Guesses for 10/15 12 Day Selections

Note that ESPN is likely to choose a Big 12 game on ESPN/ESPN2 in primetime and that ABC does not have an 8pm slot due to NASCAR.


CBS

LSU at Tennessee, 3:30pm

ABC (both at 3:30pm)

Michigan at Michigan St. (RM)
Clemson at Maryland (RM)
Kansas St. at Texas Tech

ESPN

Indiana at Wisconsin, 12pm (time confirmed)
ABC Reverse Mirror, 3:30pm

Oklahoma St. at Texas, 7pm
Arizona St. at Oregon, 10:15pm

ESPN2

Louisville at Cincinnati, 12pm
Georgia Tech at Virginia, 6pm
Florida at Auburn, 9:15pm

ESPNU

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest, 12pm
Utah at Pittsburgh, 3:30pm
Alabama at Ole Miss, 7pm

FOX Sports

Oklahoma at Kansas, 12pm FSN
Florida St. at Duke, 3pm ACC RSNs
UCF at SMU, 3:30pm FSN
UTEP at Tulane, 3:30pm FOX College Sports (confirmed)
Baylor at Texas A&M, 7pm F/X
Iowa St. at Missouri, 7pm FOX College Sports
Georgia at Vanderbilt, 7pm SEC RSNs

Versus

Stanford at Washington St, 7:30pm

BTN

Purdue at Penn St., 12pm (time confirmed)
Ohio St. at Illinois, 3:30pm
Northwestern at Iowa, 7pm (confirmed)

Regional Syndication

South Carolina at Mississippi St., 12pm SEC Network
USF at Connecticut, 12pm Big East Network
Miami (FL) at North Carolina, 12:30pm ACC Network
Colorado at Washington, 3:30pm ROOT Sports RSNs
Navy at Rutgers, 3:30pm SNY/Big East Local
BYU at Oregon St., 7pm ROOT Sports RSNs

Guesses for 10/8 12 day selections

What is somewhat tricky is the Louisville-UNC game.  When the game was put together to allow Georgia to play in the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff Classic, it was to be played opening weekend and guaranteed ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 coverage.  When UNC couldn't move or get out of the James Madison game, they had to find another date, but I think the promise of ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 coverage remains.

F/X is confirmed to have a Big 12 game as both Pac-12 selections for FOX have been set for FSN.  Versus has its first Pac-12 in-season pick.


CBS
Florida at LSU, 3:30pm


ABC
Oklahoma vs. Texas, 12pm (confirmed)
Texas A&M at Texas Tech, 3:30pm (RM)
Iowa at Penn St., 3:30pm (RM)
Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech, 8pm
Ohio St. at Nebraska, 8pm

ESPN
Illinois at Indiana, 12pm
ABC Reverse Mirror, 3:30pm
Vanderbilt at Alabama, 7:45pm

ESPN2
Louisville at North Carolina, 12pm
Auburn at Arkansas, 7pm

ESPNU
Florida St. at Wake Forest, 12pm
Pittsburgh at Rutgers, 3:30pm
Georgia at Tennessee, 7pm
San Jose St. at BYU, 10:15pm

FOX Sports
Mississippi St. at UAB, 12pm FSN (confirmed)
Arizona St. at Utah, 3:30pm FSN
Boston College at Clemson, 3:30pm ACC RSNs
Iowa St. at Baylor, 7pm FSN
Missouri at Kansas St., 7pm FOX College
Kansas at Oklahoma St, 8pm F/X
Washington St. at UCLA, 10:30pm FSN

Versus
Colorado at Stanford, 7:30pm

BTN
Minnesota at Purdue, 12pm

Syndication/Regional
Connecticut at West Virginia, 12pm Big East (confirmed)
Kentucky at South Carolina, 12pm SEC
Maryland at Georgia Tech, 12:30pm ACC
Arizona at Oregon St., 7pm FSAZ/ROOT NW

ESPN3
Central Michigan at NC State, 6pm

Thoughts on the off-field crap...

