Monday, October 15, 2012

10/27 CFB TV Confirmations

Here's the timeslots to be filled.

What I thought would happen and will be proven incorrect.
Entire list of games for week nine

12pm ESPN & WatchESPN: Tennessee at South Carolina
12pm ESPN2 & WatchESPN: Iowa at Northwestern
12pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: Kentucky at Missouri
12pm FSN: Texas at Kansas
12pm BTN & BTN2Go.com: Indiana at Illinois
12pm Big East Network & ESPN3: Temple at Pittsburgh
12pm SEC Network & ESPN3: Ole Miss at Arkansas
12:30pm ACC Network & ESPN3: NC State at North Carolina
1pm ESPN3: Maryland at Boston College
3pm F/X:  UCLA at Arizona St.
3pm ACC RSNs & ESPN3: BYU at Georgia Tech
3pm Pac-12 Network & Pac-12.com: Colorado at Oregon
3:30pm FOX: Texas Tech at Kansas St.
3:30pm ABC with ESPN2 Reverse Mirror: Michigan St. at Wisconsin
3:30pm ABC with ESPN2 Reverse Mirror:  USC at Arizona
3:30pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: Duke at Florida St.
3:30pm FSN: TCU at Oklahoma St.
3:30pm BTN & BTN2Go.com: Purdue at Minnesota
3:30pm FOX College Sports: Navy at East Carolina
5:30pm ESPN & WatchESPN: Ohio St. at Penn St.
6pm ESPN3: Western Kentucky at FIU
6:15pm Pac-12 Network & Pac-12.com: Washington St. at Stanford
7pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: Texas A&M at Auburn
7pm FSN: Baylor at Iowa St.
7pm SEC/FOX RSNs & ESPN3: Massachusetts at Vanderbilt
7pm ESPN3: Syracuse at USF
8pm ABC: Notre Dame at Oklahoma
8pm ESPN2 & WatchESPN: Michigan at Nebraska
8:30pm ESPN & WatchESPN: Mississippi St. at Alabama

9:45pm Pac-12 Network (Bay Area & Rocky Mountain) & Pac-12.com: California at Utah

10:15pm Pac-12 Network & Pac-12.com: Oregon St. at Washington

Early kickoff times and the SEC

When you've been on the west coast for four days, then come to the east coast, stay at your parents' for a few days while watching Yankee games go far too long into the evening for a week, then drive a few hours back to your house for the 1st time in several days...your sleep patterns get totally messed up.

Hence, I'm writing at 2am ET.  Let's see how this goes.

I spotted a back & forth between an ESPN PR employee and Clay Travis, who runs Outkick The Coverage.  I don't have Clay as one of the people I follow on Twitter.  I have ESPN PR because they often tweet out game times for both college football and men's college basketball.  Its the crux of my site, so that's the decision that I made.

Anyways, Clay wrote an article and wasn't happy that his first trip to College Station for a game will be a pre-noon local time kickoff.  As I read the article, he seems to place the blame on ESPN "protecting" the Baylor-Texas game, which will be at 8pm on ABC.  I don't share his viewpoint at all, at least the opinion that Baylor-Texas is being "protected".

First, I don't believe that LSU-A&M should be the 12pm game.  When I did my late predictions this week, which were done before any games were played on Saturday, I felt the LSU-A&M game was going to be on CBS.  Someone in the know from an SEC school inferred to me that CBS wanted to do one home game each from the new members, Missouri & Texas A&M.  Missouri had a home game on CBS on 10/13 vs. Alabama (in part due to ESPN selecting South Carolina-LSU ahead of CBS thanks to concessions from CBS airing LSU-Alabama as a 2nd primetime game in '11), and A&M would not have another SEC home game until the Missouri game on 11/24.  Of the three available games, Alabama-Tennessee seemed like the lesser of the three games even though Alabama was likely going to be #1 after their game with Missouri.

Here's where things became messy with the six day pick.  Some blame lies with ESPN, some of this is a shared problem between the SEC and the networks:

1) ESPN committed specific games to specific time slots, but not a particular network - They did this with the Big 12, ACC and SEC games.  Did North Carolina-Duke, Georgia-Kentucky & Middle Tennessee-Mississippi St. need to be slotted for 7pm?  Could they have been available for 12pm?  Why wasn't Baylor-Texas available for 12pm, or Texas Tech-TCU available at 8pm, or why was Iowa St.-Oklahoma St. an option for all three time slots (12pm FX, 3:30pm & 8pm ABC), but not the other two games.  Why did Virginia Tech-Clemson have to air at 12pm?

