Sunday, September 18, 2022

CFB TV Guesses for 2022 Week 5 (10/1/22)

Here are the games already set for television and/or webcast. Here are the known available telecast windows. 

I have done my best to list what TV windows are out there. Every listing service has a little different schedule for these networks. It is also possible that a window could be eliminated or the time of a window could shift slightly to accommodate a network's needs.

A few notes and considerations:

Preselected for time and/or TV, but not both:

Games where either the time or TV network has been set, but not both
* Northwestern at Penn State (ESPN Networks, Time TBD)
* Purdue at Minnesota (TV TBD, 12pm)
* Rutgers at Ohio State (TV TBD, 3:30pm)
* Indiana at Nebraska (TV TBD, 7pm or 7:30pm ET)
* UC Davis at Montana State (ESPN2 or ESPNU, 10:15pm)

Notes
* Zap2It indicated that CBS was choosing between Alabama at Arkansas and LSU at Auburn.
* FS1 doesn't have a 12pm ET slot available due to a NASCAR Truck Series race.
* I gave FOX the top Big Ten and Pac-12 choices, and ESPN received the top Big 12 choice.
* I think its valid to question whether Rutgers at Ohio State could have been FOX's top choice, but as mentioned above, it is locked to the 3:30pm time slot as OSU's homecoming game. So I went with Michigan at Iowa over the 2nd Big 12 selection (in this set of guesses, West Virginia at Texas).  There's precedent for FOX having their best game outside of the "Big Noon" slot.  Example involved OSU's homecoming last season vs. Maryland on 10/9, when FOX ended up putting Penn State at Iowa at 4pm along with taking their pregame show to Iowa City.
* I probably would have had Rutgers at Ohio State on BTN if Michigan State had not lost to Washington. Wake Forest at Florida State would have slotted in to the ABC 3:30pm slot.
* In a very long roundabout way, FOX taking Michigan at Iowa for Big Noon is also a justification for  NC State at Clemson being the primetime game.  Not that the game isn't worth a primetime slot as both should come in to the game highly ranked, though Clemson does have the tougher Week 4 opponent in Wake Forest. 
* Kentucky at Ole Miss doesn't scream "ESPN Primetime" but its not easy to place it at 12pm ET and, say, LSU at Auburn in primetime instead.  Part of balancing name brands vs. worthiness.  Three of the four play non-conference games that they should be favored in, and Auburn is favored over Missouri in Week 4.  All things being equal and expectations holding to form, Kentucky at Ole Miss is more worthy.
* TV listings indicated three windows for Pac-12 Networks.
* At this time, ESPNU lists a 30 for 30 rerun at 10pm ET, so that seems to default UC Davis at Montana State to ESPN2.
* A case could be made that Oregon State at Utah should be ahead of Stanford at Oregon in the Pac-12 order, assuming ESPN picks ahead of Pac-12 Networks.  If that were to occur, move the ESPN window up 30 minutes to 10pm ET as the TV window has to start no later than 8pm local time.

All times Eastern

12pm ABC: Oklahoma at TCU
12pm FOX: Michigan at Iowa
12pm ESPN: LSU at Auburn
12pm ESPN2: Northwestern at Penn State
12pm ESPNU: Cincinnati at Tulsa
12pm SEC: South Carolina State at South Carolina
12pm ACC: Georgia Tech at Pitt
12pm BTN: Purdue at Minnesota
12:30pm ACC RSNs: Virginia at Duke
3pm Pac-12: California at Washington State
3:30pm ABC: Rutgers at Ohio State
3:30pm CBS: Alabama at Arkansas
3:30pm FOX: West Virginia at Texas
3:30pm ESPN: Wake Forest at Florida State
3:30pm ESPN2: Oklahoma State at Baylor
3:30pm FS1: Iowa State at Kansas
3:30pm ESPNU: SMU at UCF
3:30pm ACC: Louisville at Boston College
3:30pm BTN: Michigan State at Maryland
4pm SEC: Texas A&M at Mississippi State
6:30pm Pac-12: Oregon State at Utah
7pm ESPN: Kentucky at Ole Miss
7pm ESPN2: Texas Tech at Kansas State
7pm NFLN: Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
7pm ESPNU: Temple at Memphis
7:30pm ABC: NC State at Clemson
7:30pm FS1: Illinois at Wisconsin
7:30pm SEC: Georgia at Missouri
7:30pm ACC: Virginia Tech at North Carolina
7:30pm BTN: Indiana at Nebraska
10pm Pac-12: Colorado at Arizona
10:15pm ESPN2: UC Davis at Montana State
10:30pm ESPN: Stanford at Oregon
11pm FS1: Arizona State at USC

