Setting up CFB 2013

* Was looking through the opening week schedule for the ACC.  If the ACC is planning to have a game on Labor Day that will have some interest, they're going to have to move some games around.  BC, Duke and Wake Forest are currently open, but a conference game involving those three schools isn't going to move the needle.  The best looking game that weekend is Georgia at Clemson, but with Georgia hosting South Carolina the following week, I get the feeling that Georgia would strongly resist moving the date of that to Labor Day.  BYU at Virginia is also that weekend, but the Cougars would be hosting Texas on a short week  if they elected to move that one.  Same with the Penn St- Syracuse game at Met Life Stadium.

* Speaking of that Penn St.-Syracuse game, I do not know who the rights holder is for the game.  I've sent notes to both schools' media relations departments and have not yet received a response.  I'm listing it as a Big Ten game until I hear otherwise.

* Always important to check on when other sporting events conflict with college football schedules.  CBS's SEC schedule is expected to start during the 3rd week of the season.  ABC will carry NASCAR Nextel Cup in the evening on 9/7 and 10/12.  ESPN will have NASCAR Nationwide races throughout most of the season, though they'll have those races on Fridays the same weekends ABC has Nextel Cup races.  As an aside, an interesting schedule quirk with the Nationwide races has that series off for two straight weeks at the end of October.

* Because the ACC made an extremely late change back to an eight game conference schedule, multiple ACC schools likely will end up playing two FCS schools.  So far that list starts with Clemson and Georgia Tech.  At least 3-4 other ACC schools could join that list.  If they win both of those games, they would still need five FBS wins to guarantee bowl eligibility.   The number of teams needing a game this year is far fewer than previous years even with the amount of teams moving around.

* I'm told the Big East is still negotiating the TV rights for the 2013 conference championship game.  ESPN still gets 1st crack.  The game could be tacked on to the 2013 contract for ESPN, sold along with other Big East CCGs for future years to someone or it could be tacked onto a future regular season rightsholders' deal.

* Also with the Big East, the minimum number of games they must have carried on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 is 17, but that number was based on an eight team conference (28 conference games) and whatever number of non-conference games were available.  The number for 2013 will be 48 conference games, so I'd expect the number to be adjusted by ESPN and the conference.  ESPN is the full rightsholder to the conference right now, so for them to take on the additional games could be tough.  There is the ability for Boise St. and San Diego St. to take up spots in the late evening, and its possible there could be some doubling up on Thursdays or Fridays on ESPN & ESPN2, not through a doubleheader but by concurrent games.  There is also the matter of the syndication package taking on games out west.  Could the conference request that some games be sold off to another party?  Possibly, but that would be ESPN's decision to make.

* While I'm unaware of any minimums/maximums when it comes to the number of ACC football games that appear on the various ESPN platforms, there will also be some adjustments to that schedule to get extra games on the air.  We know that Syracuse and Boston College will be part of Friday night games and that there will be a Black Friday game.  I think the possibility exists that there will be a few more split regional ACC Network games.  The RSN package could also be expanded for another doubleheader or two.

* Let's assume FOX is again doing one game per week for the 1st three weeks of the season.  And yes, I know we don't have the complete Pac-12 schedule in hand.  Here's what I do see

• 8/31 - Assuming the Pac-12 doesn't put together a conference game for its opening week, Boise St. at Washington looks like its best offering.  And looking over the Big 12, there's nothing of substance that they're offering.
• 9/7 - The Big 12 put a conference game with West Virginia visiting Oklahoma, so that's inviting.  The non-conference games available with the Pac-12 look weak.  I'd say a conference game that weekend is possible.
• 9/14 - Cy-Hawk, Ole Miss-Texas and TCU-Texas Tech are all available.  Wisconsin visiting Arizona St., Ohio St. going to Cal, Tennessee at Oregon and Boston College at USC have to be under consideration.