I believe the time slot "locking" was part of the problem.  I don't know if the conferences/schools stipulated that a kickoff time decision had to be made on some of these games.  I did see that TCU, Kentucky & Mississippi St. have their games on 10/20 as homecoming, and much like the Big Ten schools could have requested a fixed kickoff time, or at least a limited range of times, instead of being open.

Then again, Oklahoma St. is having homecoming on 10/20 and were open about their kickoff time.  Different strokes for different folks maybe.

2) More people, at least nationally, are going to see LSU-Texas A&M regardless of when it kicks off compared to Baylor-Texas.  As Clay notes, Baylor-Texas is being split with Florida St.-Miami.  Of those four teams, FSU is the highest ranking team and I'd expect that game to be seen by the majority nationally.  The only place they'd be protecting anything is inside of Texas.  The rest of us probably are going to need ESPN3 or Gameplan if we even want to watch that one.

Heck, if anything, I'm surprised both weren't airing at the same time.  I've seen ESPN tout how well it does when it airs three Big Ten-SEC bowl games simultaneously over three networks on New Year's Day (Outback, Capital One, Gator).  I've seen ESPN PR toss their ratings numbers around when their great.  They'd love to let you know that some insane number of households in Texas were viewing either A&M or Texas AT THE SAME TIME across their networks!

3) Expansion has made things a cluster**** for SEC television scheduling - CBS didn't take more SEC games when A&M and Mizzou were added.  Neither did the FOX RSN package nor did Comcast/Charter's CSS, especially now that they know they won't have those games in a couple years once the SEC builds out their 24/7 network.  ESPN is stuck with a glut of SEC games, still has to fit in games from several other conferences on Saturdays, and they didn't increase the number of hours in the day nor find a way to fit games into smaller time slots.  The only thing they did was add the new late evening slots for the Pac-12 and last I checked, there aren't any SEC teams yet residing in the Mountain or Pacific time zones.

There are 99 SEC controlled games this year, up from 85 last year, not counting the conference championship.  CBS is taking the same 14 regular season games.  FOX & CSS took 15 games last year and are taking only 14 this year it appears.  There were nine PPV games last year.  There have been eight so far this year.  Let's say that there will be 12 this year.

Last year, ESPN had to spread 47 games across its cable networks plus the SEC Network syndication package.  This year that number should be 59 games.  That's 12 more games ESPN has to find a place for.  One of which they elected to use on their syndication package as part of a double header on 9/8 (WKU-Alabama).  Assuming that they won't do any split regional games as I've been told that the SEC asked that the package not have split regional games, 11 games will have to fit on the ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU schedule somewhere.  Roughly an extra game per week has to be placed somewhere, and because CBS has exclusivity in its 3:30pm and 8pm time slots, ESPN is limited as to where they can place those games.

I've heard from folks at SEC schools who have said that fitting in these extra games has been a headache for both ESPN and the schools.  Consider these items:

* The SEC minimum for games on ESPN & ESPN2 is 19.  They had 21 games on those two networks in all of 2011.  As of the 10/20 kickoffs, they'll already have 20 games on those networks with five more weeks of SEC games to slot into the schedule.

* Of those 21 last year, only two aired at 12pm (Utah St.-Auburn on 9/1, Texas A&M-Arkansas on 10/1), and A&M-Arkansas was due to the TV schedule shift when CBS does its primetime game.  We're now at three 12pm starts in '12 (Auburn-Mississippi St., Auburn-Arkansas, LSU-A&M) with a fourth likely coming on 11/3.  I suppose it kinda evens out when you add in that ESPNU had a pair of 12pm starts in 2011 and none have aired at that time in '12 yet, but I'd expect 1-2 12pm starts on ESPNU before the season's done.

So I don't think ESPN was out to protect Texas, though I do believe this game should have been a night game.  Feel free to leave a comment and tell me I'm off my rocker.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

10/27 CFB TV Selection Guesses

A few notes

* CBS has already selected the Florida-Georgia game from Jacksonville for its 3:30pm ET game.  A fairly safe bet either way when you look at the rest of the SEC schedule, save for Mississippi St.-Alabama which looks decent right now.
* FOX does not have a primetime game this week due to the World Series.  They'll have a 3:30pm game on FOX and a 3pm game on F/X
* I've moved the Michigan-Nebraska game up one hour to 7pm on ESPN2.  This is to accommodate a Pac-12 window in the evening, allow for Ohio St.-Penn St. to be a doubleheader on ESPN and give Notre Dame-Oklahoma a full national telecast on ABC at 8pm.
* FOX did have Texas-Kansas in its leaked list.  I'm moving away from that and giving Texas Tech-Kansas St. the 3:30pm slot
* Yes, I crammed four games into ABC's 3:30pm slot.  SEC overcrowding from other slots never helps.  I know the Pac-12 games are supposed to be full national, at least that's what they've told us.  Not much I can do.
* Pac-12 Network is expected to do a tripleheader