I'm not thrilled with the decision for Syracuse and Pittsburgh to bolt for the ACC.  But I get it.  It's not about the cash.  The ACC will be behind the SEC, Big Ten and Pac-1? in that regard.  It's about stability in a conference when you look at the ACC increasing its exit fee to $20 million.  They made a commitment to each other, compared to the Big East's $5 million exit fee which neither school will have much trouble paying out.

It is an indictment on the leadership of John Marinatto.  I admit that I was willing to give John a chance and the move to invite TCU (which I wasn't in favor of, but accepted) and the feeling that they could do better than the ESPN offer the conference rejected in April, an offer that had a decent increase in rights fee but was dwarfed by both the Big 12's contract from FOX (who knows what is going on there) and the Pac-12's split deals with FOX and ESPN.  You had a feeling that Marinatto wasn't going to be blind to the football side of the house.  And with some of the fracturing going on, you had to wonder if the Big East could be considered in a position of strength.  They had possible flexibility with a free agent like Texas, maybe a travel buddy for TCU, allowing them to keep their Longhorn Network and be a bell cow for the football side.  Something beyond enticing the remnants of a broken conference.

Something happened.  Maybe spurning the ESPN deal neutered that flexibility, where ESPN could have said their offer no longer was in play.  Maybe Marinatto, serving 16 masters today but of different agendas athletically, was pressured to continue to push Villanova as a viable option as a football playing member.  There could have been internal conflict about who he wanted to contact about conference membership and the type of membership (full member, football only, everything but football, financial incentives, etc.) but couldn't get any consensus on what to do.  Maybe the appeal of the left behind members of the Big 12 didn't  appeal to everyone where it might have appealed to Marinatto, or vice-versa.

He didn't hitch his wagon to Texas like Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe did, and it appears that Beebe could end up managing a conference where the member with the most stature is Missouri.  Sorry Kansas, football will matter and I saw what Georgia Tech did to you guys, and Louisville might have more overall health as an athletic department than anyone who might remain from the Big 12.  The inability to build consensus and relationships between himself and among other members kept an uneasy alliance...uneasy, and now irreparably broken.

John wasn't given the power that Larry Scott was given by the Pac-10 presidents, to go out and do things for the conference, within committed parameters of revenue sharing.  He could wine and dine Texas & Oklahoma, and while it sounded like he only hit a double with the additions of Colorado & Utah, he used his media connections and savvy to get a massive television rights contract for his members and a very out-of-the-box approach to a conference network.  His lessons learned appears that it will allow him to make another run at Texas & Oklahoma and friends, with parameters that appear to be the consensus of the school presidents.

We know how powerful Jim Delany is and how committed the Big Ten members are to each other, a common agenda in education and athletics.  And we now see that John Swofford was able to maintain a united front in the ACC, one that appealed to two Big East schools and possibly two more in the near future.

Fact is, the appointed leader is only as good as the backing of his constituents, managing those egos and expectations.  In the cases of John Marinatto and Dan Beebe, that backing was missing, their faith was misplaced, vision was shortsighted.  But those same school presidents need to look at what they could have done.  The Big East, as Rick Pitino once said, was a corporation and not a conference.  A governing body not unlike the old ECAC, where many of those founding Big East members came from.  The Big 12 was an uneasy partnership from day one, forged in the purpose of making money from television rights.  Kevin Weiberg knew he couldn't build that consensus while leading the Big 12 and bolted for greener pastures, first at the Big Ten Network and now in the Pac-1? office.

The school presidents' failure to get a strong leader doomed them, but these men were their spokesman, the presenter of their agendas and that speaks volumes about the backbone of many of those presidents.  And that includes Nancy Cantor and Mark Nordenberg.  Their decision to bolt makes sense, but they also need to be accountable for the failure of the Big East to move forward.