* Handful of game notes...With that 9/7 date, the Notre Dame-Michigan game again appears to be under strong consideration for a Michigan home night game, likely on ESPN...There was also talk from Vanderbilt's AD that the Ole Miss-Vanderbilt game could end up as the opening Thursday night game for ESPN...When the Big 12 schedule was announced, two games were set with flexible dates: Texas at Iowa St. could move from 10/5 to Thursday 10/3, presumably for ESPN, and the Iowa St.-West Virginia game could be moved from 11//30 to Black Friday 11/29...The Iowa-Nebraska series being played on Black Friday was initially done for two years.  I have not heard if this has been extended.  Same goes for LSU-Arkansas.  Another SEC series could be requested for a two year stint on that date if CBS wants it.

* There's still a fair amount of speculation as to what FOX Sports One will look like when the switch is flipped from SPEED to the all-sports format.  The expectation remains that FOX would move the telecasts from F/X over to the network.  The possibility exists that some of the content on FSN could move as well.  I do not know if FOX would be able work in any alterations with pay-TV providers to get the channel in more homes before launch.

* With the mass amount of schools moving over the next few years, the folks in various conference offices who develop initial schedules that get handed over to athletics directors and television outlets deserve some kudos.  I'm sure it can't be easy to throw a school out of a scheduling program, along with any requests they have, and to tack on someone else.  In some cases, trying to juggle geography and scheduling "fairness" can't be easy.

Bowl selection postscript

Why not start out with the most polarizing topics...

* Northern Illinois - If you want to say they didn't deserve it, have at it.  If you want to say they didn't earn it, not true.  This system and its qualification parameters were agreed upon by the conferences and independents encompassing FBS.  They may have backed into it by using the lesser of the two qualification methods (finishing in the top 16 with both Louisville and Wisconsin finishing lower than 16th), but they played their way into that position.

No, they would not have been part of a playoff after the 2014, and they aren't in the title game this year.  The 2014 system does eliminate some of the qualification parameters that hamper the BCS, such as no more than two teams from a conference.  There's also two more at-large slots to be filled by this committee.  And Northern Illinois would have been part of one of those three access bowls in 2014 as the highest ranking "Group of Five" conference champion.

* Louisiana Tech - Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.  By not winning the WAC, they were guaranteed nothing.  Zero.  Zip.  The conference only had one tie-in, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, and sent its champion there.  San Jose St. was sent clear across the country, but its a bowl game.   Saturday morning, we knew there was a possibility that with a UCLA loss, NIU could get moved up.  The place to look for NIU for its poll help was the beating Nebraska took.  Getting pushed behind NIU in both polls was huge for them, and disastrous for Louisiana Tech.

I don't like it, but in these cases, bowls are going to look at a AQ conference team over a non-AQ team every time.  It sucks, but its fact unfortunately.  Arkansas St. was also in the running for the Liberty Bowl slot that La Tech coveted per the twitter timeline of Sun Belt PR man John McElwain, and arguably more worthy since they won their conference.

* Georgia Tech - Should not have been granted a waiver.  Had someone contend to me that GT should be in a bowl game because at 6-7 they stayed with Florida St.  In that sense, and I'm making a bit of a leap, because it was a moral victory for them to stay within a TD of FSU, they should have been in a bowl game.

No.  The NCAA screwed this one up, but the ACC and Miami put them in this spot far too late in the season.  The NCAA made the rules, they didn't stick by them.  Miami, by waiting until they were bowl eligible before eliminating themselves from bowl selection, did GT no favors since it force them to win arguably one of the two toughest games on their schedule to get to seven wins.  The ACC should have put pressure on Miami earlier in the season to declare their bowl intentions so that everyone was on the same page.

At 6-6, should they have went to a bowl in my mind?  Absolutely.  Qualified within the existing parameters of the system.  At 6-7 with 71 other eligible teams, and that's the key: 71 other eligible teams, they should not have been available for selection.  If we were under 70 teams, no issue with them taking a spot because the NCAA determined a 6-7 team who lost in a conference championship game to be part of the an eligible pool of teams after 6-6 teams who either had a win vs. FCS who didn't met scholarship requirements or 6-6 teams who had two FCS wins.