12pm ESPN/ESPN2 & WatchESPN: Iowa at Northwestern (time confirmed)
12pm ESPN/ESPN2 & WatchESPN: Tennessee at South Carolina
12pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: Ole Miss at Arkansas
12pm FSN: Baylor at Iowa St.
12pm BTN & BTN2Go: Indiana at Illinois (time confirmed)
12pm SEC Network & ESPN3: Texas A&M at Auburn
12pm Big East Network & ESPN3: Syracuse at USF
12:30pm ACC Network & ESPN3: NC State at North Carolina
3pm F/X: Oregon St. at Washington
3pm Pac-12 Network & Pac-12.com: Washington St. at Stanford
3pm ACC RSNs & ESPN3: Maryland at Boston College
3:30pm FOX: Texas Tech at Kansas St.
3:30pm CBS & CBSSports.com: Florida vs. Georgia (confirmed)
3:30pm ABC/ESPN2 RM & WatchESPN: Michigan St. at Wisconsin (confirmed)
3:30pm ABC/ESPN2 RM & ESPN3: Colorado at Oregon
3:30pm ABC & ESPN3: TCU at Oklahoma St.
3:30pm ABC & ESPN3: Duke at Florida St.
3:30pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: BYU at Georgia Tech
3:30pm FSN: Texas at Kansas
3:30pm BTN & BTN2Go: Purdue at Minnesota
6pm ESPN & WatchESPN: Ohio St. at Penn St.
6:30pm Pac-12 Network & Pac-12.com: California at Utah
7pm ESPN2 & WatchESPN: Michigan at Nebraska
7pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: Kentucky at Missouri
7pm FSN: Navy at East Carolina (selected, time not confirmed)
7pm SEC/FOX RSNs & ESPN3: Massachusetts at Vanderbilt
8pm ABC: Notre Dame at Oklahoma
9:15pm ESPN & WatchESPN: Mississippi St. at Alabama
10:30pm ESPN & WatchESPN: USC at Arizona
10:30pm Pac-12 Network & Pac-12.com: UCLA at Arizona St.

ESPN3 Exclusives
Utah St. at UTSA
Temple at Pittsburgh

Friday, October 12, 2012

Week 8 Late Selection Guesses

So many games were left to six day selections that I guess its worth doing guesses against them.  I'll break it down by conference and, more or less, the order that the dominoes will likely fall.

I'm making some assumptions.  Yell at me later if you think I'm on drugs if I don't pick your team.

SEC
Alabama at Tennessee, ESPN 12pm
LSU at Texas A&M, CBS 3:30pm
South Carolina at Florida, ESPN 7pm
Middle Tennessee at Mississippi St., FOX RSNs 7pm
Georgia at Kentucky, ESPN2 7:45pm

Big Ten
Michigan St. at Michigan, ESPN2 12pm
Purdue at Ohio St., BTN 12pm
Nebraska at Northwestern, ABC w/reverse mirror 3:30pm

Big 12
Texas Tech at TCU, F/X 12pm
Iowa St. at Oklahoma St., ABC w/reverse mirror 3:30pm
Baylor at Texas, ABC 8pm

NOTE: USF-Louisville in this scenario becomes a ABC regional game with ESPN3/Gameplan needed to see it in other areas.

ACC
Virginia Tech at Clemson, ABC 12pm
Duke at North Carolina, ESPNU 7pm

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Postscript on 10/13 CFB TV selections

10/13 TV selections

* I don't know that it is 100% set in stone that Oregon St.-BYU will be reverse mirrored with Illinois-Michigan in Big Ten areas.  I know ESPN PR tweeted it was a split national telecast.  I say proceed with caution.  There may be dependencies on the West Virginia-Texas Tech and Washington St.-Oregon St. games, in addition to Utah St.-BYU.  ESPN's website schedule just lists the games as ABC, though what is known is that Illinois-Michigan will be mirrored on ESPN to those who don't see it on ABC.  The Big 12 contract doesn't require every game be full national, nor does it have a limit on reverse mirror games.  Stay tuned.  Wait for maps.

