Big 12, FOX and Revenue

The Big 12 and FOX Sports Media Group and rumored to be close to a new pay tv rights agreement that would pay the conference anywhere between $60 million to $70 million.  My guess is those games will air on FSN affiliates and F/X.  By the movement of Colorado & Nebraska to other conferences, and the existing terms of the deals to remain the same, the Big 12 will gain roughly a 20% increase in revenue per team in 2011-12 without doing anything because ABC and FSN did not change the terms of their existing agreements.  But does the new agreement get the big three of Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M close to the number of $20 million in conference distribution?

Depends on how you crunch the numbers.  From a pure TV standpoint, today the Big 12 receives $60 million from ABC/ESPN for football on ABC, which includes the Texas-Texas A&M game if it airs on ESPN, and men’s basketball.  It then receives $19.5 million from FSN for football on FSN, which includes all other football games sublicensed to ESPN, and all other sports (women’s basketball, baseball, etc.).

The Big 12 divides up its TV revenue with an appearance based model. 50% of the money received is distributed to all conference members equally (the conference office might get a cut too). The rest of the money is distributed based on the number of appearances a school makes on TV within the conference’s TV agreements. From one ESPN article, TV appearances in football & men’s basketball are used to determine how to split the other 50%.

Since men’s basketball is included, a school like Kansas, who doesn’t appear on ABC in football as much as Oklahoma or Texas, can make up some ground through men’s basketball. We know that football drives these deals, but how much? If we say football is a base of 1, is men’s basketball .4 (ie. rights for a men’s basketball game are worth 40% of a football game)?

What also needs to be determined is if the existing revenue sharing/appearance fee model will change in any form.  Since the TV money has been equally divided, does that mean that a football game on FSN is now worth approx 3x as much as it is under the existing contract?  If the Big 12 pays $300K for a OOC game on FSN and $150K for a conference game, can we make the leap that the Big 12 will distribute $1 million for an OOC game and $500K for a conference game just to keep the appearance pool revenue at 50% of the FSN contract?  Or at least make changes to the amount that teams receive for playing on ABC?

The numbers make my head dizzy. In short, each of the big three would make slightly more than $12.5 million total from ABC/ESPN and FSN using 2010’s TV appearances in football & men’s basketball, plus the shared revenue from the TV deal.  I also included an “offset” since Nebraska & Colorado made TV appearances in 2010.  That offset was divided equally among the remaining ten teams in my projections, but since the offset is from appearances, it won’t make it to everyone’s bottom line.  I'm also making a boatload of assumptions with my numbers.  Please don't take them as gospel, my statistics background involves a couple courses in college.  But that is roughly a 75% increase in total TV revenue since the ABC deal isn't being reworked, over 300% just from FOX.

So if we’re at $13 million, how can we get to $20 million for these guys? NCAA credits from men’s basketball and bowl payouts then get lumped in. Some of that money is also distributed in favor of the teams who make the tournament and who goes to a bowl game.

In my opinion, its going to be close.

Who's In With Seedings

Here's who I got.  I know that some items could change, but Dayton is the only team that could crash the field.  If Dayton crashes the party, I'll put in a caveat at the bottom.

Here goes...

1 - Ohio St., Kansas, Duke, Pitt
2 - San Diego St., Texas, North Carolina, Notre Dame
3 - Purdue, BYU, Florida, Wisconsin
4 - Kentucky, Syracuse, Louisville, Connecticut
5 - Utah St., Georgetown, West Virginia, Arizona
6 - St. John's, Washington, Kansas St., Cincinnati
7 - George Mason, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Villanova
8 - Illinois, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
9 - Belmont, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Penn St.
10 - Gonzaga, Clemson, Michigan St., Michigan
11 - Marquette, Richmond, Virginia Tech, Butler
12 - St. Mary's, Tennessee, Florida St./UAB**, UCLA/Georgia**
13 - Oakland, Memphis, Princeton, Bucknell
14 - Morehead St., Long Island, Wofford, Indiana St.
15 - St. Peter's, Northern Colorado, Akron, UC-Santa Barbara
16 - UNC-Asheville, Boston U., Hampton/UALR**, UTSA/Alabama St.**

** - First Four games

If Dayton were to win, slot them between Memphis & Bucknell.  Colorado would be out and the FF games would be Georgia vs. UCLA and UAB vs. Florida St.  Both FF at-large games would be for 12 seeds instead of one for a 12 and one for a 13.

