11/19 12 Day Selection Guesses

Note that ESPNU will not have a mid-afternoon game as they'll be televising college basketball instead.

11/19 will be the final week of selections for the Big 12.  11/26 and 12/3 had their television selections completed before the season started.

I'm assuming that Longhorn Network games count towards the ABC selection count for the Big 12.  That's why Kansas St.-Texas ends up on F/X.

There could be some six day picks for this week too.  Possibly w/Cincy-Rutgers.


CBS
LSU at Ole Miss, 3:30pm

ABC
Nebraska at Michigan, 3:30pm (RM)
Clemson at NC State, 3:30pm
Texas Tech at Missouri, 3:30pm
California at Stanford, 3:30pm (RM)
Oklahoma at Baylor, 8pm
USC at Oregon, 8pm (confirmed)

ESPN
Penn St. at Ohio St., 12pm
ESPN Reverse Mirror, 3:30pm
Mississippi St. at Arkansas, 7pm

ESPN2
Wisconsin at Illinois, 12pm
Virginia at Florida St., 7:30pm


ESPNU
Cincinnati at Rutgers, 12pm
Miami (FL) at USF, 3:30pm
Kentucky at Georgia, 7pm

FOX Sports
Kansas St. at Texas, 12pm F/X
Kansas at Texas A&M, 12pm FSN
Maryland at Wake Forest, 3pm ACC RSNs
SMU at Houston, 3:30pm FSN
UCF at East Carolina, 7pm FSN

Versus
Washington at Oregon St., 7:30pm

BTN
Iowa at Purdue, 12pm
Indiana at Michigan St., 12pm
Minnesota at Northwestern, 3:30pm

Regional, Internet and Syndication
Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 12pm SEC Network
Louisville at Connecticut, 12pm Big East Network
The Citadel at South Carolina, 12pm Gamecocks PPV (confirmed)
Georgia Tech at Duke, 12:30pm ACC Network
Furman at Florida, 1pm Sun Sports PPV (confirmed)
Samford at Auburn, 1pm CSS PPV (confirmed)
Georgia Southern at Alabama, 2pm Crimson Tide PPV (confirmed)
Arizona at Arizona St., 7pm FSAZ
Colorado at UCLA, 7pm Prime/FCS
Utah at Washington St., 7pm ROOT NW/KJZZ
Western Kentucky at North Texas, 7:30pm Sun Belt Network

Changes in College Basketball TV for 2011-12

The season starts Monday.  Not as many changes when compared to prior years.  Here's what has changed

ACC: Everywhere - As part of the ACC's new deal with ESPN, many more ACC telecasts will appear on ESPN and the Full Court package.  ESPNU will now air Sunday night basketball games, a slot that FSN previously carried.  The regional cable package of games that aired on NESN, FOX and Comcast RSNs will continue to do so, but now air in the ESPN Full Court package as well.  Also, a large number of non-conference games will air exclusively through ESPN3.

Besides FSN (nationally), the only other place you won't see ACC games is CBS.  ESPN as the rightsholder no longer has to sublicense games and elected not to sell any to CBS.

C-USA on FSN - By leaving ESPN, C-USA earned a small increase in telecasts on FSN.  The games will typically air on Saturday afternoons as a lead in to Pac-12 games.  FOX also owns the rights to the conference championship and will continue to license it to CBS.

Pac-12 on Sundays - FSN gained 10 games for this year as part of the Pac-12 football championship game deal with FOX for 2011.  14 Pac-12 games will air on Sundays this season, a temporary replacement for the loss of the ACC package.

New deals - The MAAC, MVC, Patriot League and WCC completed new deals with their rightsholders.  The WCC will see an increase in appears on ESPN, mostly in non-conference play and a couple extra games in the conference tournament.  The MVC won't see an increase on ESPN, but the regional package that has aired on FOX Sports Midwest and CSN Chicago will reappear in the FOX College Sports suite of channels and air as part as ESPN Full Court.  The MVC final has been retained by ESPN as well, but will continue to be licensed to CBS.

The MAAC's new deal retains the existing ESPN television numbers, but the regional game of the week package that aired on MSG, including most of the conference tournament, will now air exclusively on ESPN3.  The Patriot League's deal in basketball doesn't look much different that prior years, but the championship game is now part of the deal.  It will air on CBS Sports Network and move to a Wednesday evening.