Guesses for 10/1 TV Selections

If you are new to this blog, I tend to try to guess which games networks will pick for a given weekend before they make their selections on Monday.  Not keeping score, but I do try to follow each conference's contract rules and make some educated guesses.    Feel free to comment, tell me I'm FOS, ask questions, etc.

http://www.mattsarzsports.com/2011/week5.aspx has the current confirmed games & times.  Click on the Flex Windows on the page to see the timeslots available.

These selections are for October 1st

CBS

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas, 3:30pm

Alabama at Florida, 8pm

ABC (both 3:30pm games reverse mirrored to ESPN)

Wake Forest at Boston College, 3:30pm 

Michigan St. at Ohio St., 3:30pm 

Nebraska at Wisconsin, 8pm 

ESPN

Minnesota at Michigan, 12pm

Notre Dame at Purdue, 8pm

ESPN2

Auburn at South Carolina, 12pm

Clemson at Virginia Tech, 6pm

ESPNU

Northwestern at Illinois, 12pm

Idaho at Virginia, 3:30pm

Georgia Tech at NC State, 7pm

FOX Sports

Texas Tech at Kansas, 12pm (FSN special presentation)

Kentucky at LSU, 12pm (SEC RSNs)

Washington at Utah, 3:30pm (FSN)

Bethune-Cookman at Miami (FL), 3:30pm (ACC RSNs)

Iowa St. at Texas, 4pm (F/X)

Baylor at Kansas St., 7pm (FSN)

Arizona at USC, 8pm (F/X)

UCLA at Stanford, 10:30pm (FSN)

BTN

Penn St. at Indiana, 12pm

ACC Network

Towson at Maryland, 12:30pm

SEC Network

Mississippi St. at Georgia, 12pm

Others

Buffalo at Tennessee, 12pm (CSS)
Washington St. at Colorado, 7pm (Root Sports NW/Fox College Sports)
Oregon St. at Arizona St., 7pm (Root Sports NW/Fox Sports Arizona)

My View on Realignment

I've tried to stay out of the realignment feeding frenzy.  It isn't my cup of tea.   It hurts my head to try to discuss or think about.  But I do think that some important points need to be brought up.  Some of this might sound reactionary/impulsive based on my team's alliance (Syracuse -> Big East) and I'm not going to apologize for that.  I will incorporate some TV aspects into this

• The MAC has been running on 13 teams for quite a while and holding a championship game.  No the math does not work out for 13 teams and eight conference games per team, but somehow they've been doing it for a while.  The SEC doesn't have to get to an even number immediately.
• College presidents run the show and they have great academic credentials.  They need to be mindful of their boosters but also take the big picture into account.  Texas Tech moving to a Pac-16 in theory means they'll get to play USC, but they might only play them once or twice a decade.  No different than negotiating a non-conference series.
• I wrote this piece on the possibility of a Pac-16 and how it could become unwieldy to negotiate for any TV network.  My position hasn't really changed.
• As Frank The Tank (see 1st point), then Darren Rovell stated, composition of conference clauses are for the benefit of the TV network, not the conference.  The conference is not guaranteed anything when adding a new member, but the possibility exists when it loses a member that it will lose television money.  The SEC's "look-ins" aren't renegotiation points, they are evaluation points.  Are ESPN and CBS doing a good job?  Does the SEC want more afternoon games?  Can CBS have more games in primetime?  Those are the questions that get asked at a look-in.
• There are still only 24 hours in a day.   Go ahead and cannibalize the Big East's football conference.  Just be aware that the only things you gain by doing that are several Thursday-Friday night time slots.  Does your conference want to play on those dates?
• The thing that boggles my mind is that A&M doesn't appear to have made any headway regarding attempting to set up a TV network/digital platform of their own.  They have fought ESPN, and by extension Texas, regarding the Longhorn Network's programming, but outside of a brief note that the head of Fox Sports Southwest is an Aggie alum and would help set up that same platform in the SEC, they don't appear to have done anything towards their own network.  At least we know that Oklahoma and Kansas St. have HD facilities for production.  AD Bill Byrne used to talk about ticket sales being a reason for no games on PPV or Fox College Sports, but Byrne noted that they have sold out their season tickets.
• I don't pretend to know what did/didn't happen when the Big 12 and FOX negotiated their last contract, but A&M president R. Bowen Loftin was given the power by his own university's trustees to negotiate on behalf of the school.  If you don't like a deal, don't complain when you have the power to change it.