How did I go about this?  Used RealTimeRPI, Sagarin (purple column) and Ken Pomeroy as of this morning, plus I did move a few teams around, but no more than one seed line.

EDIT: Made a late change because I left out Princeton, Ivy League champ.  Colorado gets dumped out because of the switch and both FF at-large games are for 12 seeds.

Pac-12 Football Fridays

The Big East has used Friday for several regular season telecasts, and now the Pac-12 appears to be ready to try it out.  During the week, rumblings appeared that USC-Colorado in early November could be moved to a Friday slot and now we've seen the Missouri-Arizona St. game moved to a Friday evening start. 

In the case of Missouri-Arizona St., there may have been considerations made due to both Arizona schools preferring night games during the 1st month of the season.  The schools want night games due to the extreme temperatures in Arizona at that time of year.  Quite possible that ABC/ESPN wanted the game, but with several choices available for Pac-12 TV partners (Cal-Colorado, Hawai'i-Washington, Utah-USC), its possible that they could not agree on an ideal time for a Saturday game, so moving it to Friday was acceptable, particularly since they could play it in the evening in Tempe after the FIU-Louisville game.

The possible Friday move of USC-Colorado is also interesting.  Friday has been the preferred date among the few fans that have commented about it online and seems to be preferred by the administration due to the congestion around campus due to night classes.  It is still possible that the game could move to Thursday, but ESPN is inquiring about moving the game and a Thursday night game (Florida St.-Boston College) is scheduled for a 8pm start.  So unless it is put on ESPN2, I think Friday is more likely.  Network may be in question for a move to Friday and that may be the opening Friday of the NBA season and the game could be on ESPN2.

So ESPN/ESPN2 Friday schedule looks like this

9/2 - TBA (possibly Marshall-WVU or Wake Forest-Syracuse)
9/9 - FIU-Louisville 7pm ESPN, Missouri-Arizona St. 10:30pm ESPN
9/16 - Iowa St.-Connecticut 8pm ESPN/ESPN2
9/23 - UCF-BYU 8pm ESPN
9/30 - Utah St.-BYU 8pm ESPN
10/7 - TBA (possibly Boise St.-Fresno St.)
10/14 - TBA (possibly a WAC conference game)
10/21 - Rutgers at Louisville 8pm ESPN
10/28 - BYU vs. TCU @Arlington 8pm ESPN
11/4 - TBA (possibly USC-Colorado)
11/11 - USF-Syracuse 8pm ESPN2
11/18 - TBA (possibly WAC or Pac-12 game)
11/25 - Leaving this day alone since it often involves a large schedule of games
12/2 - MAC Championship @Detroit 8pm ESPN2

For Black Friday we know that there likely be a Big East-Big Ten doubleheader on ABC with either Louisville-USF or Pittsburgh-WVU, with the other on ESPN/ESPN2, followed by Iowa-Nebraska.  The WAC has often placed a late evening game here and there been some discussion that ESPN would like a late evening WAC game for that date.

Big Ten, ABC/ESPN Discussing Contract Changes

Per a report over at the great TV sports website The506.com, the Big Ten and ABC/ESPN are discussing alterations to the existing television contract.  The item specifically being discussed is that ABC's telecast windows will no longer be exclusive, meaning that the Big Ten Network could air games simultaneously as ABC does.  Currently that happens once a year, usually in the final week of the Big Ten schedule.  With Nebraska entering the conference, there will be more games available for all parties and to televise every game, there will need to be some flexibility.  There is some great discussion of what ABC could get from the conference if it were to drop exclusivity:

• More telecast opportunities for ABC/ESPN.  Currently up to 17 games on ABC, 24 on ESPN/ESPN2.
   