Minor changes with the Big Ten - With the addition of Nebraska, the Big Ten worked out changes to the Big Ten Network (BTN) and how it coexists with other TV partners.  In football we've seen where ABC and BTN can show games at the same time.  In football, we'll see ESPN and BTN overlap in games.  ESPNU will also carry a small number of conference games, where it previously only carried non-conference games.

Big East, Incoming Members and TV

With the Big East in flux and an upcoming football TV negotiation, let's assume they bring in all six members they intend to (Air Force, Boise St., Houston, Navy, SMU, UCF) for football.  Some of negotiating points for contracts that would start with the 2014 season are:

1) Membership size - Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia would be out, but the new configuration would be eleven members.  Not enough for a football championship game.  Someone else needs to be added to do one.  Could be BYU, Temple, Army or someone not mentioned or stay at eleven and maximize the number of weeks and games they can schedule for television.

2) Possible partners - ESPN might be more favorable to the new members.  All of these new members have had games with CBS Sports Network which has only about 60% of the draw of ESPNU, its direct competitor.  Boise St. made a name for itself on Friday nights on ESPN and ESPN2.  Pockets of UCF fans along with existing members don't seem to mind either and a 2nd AQ conference, the Pac-12, will be a regular fixture on Friday nights on ESPN/ESPN2 as their new contract starts.  Further, possible 12th football member BYU had a very public spat with Comcast over the MWC television contract and was an catalyst for their move to football independence and the WCC.  The flexibility of their ESPN deal, particularly the replay rights and BYUtv, might easily be folded into a new Big East football TV deal.

On the other hand, Army & Navy have preferences for Saturday afternoon kickoffs and joining the Big East could mean losing those television opportunities.  Comcast is the cable provider in several areas where the Big East football and all sports membership call home and may sway some members.

I wouldn't expect FOX to be anywhere near this.  Turner could be a dark horse.

3) Notre Dame - No, this isn't about whether they need to be a football member of this conference.  They don't.  They never will.  Don't even bother.

But they know NBC.  May not know everyone in place now that Comcast is running much of the ship over at NBC Sports, but they did make a deal to have their home hockey games on NBC Sports Network as they move to Hockey East. They'll likely have a football game each season on NBCSN through the end of their TV deal.  They might speak on behalf of Comcast for others who have doubts.

11/12 12 Day CFB Selection Guesses

CBS is scheduled to have two SEC games, one at 12pm and one at 3:30pm.  When CBS has a doubleheader involving a 12pm, they do not have the 1st two choices, but the 1st and the 4th choice.

ABC will also have a 12pm game.  No guarantee that it must be national.

ESPN2 has a 10:15pm window.  With Hawai'i-Nevada scheduled for ESPNU late, ESPN2 seems to be a likely landing spot for the Idaho-BYU game.

BTN will be able to fill all scheduling obligations provided the Wisconsin-Minnesota game is chosen by them.  The Badgers are the only Big Ten team to not appear on the network in a conference game.

The Washington-USC game is USC's homecoming and was guaranteed a 3:30pm ET kickoff.  If ABC passed on their game, and I expect that to be the case, the ABC window would move to 8pm ET and FOX Sports would assume the Washington-USC game.

My feeling is that the 8pm window will be the Oregon-Stanford game and will be national and ABC will use the 12pm window as a regional window.  Before the season started when ABC added this window, I thought the 12pm game could be Miami (FL)-Florida St., but with those teams falling short of expectations, they'll show other games.

Versus has a 10:30pm Pac-12 window.  I think that could change if the Arizona St.-Washington St. game is chosen.  Washington St. really dislikes late season night games because its very cold out for night games in Pullman.  With Colorado and Utah being MST teams, I don't think they'll want to start a game at 8:30pm local time either.  Oregon St.-California isn't ideal either, but its likely to be the only other choice if Versus isn't able to change their time slot.

CBS
Tennessee at Arkansas, 12pm
Auburn at Georgia, 3:30pm

ABC
Cincinnati at West Virginia, 12pm
Oklahoma St. at Texas Tech, 12pm
Wake Forest at Clemson, 3:30pm
Nebraska at Penn St., 3:30pm
Texas A&M at Kansas St., 3:30pm
Oregon at Stanford, 8pm

ESPN
Michigan at Illinois, 12pm
ABC Reverse Mirror, 3:30pm
Alabama at Mississippi St., 7:30pm


ESPN2
Michigan St. at Iowa, 12pm
Florida at South Carolina, 7pm
Idaho at BYU, 10:15pm