There is that whole matter of them going to a bowl game, while Middle Tennessee sits at home too.  9/29/12 - Middle Tennessee 49, Georgia Tech 24.

Let's get to some better topics.

* We have No. 1 vs. No. 2.  That's really all that matters in the BCS and the BCS executives will tell you that.  After that matchup is settled, its a shell game.

* There were stories earlier this year about how Kansas St. elected to cancel a series with Oregon.  Low and behold, we still got the game.

* The Holiday Bowl game between UCLA and Baylor will be awesome.  Fitting tribute that the final season for the WAC, who help put together the Holiday Bowl after the Arizona schools left the WAC and the conference lost the Fiesta Bowl tie-in, has a Holiday Bowl with two teams who should put up the points.  Also fitting that the other game managed by the Holiday Bowl committee, the Poinsettia Bowl, has two schools who in the early 90s played some great games.

1990: 62-34 BYU
1991: 52-52 Tie
1992: 45-28 SDSU
1993: 45-44 BYU

* I do wonder if Syracuse and WVU will dust off the Schwartzwalder Trophy for the Pinstripe Bowl.  Have heard mixed reviews on that idea.  Should be a lot of offense there too.  I also wonder if they considered taking Pitt at all.  I kinda feel bad that the BBVA Compass Bowl will have Pitt once again.  I suspect that if an SEC team would not have been available to this bowl, Pitt would have ended up playing UCF in Tampa.  The goal at that point in the selection order is to match and SEC team vs. a Big East team.

* Contrast of styles: Arizona St.-Navy in the Kraft Fights Hunger Bowl

* After the title game and Kansas St.-Oregon, the Cotton Bowl and the Chick-Fil-A Bowl are the prime rib of the non-BCS games.  The Outback Bowl is the baked potato.

Bowl Guesses, Part Deux

Now that we know Georgia Tech is going to a bowl at 6-7 and that we have 70 other eligible teams, I'll try this again.  Going to make the following assumptions:

* Northern Illinois wins MAC, which means Kent St. does not go to a BCS bowl.  I'm not sure that they would even if Kent St. wins.  The loss by Rutgers last night I think hurt them a little bit.
* Stanford wins the Pac-12
* Alabama wins the SEC.
* Florida St. wins the ACC
* UCF wins C-USA.  This affects the selections of the four of C-USA's bowl tie-in.
* Kansas St. wins the Big 12
* Nebraska wins the Big Ten
* Arkansas St. wins the Sun Belt
* Boise St. wins but doesn't move enough in BCS rankings to be an at-large option
* Connecticut loses to Cincinnati and does not go to a bowl
* Pittsburgh beats USF, becomes #72 and takes a Big East bowl slot
* Florida, as a top 4 BCS team who does not win a conference, automatically goes to a BCS bowl.  I'm not sure that Oregon will get there, but I do believe they'll be selected by the BCS.
* The Sugar will get 1st chance to replace Alabama.  After that selection, the at-large order is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange.
* I have the Sugar selecting Oklahoma over Clemson, unless Oklahoma is upset by TCU.