Streaming (ESPN3/ESPN+/ACCNX)
Wagner at Syracuse
East Carolina at South Florida
Bowling Green at Akron
Northern Illinois at Ball State
Miami (OH) at Buffalo
Ohio at Kent State
Central Michigan at Toledo
New Hampshire at Western Michigan
The Citadel at App State
ULM at Arkansas State
South Alabama at Louisiana
Texas State at James Madison
Gardner-Webb at Marshall
Liberty at Old Dominion

11 comments:

Schmolik said...

After 41-12, you have Auburn getting priority over Penn State for ESPN at noon? Must be because Northwestern really sucks!

Matt Sarzyniak said...

@Schmolik - Take a look at who beat Northwestern yesterday.

JaredTheBear said...

This would likely put Ohio State @ Northwestern in the lead for Ohio State's BTN appearance.

Chris said...

Any chance acc network tries to cram 4 games like they did earlier this year with 11,2,5 and 8 pm kickoff and avoid accnx cuse game?

Matt Sarzyniak said...

@Chris - Sure, but at the moment they're only listing three TV windows.

Unknown said...

https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-releases/2022/09/pat-mcafee-joins-espns-college-gameday-built-by-the-home-depot/ The first alternate mcafee telecast is tentatively planned for October 1st. So that might shift things a bit.

William said...

The only tv guesses I would change are:

1) Change Oklahoma State vs. Baylor on Fox at 3:30 and place the West Virginia-Texas game in the 3:30 ESPN2 slot. My suggestion is based on the fact that both Oklahoma State and Baylor are currently in the Top 20, while West Virginia is regarding by many to be the worst team in the Big 12 this year. I assume your pick on this is somewhat similar to your note in your analysis about long-standing name brand vs individual game worthiness.

2) Move the Oregon State-Utah game to 10 PM on ESPN and place the Stanford-Oregon game at 6:30 pm on the Pac-12 network. Oregon State is a significantly better team than Stanford this year. The only caveat being Oregon will be a better TV draw than Utah or Oregon State.

One note of observation:

3 Pac-12 games start at 10 pm or later on your guesses. Hopefully, as USC, Washington, Oregon, and/or Utah have very good seasons, hopefully there will be fewer late Pac-12 games as the season goes along.

Matt Sarzyniak said...

I hear you regarding Oklahoma State at Baylor. At a minimum, swapping that game and Wake-FSU might work.

Darrell McKown said...

Regarding the ACC Network schedule, I think it's more likely they avoid ACCNX/ESPN+ by pushing another ACC game to ESPN2/U and dropping Temple at Memphis down to ESPN+.

I wouldn't be shocked to see FOX put their second best non-PAC 12 game in the FS1 evening slot since they don't have football on FOX then and the mid-afternoon game is going to get buried by Alabama-Arkansas, Ohio State and the ESPN mid-afternoon game anyway.

Anonymous said...

Enjoy following along. Thanks for doing this!

If Big Noon Kickoff comes to Iowa City, the game will be an afternoon game, maybe the night game (Since McAfee is doing the special on ESPN2, FOX might want to challenge that by putting their #1 game against it?). There's not room near the stadium for the show, so they can't move the panel to the stadium quickly. That's the reason they moved the PSU game last year to 4PM. I would imagine it would happen again this year with Michigan.

Matt Sarzyniak said...

@Anonymous - My understanding as to why PSU-Iowa was mid-afternoon last year is because FOX had both Maryland-Ohio State & Penn State-Iowa that Saturday. The Ohio State game was locked to noon as OSU's homecoming with the start time set months in advance, so PSU-Iowa couldn't be in the Big Noon slot. Don't think it had to do with pregame show setup.