FOX Sports
Marshall at Tulsa, 12pm FSN
Baylor at Kansas, 12:30pm FOX College
NC State at Boston College, ACC RSNs
Washington at USC, 3:30pm F/X
Navy at SMU, 3:30pm FSN
Texas at Missouri, 7pm FSN


ESPNU
Ohio St. at Purdue, 12pm
Miami (FL) at Florida St., 3:30pm
Western Kentucky at LSU, 7pm
Hawai'i at Nevada, 10:15pm (confirmed)

Versus
Arizona St. at Washington St., 10:30pm

BTN
Rice at Northwestern, 12pm
Wisconsin at Minnesota, 3:30pm

Regional, Syndication and Web Exclusives
Kentucky at Vanderbilt, 12pm SEC Network
Pittsburgh at Louisville, 12pm Big East Network
Duke at Virginia, 12:30pm ACC Network
UL-Lafayette at Arkansas St., 1pm Sun Belt Network (confirmed)

Arizona at Colorado, 3:30pm FCS/FSAZ

Oregon St. at California, 3:30pm ROOT NW/CSNCA
UCLA at Utah, 3:30pm Prime Ticket/KJZZ
Louisiana Tech at Ole Miss, 7:30pm CSS

11/5 12 Day Selection Guesses

Obviously there is the story out there regarding moving LSU-Alabama to primetime.  That would have to be negotiated between CBS, ESPN and the SEC.  For now, I'm going to assume the timeslot for the game remains at 3:30pm ET.

Other notes:

• The Breeders Cup is on ESPN from 3:30pm to 7:15pm.  That is why ESPN cannot show a game during that time slot.
• This is also the final week that FSN will carry an SEC game regionally in 2011.   
• CSS also has two SEC selections, one at 12:30pm and again at 7:30pm.
• Advance listings at FXNetworks.com, coupled with Zap2It.com, show FX with a 4pm and 8pm window, and FSN with only 12pm and 3:30pm national games.  This differs from FOX's original release.  With that said, FOX hasn't exactly been sticking to the release.  
• Since FOX has been showing their Big 12 FX games at 12pm lately, possibly to give the ABC or ESPN games their own slot, would not surprise me to see this become a 12pm-4pm FX doubleheader
• Because of the 4pm FX game, plus because ABC currently has a 3:30pm Pac-12 window, I think the Pac-12 will have an 8pm ABC window instead.
• Versus is listed with a Pac-12 window at 10:30pm
• Having all Big East teams play each other makes a slight mess of things.  Could see a game on ABC at 3:30pm instead of a12pm ESPN/ESPN2 game, which would give the Big Ten a slot back.
• Oregon-Washington may match the two best records in the Pac-12 that day, but Oregon has four games part of the ABC/ESPN package and there's a max of six appearances in that package.  I'm assuming ABC will want both the Civil War and the Oregon-Stanford game, so F/X has one fall in its lap
• Why so many games on BTN? Ohio St., Wisconsin and Nebraska have yet to appear in a conference game on BTN.  Michigan St. has not yet either, but has a game with Indiana upcoming.  Wisconsin does as well and they could end up moving back to 12pm on ESPN/ESPN2 with a Big East game at 3:30pm on ABC instead of 12pm on ESPN2.

Would not be stunned if several time slots/games are held for six day picks.  Its a mess.


CBS
LSU at Alabama, 3:30pm

ABC
Michigan at Iowa, 3:30pm (RM)
Texas A&M at Oklahoma, 3:30pm (RM)
Stanford at Oregon St., 8pm
Kansas St. at Oklahoma St., 8pm

ESPN
Minnesota at Michigan St., 12pm
South Carolina at Arkansas, 7:45pm

ESPN2
Syracuse at Connecticut, 12pm
ABC Reverse Mirror, 3:30pm
Notre Dame at Wake Forest, 7:45pm

Versus
Arizona St. at UCLA, 10:30pm

ESPNU
Louisville at West Virginia, 12pm
USF at Rutgers, 3:30pm
Vanderbilt at Florida, 7pm
Louisiana Tech at Fresno St., 10:15pm (confirmed)

FOX Sports
Missouri at Baylor, 12pm FSN
Kansas at Iowa St., 12:30pm FOX College Sports
NC State at North Carolina, 3pm ACC RSNs
UTEP at Rice, 3:30pm FSN
Oregon at Washington, 4pm F/X
New Mexico St. at Georgia, 7pm SEC RSNs
Texas Tech at Texas, 8pm F/X

BTN
Indiana at Ohio St., 12pm
Purdue at Wisconsin, 3:30pm
Northwestern at Nebraska, 3:30pm