CFB: What to watch, 9/1 - 9/5

Opening week of college football is great, especially because it falls over Labor Day weekend.  Many parts of the country still have great weather, so its perfect for a barbecue or tailgate.  Unfortunately the quality of the games don't always measure up.  But there's a few out there to peek in on...

All times Eastern. 

Thursday

...but opening night is not one of those nights.  UNLV-Wisconsin (ESPN, 8pm) and Mississippi St.-Memphis (FSN, 8pm) are there for your football fix, but no one will judge you if you decide to watch MLB or preseason NFL football.

Friday

TCU at Baylor (8pm, ESPN) provides a nice start to the weekend.  Baylor made its 1st bowl game as a Big 12 member last year, when the conference name numerically matched the number of schools.  Robert Griffin III doesn't always get the publicity he deserves as a dual threat QB.  TCU lost key players like quarterback Andy Dalton and receivers James Young and Jeremy Kerley, so the offense will be learning on the fly.

Saturday

No one will be upset if you want to bypass the early afternoon games.  Sleep in, get some chores done, get some groceries, stock the fridge.  You'll thank me later.

USF at Notre Dame (3:30pm, NBC) is a great starter to the day.  Notre Dame is an improving team, but USF is too and will likely have a say in the Big East's title race.  QB BJ Daniels will begin his 3rd year as a starting QB and he needs to improve on his passing awareness, improving his completion percentage, but throwing more INTs than TDs and seeing his rushing stats decline, though Skip Holtz's offense goal was to try to limit Daniels' improvisation skills.  For the Irish, Dayne Crist was named the starter over Tommy Rees through training camp competition, though Rees finished last year 4-0.  Key stat, though somewhat irrelevant due to USF's change in coaches is that Brian Kelly went 3-0 vs. USF as head coach at Cincinnati.

Last year, I thought Houston's visit to UCLA would result in a pretty severe beating for the Bruins, but Case Keenum ended up being injured for the rest of the season and took a fair amount of steam from the rest of the Cougars rematch.  Keenum returns for the somewhat rare 6th season of eligibility in the rematch in Houston (3:30pm, FSN).

BYU replaced Boise St. in this visit to Ole Miss (4:45pm, ESPN) so that the Broncos could participate in the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff vs. Georgia, but the degree of difficulty on Ole Miss's part didn't change.  Problem for the Rebels is that their challenges have been self-inflicted with starting QB Randall Mackey suspended for a bar fight.  In BYU's case, they'll enter this season with a clear #1 QB in Jake Heaps vs. the in-season competition with Riley Nelson that hampered the Cougars early in the year.

ABC and ESPN have dueling 8pm games that are the best of the day, particularly the Oregon-LSU game from Dallas on ABC.  LSU will be down a starting QB in Jordan Jefferson, but some Tigers fans aren't exactly thrilled with his ability at times.  Still, when #3 meets #4 on a neutral field to open the year, its must see.  ESPN's contribution is Boise St.'s matchup with Georgia in "neutral" Atlanta.  Don't kid yourself, this is a Boise St. road game with the number of tickets sold to Georgia fans and proximity to campus.  But this is not the same as the Broncos' visit to Athens when they were looking for national respect and received a beating at the hands of the eventual SEC champs.  The tables have turned, the men in blue are a top five team and Georgia is the team trying to (re)gain a measure of national respect.

Sunday & Monday

On Sunday, we'll get to see how well West Virginia's personnel matches up with Dana Holgorsen's "mad scientist"-like offense (3:30pm, ESPN).  After that, SMU will visit Texas A&M (7:30pm, FSN).  Maybe we'll find out which conference the Aggies will belong to in 2012 at that point.  Same with SMU possibly...

