Sunday, November 3, 2019

CFB TV Guesses for 2019 Week Twelve (11/13/19-11/16/19)

Here are the games already set for television and/or webcast.  Here are the known available telecast windows.

Through Week 11
* ESPN & FOX Sports share rights and first pick on the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12.  Based on the games selected and known selection orders, often provided from media member posts, here is what I believe were the 1st choice networks for each conference through the 10/19 selections by week number.

Please know that networks have admitted that weeknight games are selected/drafted separately and are not part of top choice selection for a given week.
  • Big 12
    • ESPN: 1, 2, 4, 6, 9, 10
      • Selections used, including future games: 18 (max of 23)
    • FOX Sports: 3, 5, 7, 8, 11
      • Six games confirmed for FOX broadcast network (min of 6)
    • Games on ABC, FOX, ESPN and FS1 (includes future games): 29 (min of 25)
      • Excluding UNI-Iowa St., which was to be Iowa St.'s member retained game
  • Big Ten
    • ESPN:  5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
      • Selections used, including future games: 22 (max of 27)
    • FOX Sports: 1, 2, 3, 4
      • Selections used, including future games: 22 (range of 24-27)
    • BTN requirements of two games with one being a intraconference game filled currently by all schools except Iowa and Penn St.
      • Ohio St. at Northwestern's second appearance may have come from the FS1 game on 10/18 that was moved to BTN.
  • Pac-12
    • ESPN: 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 11
      • Games on ABC: 2 (min of 2 with one in primetime)
        • Conference office says that neutral site games like Oregon vs. Auburn are allowed to count as an ESPN selection.
      • Selections used, including future games: 17 (max of 22)
    • FOX Sports:  3, 5, 6, 7, 10
      • Games on FOX: 7 (min of 8, must have one more in primetime)
      • Selections used: 16 (max of 22)
Things to know in advance
* The following games have had their network or network family set without a start time
  • UTEP at UAB (ESPN3)
  • Central Michigan at Ball St. (CBSSN)
  • Wyoming at Utah St. (All ESPN platforms except ESPN+)
  • New Mexico at Boise St. (All ESPN platforms except ESPN+)
  • Air Force at Colorado St. (All ESPN platforms except ESPN+)
* The SEC had a couple games' start times set in advance of the 12 day selection period with the TV windows set aside for the remaining four games:
  • 12pm CBS
  • 12pm ESPN
  • 3:30pm CBS
  • 7pm ESPN
* When CBS a 12pm & 3:30pm doubleheader, the 12pm game is selected after CBS's 3:30pm game & two selection by ESPN (see those options above).  ESPN is allowed to show games at the same time as the 12pm CBS game as it is a non-exclusive window.
* There will not be a 12pm SEC Network window.
* ACC RSNs are scheduled to receive a doubleheader at 12pm & 3:30pm.
* Pac-12 Networks are scheduled to carry Stanford & Colorado home men's basketball games at 10pm ET.

* Pac-12 selection order is
Decisions I made
* FOX supposedly has the top Big Ten pick on 11/16.  With ESPN taking the top selection for the Pac-12, I gave FOX the top Big 12 selection.
* I think its reasonable that Baylor at Oklahoma could be the FOX 12pm game as their best available game. Could be a slot for a six day hold if the concern is Baylor or Oklahoma losing on 11/9, which could put a Big Ten game on FOX at noon.
* I went with Indiana at Penn St. over Michigan St. at Michigan for FOX's top Big Ten pick due to Indiana being 7-2 headed into the game & PSU being undefeated. Will be curious to see if the Hoosiers end up being ranked coming into the game. Most of the schools ahead of them in the Receiving Votes area of the AP poll lost. To be honest, Indiana at Penn St. could hold up as the FOX 12pm game.
* FOX's Pac-12 selection, while not the first pick, still should get it a ranked team, plus it fulfills their broadcast network obligation to the conference.
* Alabama at Mississippi St. is going to be avoided by CBS at all costs.  At least I assume that.  I don't think the SEC Network selections already made for 4pm & 7:30pm would have been granted if CBS wasn't provided some assurance by ESPN that CBS wouldn't be "stuck" with using their final Alabama appearance on the Mississippi St. game, unless CBS intends to use their option to get a sixth Crimson Tide game.  A sixth game for a school on CBS is a rarely used provision that could be exercised, but I believe there's every intention for ESPN to take Alabama at Mississippi St.
* If LSU loses to Alabama, I think you could see CBS pull the trigger on taking Georgia at Auburn.  Would put Auburn at 4 CBS appearances, with the fifth likely for the Iron Bowl.