Regional, Web Exclusive & Syndication
Ole Miss at Kentucky, 12pm SEC Network
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 12pm Big East Network
Virginia at Maryland, 12:30pm ACC Network
Middle Tennessee at Tennessee, 12:30pm CSS
Duke at Miami (FL), 1pm ESPN3.com
Washington St. at California, 7pm ROOT NW/CSNCA
Utah at Arizona, 7pm FSAZ/KJZZ
UT-Martin at Mississippi St., 7:30pm CSS

TV implications of the new CFA (aka MWC-CUSA-Big East-WAC)

A week ago the MWC and Conference USA announced that they would be combining forces in football for a super conference of sorts.   And I tweeted the following

I had no idea John Marinatto would take it to heart.

Now the Boston Globe is reporting that a scenario being considered is that the Big East and part of the WAC could join up with the MWC/C-USA partnership to create a single conference/alliance with the Big East's automatic BCS berth.

To me, its not a far fetched idea.  Right now, the plan assumes that West Virginia would replace Missouri in the Big 12.  Of course, Louisville could be substituted in.  The plan assumes that the Big 12 would be a ten team conference.  It also appears to assume that BYU will remain an independent.

Right now, there's a mishmash of TV rights involving all of the potential parties involved.  ESPN has the WAC rights for a few more years, C-USA has deals with FOX Sports and CBS Sports Network, the MWC with CBS Sports Network and Comcast/NBC and the Big East with ESPN.

To me, it looks like a slimmed down version of the CFA, the negotiating body for several conferences' TV rights from the mid-80s through the mid-90s.  Another coincidence: Chuck Neinas, who ran the Big 8 as commissioner along with the CFA, happens to have been the point person for the C-USA/MWC merger.

Questions come up with how a merger of this size goes about divvying up their TV rights and other money:

• Single group or by division?
• How many layers/entities will be involved (network, cable, syndication, conference-run TV)?
• TV rights money: appearance based or shared equally?
• Bowl games: do they get negotiated by division or within the group as a whole, and how does that money get split?

I'm sure there are other considerations too.  What are your thoughts about this setup?  How would you set this conglomeration up?

Breakdown of ESPN Networks' MBK Coverage

With the release of ESPN Networks' men's basketball coverage for the 2011-12 season, I wanted to take a look and see what the breakdown was for all conferences that ESPN will air games for.  Networks that were part of the count were ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPN/ESPN2 flex games and ESPN3.com exclusives.  Games that are part of a conference's championship tournament are included in the count.  Rights belong to the "home" team when it comes to non-conference games in the count.

NOTE:  All games that are part of an exempt tournament/event, even if played on a team's home court, have been excluded from these counts.

Breakdown

* The Big East and ACC are the clear leaders when it comes to the bulk of college basketball that ESPN Networks carry with nearly 40% of MBK games where ESPN holds conference-level rights as part of these two conference's packages.  There's a few reasons why the number is so high.

1. ESPN took all ACC rights over from Raycom and has increased the number of ESPNU and ESPN3 exclusives, particularly for non-conference games where those games were often retained by the school and licensed to various regional networks.

2. ESPN is limited in the contracts of the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC on how many games they can take.  In the case of the Big Ten, BTN picks up the majority of the games, particularly in the non-conference portion of the schedule.  With the Big 12 and SEC, schools can create their own rights packages after a specific number of non-conference games are selected.

* The five "Power" conferences that ESPN has contracts with make up 2/3rd of all games ESPN has for conference rights.  The percentage remains consistent when removing ESPN3 games from the equation.

* Three conferences have only their conference championship on ESPN Networks and no other regular season games: Atlantic Sun, Big Sky & Southland.

* The non "Power" conference with the most games on ESPN Networks is the Metro Atlantic, but 2/3rd of those games are ESPN3.com exclusives.  The non "Power" conference with the most televised games is the WCC.  The WCC is also the non "Power" conference with the most games on ESPN & ESPN2.

* Six conferences will have at least one regular season game on ESPNU and/or ESPN3.com, but their lone ESPN/ESPN2 appearance will be the conference championship: America East, Big South, MEAC, NEC, OVC & Summit.

* Two conferences will have all their televised games on ESPNU: the Ivy League and the SWAC.  The SWAC will have their conference championship on ESPNU, the Ivies are the lone holdout when it comes to a conference championship tournament.

* An additional 143 games are part of exempt & neutral site events and ESPN Bracketbusters.