Selection notes
* I have two MAC teams sitting at home: Bowling Green & Central Michigan.  Stinks for them.  I did juggle the MAC selections to get good matchups between my projected MAC champ & WAC champ Utah St., plus Louisiana Tech, ranked most of this year, and Kent St.  I figured that without a Big Ten team opposite the MAC in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, the bowl would request to take the closest available team and that is Toledo.
* Heard that Arizona is requesting to not play in the New Mexico Bowl because they have a top draw men's basketball home game later that night vs. Clemson and are requesting a different bowl game.
* I believe the Big East will forego their BBVA Compass Bowl selection so that Pitt will not be sent there for the 3rd straight year.
* With the ACC and Army not able to fill their tie-ins for the Military Bowl, I have the MAC filling a backup selection and the Sun Belt backfilling as an at-large.
* I thought of the possibility of the Big East asking the Russell Athletic Bowl to take Cincinnati instead of Rutgers due to RU leaving the conference, but that could lead to a regular season rematch between Virginia Tech and Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl, so I switched NC State and VT.
* Also thought about the possibility of West Virginia playing in the Pinstripe Bowl against Syracuse due to the regional nature of that rivalry, though I believe WVU's travel rep wins out even with a trip to California.
* For that same reason (ie. Oregon St. having a solid travel rep), I have them leapfrogging UCLA for the Alamo Bowl slot.  Should have plenty of Bruin fans in San Diego County.
* I did consider the possibility of Duke vs. Vanderbilt in the Music City Bowl, but I believe that they'll look to Ole Miss to fill some extra hotel rooms and seats.  UCF vs. Vanderbilt should be a great game too.
* I believe Clemson will go back to Atlanta, where they started the season.  I have them vs. Mississippi St. to avoid the repeat of the Palmetto State matchup.  Wouldn't be stunned if South Carolina was selected though.
* I really wanted to make sure that San Jose St. was placed in a game.  A game vs. UL-Monroe should be an interesting contrast.  SJSU played solid defense most of the year and outlasted Louisiana Tech, a team who plays a similar hyperspeed style to ULM.

Confirmed selections in bold

New Mexico: Arizona St. vs. Nevada
Famous Idaho Potato: Utah St. vs. Northern Illinois
Poinsettia: BYU vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg: Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina
New Orleans: Rice vs. UL-Lafayette
Las Vegas: Boise St. vs. USC
Hawai'i: SMU vs. Fresno St.
Little Caesar's: Toledo vs. Western Kentucky
Military: Middle Tennessee vs. Ohio
Belk: NC State vs. Cincinnati
Holiday: West Virginia vs. UCLA
Independence: Louisiana Tech vs. Kent St.
Russell Athletic: Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
Texas: TCU vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces: Air Force vs. Tulsa
Pinstripe: Baylor vs. Syracuse
Kraft Fights Hunger: Navy vs. Arizona
Alamo: Oklahoma St. vs. Oregon St.
Buffalo Wild Wings: Texas Tech vs. Wisconsin
Music City: Duke vs. Ole Miss
Sun: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Liberty: UCF vs. Vanderbilt
Chick-Fil-A: Clemson vs. Mississippi St.
Gator: Michigan St. vs. South Carolina
Heart of Dallas: Iowa St. vs. Purdue
Capital One: Michigan vs. Georgia
Outback: Northwestern vs. LSU
Cotton: Texas vs. Texas A&M
BBVA Compass: UL-Monroe vs. San Jose St.
GoDaddy.com: Ball St. vs. Arkansas St.

Fiesta: Kansas St. vs. Oregon
Rose: Nebraska vs. Stanford
Orange: Florida St. vs. Louisville
Sugar: Florida vs. Oklahoma
BCS Championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama

What I learned in CFB TV this year

Was an interesting year.

* FOX was a welcomed addition to many of our Saturdays.  As a nation we likely saw more of both the Big 12 and Pac-12 than in prior seasons on both the broadcast network and F/X.  In a couple years we might see some more CFB on FOX when the rumored FOX Sports One comes to fruition and FOX looks to move more MLB to its cable network.

* I learned that the Big Ten, at 12 teams, continues to have a requirement of 41 contracted games but that those can be spread out over ABC, ESPN and ESPN2.  There used to be a requirement that no more than 17 games could air on ABC, but that no longer exists.

* On the flip side, we saw less FSN than previous years.  Not in terms of games, but in terms of RSNs carrying the games.  Comcast dropped the programming from its RSNs about a month before the season started and was only able to replace those games on a piecemeal basis in some of those markets.  Chicago was completely shut out of FSN games.  ROOT Sports, in their Northwest and Rocky Mountain RSNs, also dumped out of many games in favor of Big Sky or Mountain West regional contests.  That hurt both the Big 12 and C-USA packages.  Next year, and possibly this year after it has finished, I'll drop FSN down to "regional syndication" for both the Big 12 and C-USA due to the hybrid nature of distribution.