• Big Ten Network could drop its ability to either
• Jump ESPN/ESPN2 at times during the season
• Require all teams to have a conference game on the Big Ten Network

• Flexibility in selecting games for prime time games
• I have doubts about this one with many stadiums not having permanent lighting

• Night games in the month of November
   
• Possibility for games on non-traditional days during the season, such as Black Friday or Thursday nights

To me, all seem possible except for flexibility in night games due to the lack of lighting at some stadiums.  Bears watching as the offseason and game selections come in.  Typically the Big Ten sets its night games & start times for homecoming games for the season in mid-April.

C-USA, ESPN, CBS and FOX: Why its Important to Read a Contract

Sports Business Journal came out with an article today detailing how ESPN and CBS were unhappy with Conference USA's recent right deal with FOX Sports Media Group.  The article notes that ESPN feels that they were not provided with a right of 1st refusal on FOX's offer and CBS is upset that they were not provided the chance to pick up ESPN's portion of C-USA rights.  Let's examine relevant portions of this issue:

Right of First Refusal
From Wikipedia (who I hate using as a source, but oh well) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_of_first_refusal

Basically ESPN, in the existing contract that expires at the end of June of 2011 because college contracts tend to run on the athletic calendar cycle (July-June), is asserting that they had the ability to match any offer that C-USA was going to consider.  I don't believe FOX's offer is one they could have matched, particularly in the number of games and in the scheduling area, where ESPN previously aired many C-USA games on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Fridays where FOX was going to keep Thursday night games as an option, but not schedule the other weeknights.  ESPN could have matched the money aspect of the conference without breaking a sweat.

What we don't know is the terms of the Right of First Refusal.  That right is negotiatiable and is not black/white in terms of what constitutes that right.  Does ESPN have to respond to C-USA within a period of time?  Do they have to match all terms or just the money?

CBS
CBS was upset because they didn't get a chance to get in on ESPN's portion of the rights because it appears that ESPN was still negotiating with C-USA up until two weeks before the FOX agreement was announced.  When CBS announced that it had negotiated a rights agreement with C-USA, the press release was vague and did not include any game guarantees.  My opinion is that wording was intentional with the hope that an ESPN agreement could fall through.  But since CBS will be compensated with extra live games for CBS Sports Network, their anger seems to have subsided.

FOX
Doesn't appear that they did anything wrong here.  Don't believe they induced C-USA to breach the contract with ESPN and negotiated in good faith.  They provided a better offer than ESPN, according to C-USA, both financially and coverage wise.

Here's a brief write up on the deal.

ESPN
The lesson here is not to screw with ESPN's lawyers.  I'm not convinced that they want to have the C-USA rights back unless its on their terms, which in my opinion not at the level that FOX agreed to.  I see ESPN sending a message to other conferences that their rights and contracts must be lived up to.  If they sue, I'm not sure I'd want C-USA back if C-USA isn't a willing partner.  But I do want them and others to know that the contract must be lived up to.

ESPN's posture does give the impression that they are "Big Brother" or the "800 lb. gorilla", but they have a valid point.  Bottom line: ESPN knows their contractual rights and they'll assert that they be met.

C-USA
They screwed up.  If ESPN and FOX were brought into meetings to discuss "game sharing" after the FOX deal was agreed upon, C-USA is essentially acknowleding that they didn't provide the proper legal notifications to ESPN in my mind. Otherwise they wouldn't bother with ESPN and continue working with FOX and CBS.  Whomever was in charge of the C-USA negotiations had to know that ESPN required the ability to match an offer.  If that right was ignored, they have a problem.  They, not FOX or any other entity, could have to compensate ESPN if this determined to be a breach of contract.