* I think the lack of flexibility that the Big Ten provides with respect to homecoming games hampers some network selections.  I agree with the need to limit and confirm night games early in the year, but don't understand the need to tie down homecoming kickoff times.

* The addition of the Texas A&M-Louisiana Tech game to the day, and the Bulldogs great play so far, added several twists to the scheduling.  A fourth ESPNU window was shoehorned in to the schedule to play this game at night and all other ESPNU windows were moved up one hour.  ESPNU initially was to replay their Midnight Madness coverage from the night before.

* Regardless of the A&M-LaTech being added to the schedule, one game was going to be put on ESPN3 from either the ACC or the Big East.  Part of the problem ESPN has with the glut of games it is trying to fit on their networks.

* Don't know if there is a limit on the number of 8:15pm local time starts the SEC will allow in a given season.  I know that the Big 12 does limit it.  That could be why the ESPN2 evening windows were pushed up a little with Boston College-Florida St. starting at 5:30pm ET (up from 6pm) and Tennessee-Mississippi St. at 9pm ET (up from 9:15pm).

* ESPN appears to have used both of its SEC priority picks for 2012 as part of allowing CBS to carry LSU-Alabama in primetime in 2011.  On 9/22 LSU-Auburn was the selection per ESPN's Brett McMurphy and the 10/13 selection of South Carolina-LSU was the other pick per Tuscaloosa News' Cecil Hurt.

* The new Big 12 contract rules (or lack of rules) shows up again with concurrent windows for ABC and FOX cable during both the Red River Shootout national window and the ABC 3:30pm window.  FOX did appear to adjust things with their Big 12 windows.  FOX College Sports showed Big 12 games on FSN at 12pm and 3:30pm with a C-USA game at 7pm.  The 12pm and 7pm windows have flip flopped. Maybe the conference wanted to have an evening game or did not want to overload the 12pm window with games on ABC, F/X and FSN at the same time.

* Don't know how close the NHL is to cancelling regular season games, since the regular season does start next Thursday.  But several RSNs are waiting to add college football games like FSN mid-afternoon and evening games, depending on the status of the NHL lockout.

* Administrative note: Due to travel next week, there's a decent chance I won't be blogging about selections, selection predictions or a look back at the selections made.  In the words of Mike Leach, "don't let it hamp your day".

Monday, October 1, 2012

Apology on 10/13 confirmations

I played a little too fast & loose with the last couple, particularly the Oregon St.-BYU game.  Didn't have complete info on Oregon St.-BYU and didn't read the info out there completely on West Virginia-Texas Tech.   Will do better.

10/13 CFB TV Confirmations

Should be able to update this as the announcements come out this week

What I thought should happen
Complete list of games

11am ESPNU & WatchESPN: Louisville at Pittsburgh
12pm ABC: Oklahoma vs. Texas
12pm F/X: Kansas St. at Iowa St.
12pm ESPN/ESPN2 & WatchESPN: Northwestern at Minnesota
12pm ESPN/ESPN2 & WatchESPN: Iowa at Michigan St.
12pm FSN: UAB at Houston
12pm BTN & BTN2Go: Wisconsin at Purdue
12pm Big East Net & ESPN3: Syracuse at Rutgers
12pm SEC Net & ESPN3: Auburn at Ole Miss
12:30pm ACC Net & ESPN3: Duke at Virginia Tech
1pm ESPN3: Temple at Connecticut
2pm ESPN3: Akron at Ohio
2:30pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: North Carolina at Miami (FL)
3pm FOX: Utah at UCLA
3pm ACC RSNs & ESPN3: Maryland at Virginia
3pm ESPN3: Western Michigan at Ball St.
3:30pm CBS & CBSSports.com: Alabama at Missouri
3:30pm ABC & ESPN3: West Virginia at Texas Tech
3:30pm ABC/ESPN & ESPN3: Illinois at Michigan (confirmed)
3:30pm ABC/ESPN: Oregon St. at BYU
3:30pm FSN: Oklahoma St. at Kansas
5:30pm ESPN2 & WatchESPN: Boston College at Florida St.
6pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: Florida at Vanderbilt
7pm FOX: USC at Washington
7pm FSN: TCU at Baylor
7pm SEC/FOX RSNs & ESPN3: Kentucky at Arkansas
8pm ESPN & WatchESPN: South Carolina at LSU
9pm ESPN2 & WatchESPN: Tennessee at Mississippi St.
9:15pm ESPNU & WatchESPN: Texas A&M vs. Louisiana Tech
10:30pm Pac-12 Net & Pac-12.com: California at Washington St.