* The Pac-12 Network started this year.  Was a welcome sight tor those who were able to get the channel.  DirecTV continues to be the national carrier without the channel, though Charter in Los Angeles is notable for not carrying it either.  Basketball, while encompassing more events on the channel, likely won't drive either one to make a deal anytime soon.  Wait 'til next year.

* The addition of Missouri and Texas A&M caused additional headaches for ESPN when it came to the television appearances for the SEC.  We had one SEC Network doubleheader and a couple split regional windows, which I'm told the SEC prefers not to do.  The regional cable package didn't increase in size, rumored to be due to FOX and Comcast knowing those games would be lost to "Project X" whenever it takes shape. It also didn't help that the CBS primetime window this year was in November.  When it has been in September & October in previous years, ESPN would essentially flip flop their early afternoon Big Ten games to the evening and have the SEC take the early slots.  Couldn't do that this year, though ESPN carried multiple Big Ten games at 3:30pm to make up the difference.

* Random stats: The ACC had its lowest number of contracted ABC games since 2005 with nine.  Conversely, the Big East had six games on ABC, tying its highest number with 2009...The SEC had 29 games on ESPN/ESPN2, up eight over 2011...The WAC, who will no longer sponsor football after this year, had the same number of ESPN/ESPN2 games as the Sun Belt (3)...The Big 12, by realigning its TV deals, increased the number of broadcast network games it had this year, up five to 21 games.  FOX had nine of those games, ABC had 12.  The conference had 14 fully distributed national cable games. ESPN had five, F/X carried nine.

Bowl Predictions for 2012-13

* 61 teams are eligible going into Friday's games
* Based on point spreads of this week's games and using a guideline of a 3.5 point home favorite or better or a 1 point road underdog or better, I'm considering the following teams bowl eligible: Virginia Tech, Michigan St., Purdue, Central Michigan, West Virginia, Rice & Baylor.
* I'm considering Georgia Tech to be eligible, regardless of losing the GT game.  At 6-7, they would be at least conditionally eligible.
* I have Wake Forest as a 5-7 bowl eligible team as the best APR of 5 win teams, just ahead of Missouri.

70 teams on the nose.  What a cluster.  Here we go. Confirmed teams in bold

THESE ARE GUESSES!!

New Mexico: Arizona St. vs. Nevada
Famous Idaho Potato: Utah St. vs. Toledo
Poinsettia: BYU vs. Fresno St.
St. Petersburg: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
New Orleans: East Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee
Las Vegas: San Diego St. vs. Arizona
Hawai'i: Boise St. vs. Rice
Little Caesar's: Kent St. vs. UL-Lafayette
Military: West Virginia vs. Bowling Green
Belk: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Holiday: Washington vs. Oklahoma St.
Independence: Louisiana Tech vs. Wake Forest
Russell Athletic: Louisville vs. Virginia Tech
Texas: Purdue vs. TCU
Armed Forces: Air Force vs. Tulsa
Pinstripe: Syracuse vs. Baylor
Kraft Fights Hunger: Navy vs. USC
Alamo: Oregon St. vs. Oklahoma
BW3: Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
Music City: Vanderbilt vs. Ohio
Sun: UCLA vs. Duke
Liberty: UCF vs. San Jose St.
Chick-Fil-A: NC State vs. LSU
Gator: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi St.
Heart of Dallas: Iowa St. vs. Michigan St.
Capital One: Michigan vs. Florida
Outback: Northwestern vs. South Carolina
Cotton: Texas vs. Texas A&M
BBVA Compass: UL-Monroe vs. Ball St.
GoDaddy.com: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas St.

Rose: Stanford vs. Nebraska
Fiesta: Kansas St. vs. Oregon
Sugar: Georgia vs. Clemson
Orange: Florida St. vs. Rutgers
NCG: Notre Dame vs. Alabama

12/1 CFB Confirmations

12/1 Guesses
Full list of games

If there are any TV confirmations today, here's the list.  Thanks for stopping by the site and the blog during football season.  Please stick around for basketball season.  Fewer in season TV adjustments, but tons of games.