And on Monday, find out who is left from Miami (FL) that will be able to take the field vs. Maryland (8pm, ESPN).  Nothing has been set regarding when Miami has to sit the players that the NCAA has ruled to be ineligible, if they can stagger the suspensions or if they must be taken all at once, particularly when your opener is a conference game.  I suspect that if Bethune-Cookman were the opener, everyone with a one game suspension would be sidelined, but if they can stagger them, you might see a mostly full squad suit up.

The entire schedule

What's New for college football on TV in 2011?

What's new in broadcasting:

ACC - A brand new rights agreement with ESPN should allow for more games to air on TV.  Not necessarily on ESPN or ABC though.  Raycom will manage a pair of syndication packages, one for over-the-air networks and one for regional cable networks.  Fox Sports South (including the Carolina subfeed) & Fox Sports Florida/Sun Sports will carry games from the regional cable package.  Also appears Comcast SportsNet Mid-Atlantic will have some games.  It is unknown who would be an affiliate in New England, but NESN was part of FSN's affiliate group for ACC games, so they may be in the mix again.

C-USA - Also starting a pair of new rights agreements, one with CBS Sports Network (formerly CBS College Sports) and one with Fox Sports Media Group.  C-USA will increase its national game coverage by over 60%, not to mention their right fee revenue, by moving to FSMG from ESPN.  The FSMG deal has not been without controversy, as ESPN has sued the conference, believing that C-USA did not negotiate in good faith.  Most of the FSMG games will air on FSN and the conference's championship game will air on F/X or on FOX's broadcast network.

F/X - FOX decided to take some of its inventory and place it on F/X.  Games from the Big 12, Pac-12 and C-USA will air on the network with Gus Johnson signed to the network to be the primary voice of the package of games.

Big Ten - Besides negotiating their championship game rights with FOX, the conference also was able to strike a deal with ESPN that would allow ABC telecasts to coexist with BTN games (BTW, the Big Ten Network is now officially going by the acronym of BTN).  This will lighten the load of 3-4 games in the same time slot on BTN, plus allow the Big Ten to retain its stance of no night games in November.

Pac-12 - FOX signed up the Pac-12's championship for 2011 in a one-year deal that will also provide an additional six games for FSN & F/X to air this season.  Their package of pay-TV games increased from 18 games to 24.  None of the added games are being sublicensed to Versus, who will retain their seven game package of games sublicensed from FSMG.

With the Pac-12 Network and regional nets starting up next year, Utah (KJZZ) and Colorado (rumored to be Fox College Sports) will make agreements to have their 3rd tier games aired.

BYU - Armed with their own TV deal with ESPN, plus at least one game on BYUtv, the Cougars start life as a football independent.  They'll have at least four home games on ESPN/ESPN2 (including the "neutral" site game vs. TCU in Arlington), plus possibly three games on ESPNU (San Jose St., Idaho & New Mexico St.) with the Idaho St. game on BYUtv.

WAC - The biggest casualty in realignment, the conference will see its exposure cut at least in half, while their rights fee with ESPN may have been cut even more.  Won't get any easier for the conference next year.

Versus - After the season, the network's name will change to NBC Sports Network as Comcast is now the primary stakeholder of NBC Universal.  No word as to whether there will be more college sports programming besides the package of games they have from the Ivy League, Mountain West and Pac-12.

ESPN - Per ESPN PR's Mike Humes, both halves of a Reverse Mirror game should be available in HD to all viewers.  Sadly, it appears that the Game Plan package will remain HD-less and ESPN3.com will not carry ESPNU games live, though users of the WatchESPN app & ESPN's authenticated services will be able to watch ESPNU on their PCs and mobile devices.

Longhorn Network - Saving the most controversial for last, the ESPN-owned and University of Texas-centric network struck a deal with FOX to allow for games from the ABC inventory of Big 12 games to appear on the network in 2011.  At least the opener vs. Rice will appear on the networks, plus the possibility of a conference game as long as the competing schools and the conference grant approval.  I'm not going to go into the messy situation regarding the possibility of high school games airing on the network.