
7:30pm ESPN2: Eastern Michigan at Toledo 
7:30pm ESPNU: Miami (OH) at Ohio

7pm ESPN2: Northern Illinois at Kent State
7pm ESPNU: Central Michigan at Western Michigan

12pm ABC: Michigan State at Purdue 
12pm FOX: Texas at Iowa State
12pm ESPN: Auburn at Texas A&M
12pm ESPN2: Mississippi State at Arkansas
12pm FS1: Kansas State at Kansas
12pm ESPNU: SMU at Memphis
12pm SECN: Florida at South Carolina
12pm BTN: Indiana at Michigan
12pm ACCN: Clemson at Louisville
12:30pm ACC RSN: Georgia Tech at Miami (FL)
3:30pm ABC: Ohio State at Nebraska
3:30pm CBS: Missouri at Georgia
3:30pm ESPN: Oklahoma State at West Virginia
3:30pm ESPN2: Wake Forest at North Carolina
3:30pm FS1: Wisconsin at Rutgers 
3:30pm ESPNU: Houston at USF
3:30pm BTN: Illinois at Minnesota
4pm FOX: Iowa at Northwestern
4pm SECN: Liberty at Ole Miss
4pm ACCN: Pitt at Duke
4pm Pac-12: California at Arizona
7pm ESPN: LSU at Alabama
7pm ESPN2: Tulsa at Cincinnati
7pm FS1: Baylor at TCU
7pm ESPNU: Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern
7:30pm ABC: Oregon at Washington
7:30pm SECN: Tennessee at Kentucky
7:30pm ACCN: NC State at Florida State
8pm FOX: Penn State at Maryland
9:30pm Pac-12: Oregon State at Colorado
10:30pm ESPN: USC at Arizona State
10:30pm FS1: San Diego State at Hawai'i
10:30pm FS2: San Jose State at Nevada

Temple at ECU
Tulane at UCF
Appalachian State at Arkansas State
South Alabama at Troy
ULM at Texas State

* EDIT: I straight up didn't know that UTEP is 6-1 along with UTSA being ranked and undefeated. ESPN has rights to the game and does have the option to elevate the game to linear TV from its ESPN3/ESPN+ options. Apparently, it's being considered for a time change and TV. I could see it occupying one of the ESPNU slots, maybe instead of Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern. 
* I deleted 10:30pm ESPN2 window.  Online listed indicated two Pac-12 Networks games, so I couldn't find a use for two Pac-12 games in late night.
* I gave the top Big Ten and Pac-12 games to ESPN Networks and the top Big 12 game to FOX Sports. 
* Auburn at Texas A&M might be a better choice for CBS, but at the moment my preference is to max out on Georgia, which they could do by choosing both the Missouri game followed by the Tennessee game on.  CBS *might* have another six day hold to use as its either two or three six day holds to use on the SEC.  One was used on 10/9 by CBS for their 3:30pm window (2nd choice that day before ESPN's 1st) and one was used by ESPN on 10/16 for their 3rd choice before CBS's 2nd choice.
* By choosing Missouri at Georgia, yes, I'm also passing off LSU at Alabama to ESPN, which means I'm keeping Alabama alive for two games vs. Arkansas and Auburn for CBS.  The last time ESPN aired a regular season LSU-Alabama matchup was 2006.  They also aired the BCS title game between the two after the 2011 season.
* I used the Pac-12 at night here on ABC to fulfill their required primetime game.  I know Washington is bad and that Oregon at Utah might be a better choice on 11/20, but: 
  • I don't know who has first pick and whether a priority pick was used for another game that day by either FOX or ESPN.
  • Pitt at Virginia and Iowa State at Oklahoma might be as good or better options
    • Same applies to Iowa State at Oklahoma - don't know who has what
* I do think there's a realistic chance of a six day hold being used for the Big Ten and that might affect whether Michigan or Penn State has their required BTN appearance, along with the network choices for Michigan State and Iowa.  Right now, I'm assuming Michigan will have their BTN appearance used, but do not consider this to be a guess as to the winner of Michigan State vs. Michigan.


Schmolik said...

Looks weird seeing a Big Ten night game on FOX. We haven't seen one all season.

I would think if FOX had a choice between Michigan or Penn State they would choose Michigan after Penn State's choke job (and PSU also still owes a BTN game).

Matt Sarzyniak said...

Yes, the BTN part is noted in the last portion of the notes and I assume you didn't get a chance to read.

Matt Sarzyniak said...

As for no night Big Ten games on FOX - They did have Ohio State at Minnesota but it was a Thursday night. They typically get one per season in. 2019 it was Buffalo at Penn State as an early season game. 2018 had a pair of Big Ten games on FOX at night (Akron at Nebraska was scheduled but not played, also Wisconsin at Iowa).

Darrell McKown said...

Depending on what the CUSA television contract says about start times, UTSA-UTEP could be an option for the late time slot on ESPN2. A 10:15pm kickoff is only 8:15pm local time since El Paso is in the Mountain time zone.