EDIT: Everything except Kansas-West Virginia went on six day pick.  My guesses haven't changed.

I'll do a bowl predictions thread later this week.

12pm F/X:
12pm ESPN & WatchESPN:
12pm ESPN2 & WatchESPN:
2:30pm FSN: Kansas at West Virginia
3:30pm ABC:
7pm ESPN2:
7:45pm ESPN & WatchESPN:
8pm ABC:
10:30pm ESPN2:
TBA ESPN3:

11/23 & 11/24 Late Selections plus 12/1 Selections

Guesses for 11/23 & 11/24 late selections

* Toledo-NIU is the key MAC game in the west and if NIU wins on 11/14, it would render any west games moot. MAC East would be the focus.
* Miami (FL) at Duke, more of less, would decide the ACC Coastal.  Georgia Tech cannot win the ACC Coastal it in a tiebreaker with Miami because the Hurricanes won head-to-head.  They need to win this week vs. Duke, then hope for a Duke win over Miami to clinch the ACC Coastal.
* Of the three games at 3:30pm, I'm expecting Florida-Florida St. to be national even though it means nothing to either the ACC or SEC, though it could be important to the ACC and/or SEC having two BCS teams.  Yes, knock the ACC, it deserves it, but if Florida St. and Clemson are top ten, there's probably a decent chance both will have BCS aspirations, particularly since Florida St. and Clemson can't play each other in the ACC title game.
* Per TitanTV, FOX's evening window is a 6:30pm start time.  For some reason, FOX moved from 3pm & 7pm times this week to 2:30pm & 6:30pm respectively.
* Missouri-Texas A&M may not mean anything by the time it kicks off when it comes to the SEC West title, but I think it will be the ESPN game even though Palmetto State matchup could have BCS bowl implications for at-large spots.
* I'm assuming Oregon beats Stanford, making it black-n-white for FOX to choose a game, a choice to take the top ranked Pac-12 team.  If they don't, FOX will have to weigh the possibility of Stanford facing UCLA twice in back-to-back weeks if UCLA wins the Crosstown Rivalry & wins the Pac-12 South.  Yes, its very real.  And there are scenarios where Stanford would host UCLA, but UCLA could also host back-to-back games with Stanford.

Friday
11am ESPNU: Buffalo vs. Bowling Green
TBA ESPN3: Ohio at Kent St.

Saturday
12pm ESPN2: Miami (FL) at Duke
12pm ESPNU: Rutgers at Pittsburgh
12:30pm ACC Network: Maryland at North Carolina
12:30pm ACC Network: Virginia at Virginia Tech
3pm ACC RSNs: Boston College at NC State
3:30pm ABC: Florida at Florida St.
3:30pm ESPN: Oklahoma at Oklahoma St.
3:30pm ESPN2: Wisconsin at Penn St.
3:30pm ESPNU: Vanderbilt at Wake Forest
6:30pm FOX: Oregon at Oregon St.
7pm ESPN: Missouri at Texas A&M
7pm ESPN2: South Carolina at Clemson
10:30pm Pac-12 Network: Stanford at UCLA

Guesses for 12/1

* No ESPNU slots on this day.  Wall-to-wall college basketball that day
* No Reverse Mirrors available.  ESPN2 has college basketball at 3pm, ESPN has MLS Cup action.
* ABC does not currently list a 12pm slot that day, just 3:30pm & 8pm.
* Big East contract says there will be one Saturday primetime game per year.  Here it is.  Cincinnati could win a share of conference, possibly the entire thing, based on remaining games.

12pm ESPN: Pittsburgh at USF
12pm ESPN2: C-USA Championship
12pm F/X: Oklahoma St. at Baylor
12pm FSN: Kansas at West Virginia
3pm ESPN3: Middle Tennessee at Arkansas St.
3:30pm ABC: Oklahoma at TCU
7pm ESPN2: Cincinnati at Connecticut
7:45pm ESPN: ACC Championship
8pm ABC: Texas at Kansas St.
10:30pm ESPN2: Boise St. at Nevada