Week Three Guesses

Thursday
LSU at Mississippi St., ESPN 8pm (confirmed)

Friday
Iowa St. at Connecticut, ESPN/ESPN2 8pm (confirmed)

Saturday
Arizona St. at Illinois, ESPN 12pm
West Virginia at Maryland, ESPN2 12pm
Penn St. at Temple, ESPNU 12pm
Northwestern at Army, CBS Sports Network 12pm
Eastern Michigan at Michigan, Big Ten 12pm
Miami (OH) at Minnesota, Big Ten 12pm
South Carolina St. at Indiana, Big Ten 12pm
Southeast Missouri St. at Purdue, Big Ten 12pm
Duke at Boston College, ACC Network (pay TV) 12pm
Virginia at North Carolina, ACC Network (over the air) 12:30pm
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt, SEC Network 12:30pm
Colorado St. vs. Colorado, FSN 2pm
Michigan St. at Notre Dame, NBC 3:30pm
Tennessee at Florida, CBS 3:30pm
Pittsburgh at Iowa, ABC/ESPN 3:30pm
Ohio St. at Miami (FL), ABC/ESPN 3:30pm
Utah at BYU, ABC 3:30pm
Wisconsin vs. Northern Illinois, ESPNU 3:30pm
Texas Tech at New Mexico, Versus 4pm
UL-Monroe at TCU, the mtn. 6pm
Oklahoma St. at Tulsa, FSN 6:30pm
Auburn at Clemson, ESPN2 7pm
Louisville at Kentucky, ESPNU 7pm
Navy at South Carolina, SEC/FSN Regional 7pm
North Texas at Alabama, PPV 7pm
Troy at Arkansas, SEC/CSS 7:30pm
Washington at Nebraska, ESPN 7:45pm
Oklahoma at Florida St., ABC 8pm
Washington St. at San Diego St., CBS College 8pm
Hawai'i at UNLV, the mtn. 10pm
Syracuse at USC, FSN 10pm
Stanford at Arizona, ESPN2 10:30pm

Week Two Guesses for '11

Please note that I've moved the Iowa at Iowa St. game to Thursday.  This game is not confirmed and has not been announced by anyone to be moved to a weeknight.

There's a lot of Big Ten games this week, plus with no ABC window due to NASCAR, its kinda messy.  Also place on ACC Network cable game out there.  Not sure who will be doing those games so I just said "cable" instead of FSN, CSS, etc.

Thursday
Iowa at Iowa St., ESPN 8pm

Friday
FIU at Louisville, ESPN 7pm (confirmed)

Saturday
FAU at Michigan St., ESPN 12pm
Fresno St. at Nebraska, ESPN2 12pm
BYU at Texas, FSN 12pm
Virginia Tech at East Carolina, F/X 12pm
Cincinnati at Tennessee,  ESPNU 12pm
San Diego St. at Army, CBS Sports Network 12pm
Eastern Illinois at Northwestern, Big Ten 12pm
New Mexico St. at Minnesota, Big Ten 12pm
South Dakota St. at Illinois, Big Ten 12pm
Toledo at Ohio St., Big Ten 12pm
Virginia at Indiana, Big Ten 12pm
UAB at Florida, SEC Network 12:30pm
NC State at Wake Forest, ACC Network (over the air) 12:30pm
Rutgers at North Carolina, ABC 3:30pm
Alabama at Penn St., ABC/ESPN2 3:30pm
Arizona at Oklahoma St., ABC/ESPN2 3:30pm
Utah at USC, ABC 3:30pm
Boston College at UCF, FSN 3:30pm
Oregon St. at Wisconsin, ESPN 3:30pm
Stanford at Duke, ESPNU 3:30pm
UTEP at SMU, CBS Sports Network 3:30pm
Georgia Tech at Middle Tennessee, CSS 3:30pm
South Carolina at Georgia, ESPN2 7pm
California at Colorado, Versus 7pm
Mississippi St. at Auburn, ESPNU 7pm
New Mexico at Arkansas, SEC/FSN Regional 7pm
Connecticut at Vanderbilt, PPV/Local TV 7pm
Southern Illinois at Ole Miss, PPV 7pm
Central Michigan at Kentucky, SEC/CSS 7:30pm
Purdue at Rice, CBS Sports Network 8pm
Northwestern St. at LSU, PPV 8pm
Notre Dame at Michigan, ESPN 8pm (confirmed)
Missouri at Arizona St., ESPN2 10:30pm
Nevada at Oregon, FSN 10:30pm