Wednesday 11/13
8pm ESPN2: Northern Illinois at Toledo
8pm ESPNU: Bowling Green at Miami (OH)

Saturday 11/16
12pm ABC: Michigan St. at Michigan
12pm CBS: Florida at Missouri
12pm FOX: Oklahoma at Baylor
12pm ESPN: LSU at Ole Miss
12pm ESPN2: West Virginia at Kansas St.
12pm FS1: Ohio St. at Rutgers
12pm ESPNU: TCU at Texas Tech
12pm BTN: Massachusetts at Northwestern
12pm ACC RSNs: Alabama St. at Florida St.
3pm ESPN3: UTEP at UAB
3:30pm ABC: Minnesota at Iowa
3:30pm CBS: Georgia at Auburn
3:30pm ESPN: Texas at Iowa St.
3:30pm ESPN2: Cincinnati at USF
3:30pm FS1: Kansas at Oklahoma St.
3:30pm ESPNU: Memphis at Houston
3:30pm CBSSN: Central Michigan at Ball St.
3:30pm BTN: Wisconsin at Nebraska
3:30pm ACC RSNs: Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
4pm FOX: Indiana at Penn St.
4pm ACCN: Duke at Syracuse
4pm Pac-12: Stanford at Washington St.
7pm ESPN: Alabama at Mississippi St.
7pm ESPN2: New Mexico at Boise St.
7pm FS1: USC at California
7pm ESPNU: Wyoming at Utah St.
7pm CBSSN: Tulane at Temple
7:30pm ABC: Wake Forest at Clemson
7:30pm ACCN: Lousville at NC State
8pm FOX: UCLA at Utah
10:15pm ESPN2: Air Force at Colorado St.
10:30pm ESPN: Arizona at Oregon
11pm FS1: Arizona St. at Oregon St.


Anonymous said...


What do you think the chances are that there is a hold on Big Ten so FOX can wait ti see the outcome of the Penn St and Minnesota game?


Jim J

Craig said...

I think this could be the second 6-day hold for the SEC. The fact that the 5th and 6th picks for SECN have already been placed, while CBS has the risk of being "stuck" with Alabama-Mississippi State, creates challenges. I think either LSU-Ole Miss or Auburn-Georgia could be the 3:30 pm game, but it depends on the results next week.

If LSU wins:
* 3:30 pm CBS - LSU-Ole Miss
* 7:00 pm ESPN - Georgia-Auburn
* Noon ESPN - Alabama-Mississippi State (as long as ESPN isn't playing "chicken" to try to pry the Iron Bowl from CBS, especially with slim pickings beyond it)
* Noon CBS - Florida-Missouri (if ESPN uses that, would CBS have the option to move one of the SECN games over to avoid the Alabama game, which would likely end up at 7:30 pm on SEC Network?)

If Alabama wins:
* 3:30 pm CBS - Georgia-Auburn
* 7:00 pm ESPN - Alabama-Mississippi State
* Noon ESPN - LSU-Ole Miss
* Noon CBS - Florida-Missouri

Matt Sarzyniak said...

I think you'll see more six day holds used this week also Craig.

Mark Falzone said...

Matt (or anyone),

Is there a general order to ACC picks each week? Something like:
1. ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 gets to pick first
2. ACCN picks next
3. ESPNU picks next
4. RSN picks next
5. ACCNX gets the rest?

Matt Sarzyniak said...

They might Jim, but I couldn't forecast a percentage.

Matt Sarzyniak said...

I generally assume the RSN & ACCNX are at the bottom. ACCN is the middle then ABC & the main ESPN cable nets in a group at the top.

Anonymous said...

imo why would fox put UCLA/UTAH on big fox with FS1 getting USC/CAL just curious��

Matt Sarzyniak said...

Because Utah is ranked in the top ten, leading the Pac-12 South at 5-1 and USC and Cal are at 5-4 & 4-4, respectively. UCLA & USC also have equal conference records at 4-2.